Occasionally, a story jolts you awake. You realize how much things have changed—once, a pro-trade remark from a senior government official was routine. Now, it is remarkable. Last week the President’s Export Council (PEC), an advisory group currently chaired by Mark Ein of Kastle Systems, met for the first time since the Obama administration. The […]
The United States and Indian governments have agreed to terminate six disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Benefits from the settlement include opening the US to more shipments of steel and aluminum made in India, according to New Delhi. “As a part of the agreement, the US has agreed to grant market access to […]
China’s recent reopening, coupled with increased government spending on infrastructure, has led Fitch Ratings to upgrade the outlook for the global steel sector from deteriorating to neutral. The New York-based ratings agency revised China’s steel sector outlook to neutral as well, according to a research note sent to SMU. China’s “stronger-than-expected infrastructure growth and a […]
China’s recent reopening, coupled with increased government spending on infrastructure, has led Fitch Ratings to upgrade the outlook for the global steel sector from deteriorating to neutral. The New York-based ratings agency revised China’s steel sector outlook to neutral as well, according to a research note sent to SMU. China’s “stronger-than-expected infrastructure growth and a […]
A rare state visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India culminated in a joint statement by President Biden and the prime minister last Thursday. This was a blockbuster statement, covering 58 paragraphs and resolving or narrowing differences on a host of issues. Some disputes had been festering for years. Despite pre-meeting statements advising that […]
North American auto assemblies saw nearly an 11% boost in May, posting the second-best monthly total year to date. The month’s assemblies were also nearly 18% higher year-on-year (YoY), according to LMC Automotive data. A modest decline was seen in supply levels in April, but that easing was in part due to seasonal factors and […]
Metallics prices have fallen in most global markets over the last month, driven by weak steel demand and improved metallics supply. Lower finished steel prices and EAF margins have weighed heavily on metallics prices across major markets. Scrap bids from key buyers have reduced further amid ample availability, while recent pig iron price cuts have […]
Sometimes it seems the whole world is downstream of the steel industry. Now, that may be a side effect of spending my days immersed in lead times, steel buyers sentiment, and hot-rolled coil futures. That would be a fair assessment. However, looking into the testimonies from the Congressional Steel Caucus’ recent hearing on June 7 […]
After hitting an almost five-year high in March, US steel exports fell back during the month of April. Exports totaled 768,235 net tons in April, according to the latest figures available from the US Department of Commerce. This was a 13% month-on-month (MoM) and a 7% year-on-year (YoY) decline. Note that March exports of 886,458 […]
The US and European Union are working on an agreement dealing with carbon emissions in the steel industry. The impact on bilateral trade could be high. In 2021, the US and EU agreed that the US would suspend the 25% Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, and the EU would drop its World Trade […]
The LME aluminum three-month price is moving higher again as the week ending June 9 closes trading at $2,230/t. Failing to dip below the critical transition price of $2,000/t, The LME steadied itself despite very lackluster demand anywhere in the world. Trading in China also kept the regional exchange there neutral, if not a bit […]
Go figure, in the last month, HR spot has continued to decline. The index tied to CME HR futures has given up $140/ST ($1,130/ST to $990/ST). A look at the fundamentals would appear to support the latest market direction. The list includes declining steelmaking component prices (zinc, coking coal, iron ore and scrap), a sharply […]
I wanted a fresh perspective on the steel market this week, so I turned to a new voice – namely, ChatGPT. I won’t weigh in on whether the AI-driven chatbot is a useful tool, an extinction-level threat, or just another shiny object. That said, ChatGPT has been available publicly since Nov. 30, 2022. And it […]
North American auto assemblies declined by 15.5% in April, edging down for the first time year-to-date, and for the first time since last November. Last month’s assemblies, however, were still 7.8% higher year-on-year (YoY), according to LMC Automotive data. While supply levels began to rebound in the second half of last year, inventories fell modestly in […]
Sheet prices came down harder than I expected this week. I probably shouldn’t have been surprised. For starters, mills are still making money at these levels, so there is not a lot of friction to lowering prices to get an order. Also, lead times are or will soon be overlapping with a period when we’re […]
US apparent steel supply rose 6% in March to 8.03 million net tons compared to the previous month, according to data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Apparent steel supply is determined by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then deducting total US […]
Since 1997, the US Department of Commerce has had a regulation permitting an “expedited review” of subsidy determinations in countervailing duty investigations. The importers of subject merchandise in these cases are often denied individual subsidy rates because Commerce lacks the resources to investigate every company. To compensate for the department’s insufficient resources, any company not […]
Premiums for aluminum in the US took fell again last week following a period of stability after the Federal Reserve stepped in the wake of the closure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Economic struggles have continued to depress shipment volumes into Q2, and many major macro data points are still muddied. Last week another bank […]
We have a few confrontations this week. President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy are scheduled to meet this week on resolving the debt ceiling confrontation. Some sort of compromise seems likely, but a cataclysm involving government default is hardly out of the question. The time for agreement is nigh—US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has moved […]
CRU expects metallics prices to continue trending down in May 2023 as supply will continue to outpace demand in most markets. In the US, obsolete scrap prices are expected to move lower as the inflow to scrap yards will pick up seasonally, and dealers get more inclined to sell. In Europe, the macroeconomic environment will […]
Steel exports from the US increased 8% in February from the previous month, according to the latest US Commerce Department data. Total exports for February were 786,223 tons vs. 728,907 tons in January. This is the highest exports have been since August 2022 when they were at 800,677 tons. Canada led the way with 350,998 tons of exports. […]
Fresh off another rate hike from the Fed, US macro data came in mixed during the month of March. The final update for GDP in Q4 2022 showed 2.6% growth, which was down slightly month over month and below expectations. Consumer spending has also been revised down consistently over each update on the Q4 figures. […]
The LME aluminum three-month price steadied this week despite a whirlwind of upsetting news, finding its footing near $2,300 per metric ton. That’s below the $2,500-per-ton mark we saw as 2023 opened on a more optimistic tone. The recent news from across the geopolitical and macroeconomic scene has dampened demand sentiment in the near term. […]
North American auto assemblies rose 1.3%% in February, expanding for a second straight month after declining repeatedly to close out 2022. Last month’s assemblies are 8.4% higher year-on-year (YoY), according to LMC Automotive data. Despite the repeated increases through February, production hasn’t topped the 1.2-million-unit mark since November. And while inventories have improved, the market remains […]
The US International Trade Commission issued a report to Congress last week on the impact of the Section 232 import restrictions on steel and aluminum and the tariffs on imports from China under Section 301. The report catalogued significant injury to downstream industries. Namely, those that use steel or aluminum in manufacturing. The losses were […]
The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) for March increased by 7.4% month-on-month to 357.7, the highest level since last June. The main developments have been in Turkey, where the tragic earthquake initially had a negative effect on scrap buying from the largest scrap importing country, though in the second half of February this quickly turned […]
Total US mill shipments of steel products increased in January, recovering from a 23-month low the month prior. January’s shipments were the highest since last August and totaled 7.63 million tons, a 6.5% increase from December’s 7.17 million tons. Apparent supply also saw a month-on-month (MoM) increase in January, up 7.9% vs. the prior month. This analysis […]
The steel industry in the US, and across much of the developed world, finds itself between two greens. On the one hand is the constant innovation towards sustainable, decarbonized “green” steel. And, on the other, is a more traditional green, the bottom line: money. The hope is to keep the two aligned, increasing profits while […]
By CRU Senior Analyst, Puneet Paliwal, from CRU’s Scrap, DRI/HBI & Pig Iron Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) for March rose by 7.4% month on month (MoM), to 357.7, which is its highest value since June 2022. Strong Turkish buying of scrap and pig iron since the second half of February is the key […]
The White House recently released the president’s 2024 federal budget proposal. It is a huge document, proposing to spend nearly $7 trillion during the year beginning Oct. 1. That is a significant increase over the FY2023 budget approved by Congress. It even surpasses federal spending during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. For those oncerned […]