Mexican steelmakers are feeling the pressure from unfairly traded steel. In a joint statement on last week, Altos Hornos de Mexico (AHMSA), De Acero, Tubacero and ArcelorMittal accused Russia, China and Turkey of dumping steel at prices below production costs. In a full page newspaper ad, the steel companies urged President Enrique Pena Nieto to […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
On Monday, President Obama signed into law the bill that contains the “Level the Playing Field” act. This is the bill that made some potentially significant changes to trade laws, including changing the criteria for “material injury” findings and increasing penalties for foreign respondents that do not provide information requested by the Commerce Department. This […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce updated the June license data late this afternoon. Based on the latest results the total foreign steel import trend appears will be below 3.0 million net tons. Last week the trend was suggesting imports of 3.0-3.2 million net tons and the week before that the trend was 3.2-3.3 million net […]
Seaborne Freight The dry bulk market may have bottomed out in May and has been steadily creeping higher during June. The Baltic Dry Index closed at 823 on Friday, June 26. The BDI peaked on November 5, 2014 when the Index was at 1484 and dropped as low as 509 on Feb. 18, 2015. The […]
Take the time to read the article in tonight’s issue about what the new trade legislation will mean to how injury or material injury is determined. I spoke with one of my sources last week who told me that this legislation will be a “game changer” for those who import foreign steel. No longer will […]
Today (June 25, 2015), the House passed HR 1295 which includes extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act and other trade preference programs, as well as the renewal of Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) and improved AD/CVD laws that will benefit the steel industry. The measure passed by a vote of 286-138. Today’s vote follows […]
The Department of Commerce said Wednesday that it will proceed on AD/CVD investigations of imports of corrosion-resistant steel products from China, India, Italy, Korea, and Taiwan. A petition to investigate the products was filed on June 3, 2015 by US Steel, Nucor, ArcelorMittal USA, AK Steel, Steel Dynamics, and California Steel Industries. The products covered […]
Total steel imports, based on the just released Preliminary Census Data out of the US Department of Commerce, slide lower for the 4th month in a row. May imports are now being referenced as being 3,374,427 net tons (3.065 million metric tons) and we expect Final Census numbers to be very close to this 3.374 […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q1 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Wednesday. The annualized growth rate in the third estimate was -0.17 percent down from Q4 2014 which came in at 2.2 percent. GDP is measured and reported in chained 2009 dollars and […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce (USDOC) released the latest foreign steel import license data through the 23rd of June. Based on the latest data, the trend is for steel imports to continue to slide towards the magical 3.0 million net tons mark. Last week the data was suggesting imports would be about 3.2-3.3 million net […]
The Mexican government said it will impose import duties on cold-rolled steel from China following an antidumping investigation initiated by Altos Hornos de Mexico (AHMSA), Ternium and other Mexican steel companies. The Friday, June 19 decision will put tariffs of 65.99 percent imports on imports from Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd and 82.08 percent […]
The big picture is as follows: from the 2015 Article IV Consultation with the United States of America Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission May 28, 2015 (heavily abridged by SMU). “At current levels of the real exchange rate, the U.S. dollar is assessed to be moderately overvalued. As a result, the current account deficit […]
Steel Dynamics reported adjusted second quarter earnings guidance in the range of $0.20 to $0.24 per share, an improvement over $0.17 per share in first quarter. Not included in the earnings guidance is $29 million of expenses associated with the idling of the Minnesota operations and $9 million in reduced earnings due to a planned […]
I was advised by the US Department of Commerce that they will announce tomorrow (Wednesday, June 24) whether they will “…initiate AD and CVD investigations of imports of corrosion-resistant steel products from China, India, Italy, Korea and Taiwan.” We will have a fact sheet from them outlining their decision and we will provide it to […]
Light vehicle sales in the US skyrocketed in May to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 17.8 million units. This is the strongest pace in almost 10 years. Auto sales were 7.4 million in April and rose to 8.1 million in May. Light trucks rose from 9.1 to 9.7 million. Imports in May were 3.8 […]
Written by: John Packard, Publisher, Steel Market Update Last Thursday evening Ray Culley (SMU) and I attended the Chicago regional meeting of the Association of Steel Distributors (ASD) at the Hotel Sofitel Water Tower in downtown Chicago. The speaker for the evening was Chicago based trade attorney Larry Friedman. His practice concentrates on the representation […]
Steel Market Update has been asked a number of times to define, or help our readers to understand, what is “injury” when it comes to the domestic steel industry. Last week we heard from trade attorney Larry Friedman at the Association of Steel Distributors Meeting in Chicago that injury was losing sales, the lowering of […]
In its second quarter 2015 earnings guidance, AK Steel said it expects to report a net loss of $0.37 to $0.42 per diluted share of common stock. The company attributed negative results to low steel prices caused in part by high levels of unfairly traded imports. Shipments of 1.8 million were up 3 percent from […]
SMU Sentiment Index Jumps Since our last flat rolled steel market analysis and evaluation of how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful both three to six months from now (Future) as well as in today’s economic environment (Current), we have had a second price increase and a dumping […]
There has been some confusion over the customs bill that was passed by the House last week. The bill, HR 644 – Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015, was not part of the TAA/TPA package (HR 1314). Passage of the House bill will send it to committee where it will be reconciled with […]
Nucor’s second quarter guidance indicates earnings in the range of $0.20 to $0.25 per diluted share, below analyst consensus of $0.30 per share for the quarter. Earnings decreased from Q2 2014 at $0.46 per share and are comparable to $0.21 in Q1 2015. Overall operating performance is down from Q1. Prices are beginning to stabilize, […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.102 for May, down by 0.18 from April and down from the all-time high of 106.309 in November last year. The three month moving average, (3MMA) in May was 105.40, down by 0.23 from April. January […]
The USW negotiating committee for workers at ArcelorMittal USA met in Pittsburgh this week to begin working on new contracts. The current three year contracts will expire at 11:59 pm. EST, September 1, 2015. The master Basic Labor Contract covers employees at 12 ArcelorMittal USA facilities; three additional sites have contracts that will expire concurrent […]
We are starting to see signs that the June import numbers could be significantly below those of April and May which were both at 3.5 million net tons. The daily import license rate for June is at 109,662 tons per day and if the actual imports were to come in at that rate the month […]
A joint statement by eight steel trade associations calls for immediate action in addressing steel overcapacity and the increase in subsidized exports from China. The statement below has been issued by the following organizations: AISI, SMA, CSPA, SSINA, CPTI, Canacero, Alacero, Eurofer and the Turkish Steel Producers Assn and Brazilian Steel Institute. “There is a […]
The Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) “fast track” was passed by the House in a 219-211 vote on Friday. The Trade Adjustment Act (TAA), however, suffered a crushing defeat in a 126 to 302 vote. TAA would extend a program providing assistance to workers who lose their jobs as a consequence of trade deals and add […]
Steel Market Update was analyzing data from our last flat rolled market survey just as the domestic mills began announcing price increases. We thought our readers might be interested in looking at the data with us and then guess as to whether the new price increases will “stick” or falter over time. In our opinion, […]
An executive with a large service center group penned us some thoughts about the market (prior to the SSAB plate price increase) on Wednesday of this past week. “I was surprised at the June import-rate figures, with the forecast/possibility of 3+ million tons. It doesn’t seem like imports are falling as fast as expected for […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market to enable a side by side comparison and the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both supply and mill shipments of sheet […]