On Wednesday this week the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the advance estimate of Q2 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts. In addition to the regular revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and for the first quarter of 2014, GDP and select components were revised back to […]
The SMU Key Market Indicators is a Premium Level product produced by Peter Wright in collaboration with Steel Market Update. Our Executive Level members have been getting access to all of the Premium Level data for the month of July (today is the last day). This includes access to all of the Premium data which […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 4.5 in June to 90.9. The view of the present situation rose by 2.0 to 88.3 as expectations rose by 6.3 to 92.7, these two components have now converged as they always do at this stage of a recovery after which the view of the present situation will take […]
Home prices grew moderately in May according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. On a year-over-year basis the 10-City Composite gained 9.4 percent and the 20-City gained 9.3 percent, down from the previous y/y gains reported last month of 10.9 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted gains of 1.1 […]
New home sales were disappointing in June, dropping 8.1 percent below the revised rate May rate of 442,000 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 406,000, according to estimates by the US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. The drop is “a return to trend rather than a change of direction,” says […]
Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC has the honors this week to discuss the financial and HRC, iron ore and scrap futures markets in an attempt to make sense out of what can sometimes feel like total chaos. Financial Markets: Well we’re at all time highs again, having hit an intraday on the September S&P […]
Statistical data out of China is always questioned for a number of reasons, not least is, “Is the data politically motivated.” Other suspicions arise because China gets their data out faster than any other major economy and the data is never revised. Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and […]
Existing home sales rose 2.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.04 million in June according to a report by the National Association of Home Realtors. Sales were at the highest rate since October 2013 but 2.3 percent below the rate in June 2013. “Inventories are at their highest level in over a year […]
A first glance suggests that the June housing starts report was depressing, total starts at 893,000 were down from 985,000 in May and 1,063,000 in April. However the three month moving average (3MMA) in June was 980,000 which was exactly the same as April. Not progress but not a calamity either. Even on a 3MMA […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United […]
The next shale oil and gas boom could be in Texas according to the estimates of volume of recoverable oil in the Cline Shale formation. More than 30 billion barrels of recoverable oil lie underground in Cline Shale according to studies by Devon Energy and Chesapeake Energy. It is estimated there are approximately 3.6 million […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a quarterly forecast to the HARDI members located in the […]
As you may have noticed, we have been writing a series of articles highlighting the benefits of our Premium membership. Through the end of July, our Executive members will have access to our Premium content. If you have not yet explored our Premium content, such as SMU’s survey data or imports by product/port/country, I would […]
The following article is a Premium Level article written by Peter Wright: Each month the Commerce Department issues its construction put in place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. May data was released on July 1st and all historical data was revised back to January 2008. This long term […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. We have made two changes this month to try to make this even more representative of the market. Both the long and flat products shipment rows have been changed from “shipments” to […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus our own graphical analysis. The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end […]
Home prices on an annual basis slowed more than expected in April according to the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices. Indices for both the 10 and 20-city composites showed an annual gain of 10.8 percent, down from 12.4 percent in March and lower than economist expectations of 11.4 percent. Annual gains were lower in 19 […]
Sales of new single-family home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000 in May, the highest level since May 2008, according to Census Bureau data. Sales were well above analyst estimates of 415,000 to 462,000, surging 18.6 percent above the revised April rate of 425,000 and 16.9 percent above the May 2013 […]
Dr. Chris Kuehl, one of our Steel Summit keynote speakers and Managing Director of Armada Corporate Intelligence, provides a monthly overview of economic and global risks facing the U.S. economy and the steel industry. Armada’s June summary is as follows: 1. GDP growth expectation has dropped to 2.1% for the full year, but… The IMF, […]
Builder confidence in the new built, single-family housing market rose in June. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) registered 49, just a point below the reading of 50 that indicates good building conditions. “After several months of little fluctuation, a four-point uptick in builder sentiment is a welcome sign […]
Total housing starts declined from 1,071,000 in April to 1,001,000 in May but the three month moving average (3MMA) increased from 983,000 in April to 1,007,000 in May. It looks as though April was a bounce back from the severe winter delays and that May reverted to trend. Figure 1 shows total housing starts from […]
Industry and economic data is always subject to inaccuracies so we at SMU try to compare different data sources to get the best handle on a situation. Housing and non-residential construction starts are examples that come to mind. In the case of steel imports we have three reports produced by the US Department of Commerce: […]
The housing bubble in China has popped according to economists. The oversupply of housing and shortage of developer financing will slow China’s GDP growth to less than 6 percent in 2014 says a recent report by Japanese investment company Nomura. Nomura says a “hard landing” may be in China’s future due to a 33 percent […]
Building permit values in Canada rose 1.1 percent to $6.0 billion in April following two months of decline. Building intentions for the residential sector offset the decline in nonresidential. Commercial sector permit values fell 14.8 percent to $1.3 billion in April. The decline followed a 0.3 percent gain the previous month and put commercial permit […]
The steel storage facilities located at ports around the United States are brimming with foreign steel. We have been advised that companies like Kinder Morgan and Fleetwood Port Services are at maximum capacity in their Houston facilities and struggling with Savannah, Camden and other port facilities. However, that is not the major problem facing the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index is still on hold to enable the staff to complete a major re-vamp of the […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its construction put in place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. April data was released on June 2nd. Total Construction: Data is reported on both a seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted basis. In the SMU analysis we consider only the non-adjusted data and remove […]
As usual we will spend a few moments taking a look at the month of May in our rear view mirror to see what transpired. SMU Price Momentum Indicator was adjusted during the month from Higher to Neutral as we detected a change in the supply/demand dynamics with the return to full production at US […]
Economic indicators were mostly positive in May. Housing starts and sales improved while the ABI dropped. Respondents to the various economic surveys were generally upbeat about future economic and business conditions. Steel buyers looked for more of the same activity for the next six months. The abbreviated breakdown follows. New home sales bounced back in […]
Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution instructor penned the following commentary on the financial, iron ore, scrap and steel markets and the results of trading on the HRC and BUS Futures markets over this past week. More information about futures can […]