By CRU Aluminum Advisor Greg Wittbecker The fundamentals in the aluminum market are continuing to tighten as we complete the third quarter. Growing Deficit in 2021 Driven by Chinese and Canadian Production Excursions CRU has substantially increased the size of the global deficit for 2021, moving it from a 240,000-ton surplus to a deficit of 1,180,000 […]
In the near term, ferrous scrap prices are heading down. But in the long term – with the proliferation of electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking around the globe putting added pressure on scrap supplies – the price trend for scrap is definitely pointing upward. The cost of scrap and other metallics is of high interest […]
I was pleased to see many of you this past week in Atlanta at the SMU Steel Summit. It is certainly one of the largest (and most significant) steel conferences in the United States. This year was a first – a hybrid conference, with about 800 in-person attendees and 300 virtual. I doubt it will […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor After rising at end-August, iron ore prices have started pointing downward again in the past week as Chinese demand remains tepid while seaborne supply has been at the strongest level since end-June. Iron ore is currently trading at $135.5 /dmt, down by $18.5 /dmt […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and CRU Chief Economist and Head of Sustainability Jumana Saleheen A disappointing outlook for U.S. Q3 growth, and the problems in China’s construction sector, have led us to downgrade our forecast for 2021 world growth from 5.8% to 5.4%. Our forecast for 2021 growth in Industrial Production has been revised […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service, Nov. 18 The world economy is facing multiple headwinds. Supply-chain problems continue to hold back industrial sectors and elevate inflation. Meanwhile, an energy crisis is adding to the pressure on manufacturers and consumers. On the demand side, the biggest risk remains the Chinese […]
We are seeing (again) the disruption that unexpected news can bring. Just when we thought we were out of the woods (no pun intended), we see a resurgence of hospitalizations from COVID, the fall of Afghanistan, perhaps the unluckiest country in the world, a major earthquake in Haiti, perhaps the second unluckiest, and a hurricane […]
By CRU Senior Editor Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) fell by 4.8% in August to 393.8, making it the first reading below the 400 level since May. Price falls for scrap and HBI were similar in scale, but pig iron prices have moved notably lower. Demand […]
June apparent steel supply rose 270,000 tons over May to 9.38 million net tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. This is the highest suppy level seen since January 2020, surpassing the May 2021 recent-high of 9.11 million tons. June supply is up by 2.47 million […]
U.S. steel exports rose 5% in June to 778,000 tons, according to new U.S. Department of Commerce trade data. This marks the second highest monthly export level in the last three years, just behind the April 2021 high of 790,000 tons. Of our six monitored product groups, four products declined month-over-month and two increased. Recall that 2020 […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor The iron ore price decline continues as demand for spot cargoes in China is exceptionally weak, while we have started seeing signs of improving supply from Australia. On Tuesday, Aug. 10, CRU assessed the 62% Fe fines price at $160.0 /dmt, a $25.0 […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Prices fell w/w in southern Europe and China but were stable in Asia and up somewhat in India. Prices in the U.S. again were the outlier this week, rising by three times as much as anywhere else. In fact, the differential between U.S. […]
Ternium thinks that North American steel prices might move lower later this year but that they will bottom at a new, higher level than in previous cycles, the company’s top executive said. “Prices are probably going to begin a downtrend at some point during the second half. But I don’t expect this to be a […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor Iron ore has continued its fall by registering a $15 /dmt drop in the past week after steep declines at the end of last week, followed by a slight rebound on Monday and Tuesday. Chinese buying interest has subsided quickly as the number […]
New orders, production and employment grew in July despite a deceleration is supplier deliveries and growing backlogs, said the Institute for Supply Management in the July 2021 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The Manufacturing PMI fell 1.1 percentage points in July to 59.5%, still above 50% and indicating expansion in the overall economy for the […]
The Biden administration has resolved, at least in part, a potentially serious conflict over currency exchange rates with Vietnam. This could be a signal that other trade problems might also be resolved. Exchange rates matter to economists and businesses, and therefore to the rest of us, because a “weak” currency abroad will facilitate exports to countries […]
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.5% in the second quarter of 2021 on an annualized basis, according to the advanced estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). While the gain was the second-fastest pace of growth in 38 years, it was a disappointing mark, falling short of forecasts for 8% GDP. The second […]
What’s this world coming to when an integrated steelmaker – a leader in an industry notorious for taking a huge toll on the environment – spends much of his earnings call talking about cutting carbon emissions? Said Lourenco Goncalves, Cleveland-Cliffs’ chief executive, last week: “Cliffs sees decarbonization as part of our license to continue to […]
May apparent steel supply rose 340,000 tons over April to 9.11 million net tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. This is now the highest suppy level seen since January 2020, surpassing the March 2021 recent high of 8.96 million tons. May supply is up by 2.51 million […]
NLMK USA sales surged in the second quarter on strong demand and increased slab supplies from its parent company in Russia. The U.S. subsidiary of Lipetsk, Russia-based NLMK Group recorded flat-rolled steel sales volumes of 502,000 metric tonnes in the first quarter. That’s up 17% from 431,000 tonnes in the first quarter and up 52% […]
I’ve heard more than a few times now that we should keep a close eye out for falling steel prices because, “Look what happened in lumber.” In case you’ve been under a rock (or tree), lumber prices fell more than 40% in June, their biggest monthly drop on record, according to CNBC and others. What […]
Auto assemblies in North America rose further in June despite a continued struggle with the global semiconductor shortage. Some automakers in the region—including GM and Toyota—were able to ramp up production and shipments after securing enough microchips, pushing the annual rate in the North American region up by 16.4% month on month, according to LMC […]
U.S. GDP grew by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2021 on an annualized basis, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) third and final revision. The third revision saw no change in overall GDP compared to the advance and second estimates; however, upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and exports […]
Ferrous scrap prices, like finished steel prices, have been on the rise for most of the year (see chart), but could see a pause in August. Sources tell Steel Market Update they expect obsolete grades to trade $20/GT lower next month, while prime prices will most likely remain unchanged. “Obsolete grades should trade in the […]
The Russian government has proposed levying tariffs on the country’s ferrous and non-ferrous exports from Aug.1 until year-end to offset extra costs faced by the state’s sub-contractors due to much higher metal prices. “In order to rule out price manipulation during export, as well as the temptation to understate the value of export contracts and […]
By CRU Prices Analyst Estelle Tran U.S. sheet prices are still trending higher, which has supported further gains in raw materials, slabs and imported steel. Even though CRU HR coil prices have increased 7.4% m/m to $1,655 /s.ton on June 16, market contacts still report a lack of workable offers, especially given lead times into […]
April apparent steel supply declined 189,000 tons from March’s high to 8.77 million net tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. This is the second highest suppy level seen since January 2020, just behind the March 2021 high. April supply is up 2.24 million tons compared […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis We have just refreshed our expectations on aluminum for 2021 in our latest of the CRU Aluminum Market Outlook. Here are some of the key takeaways: Demand Is Strong The World ex China is into its recovery from the the Covid-19 pandemic. We expect to see sharp year-on-year growth […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Ten years ago the aluminum can, and the aluminum sheet mills that supplied them, looked to be on borrowed time. Aluminum beverage can shipments, as reported by the Can Manufacturers Institute (CMI) had been flatlining for years. Can manufacturers were consolidating, with Ball and Ardagh acquiring Rexam assets in […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis On June 28, the Russian government announced the imposition of a 15% tax on aluminum exports. The tax is effective for the period August through December 2021 and covers most primary aluminum exports. This appears to be a case of the Russian government making an opportunistic “raid” on one […]