U.S. West Coast and Gulf ports seem to be in pretty good operating condition right now. The Port of Houston received over 6 million tons of steel imports in 2014, making it a record year for the port. In a “normal” year Houston can expect to see 3.5 to 4 million tons annually. Our Houston […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce updated July license data as of 5 PM today (Tuesday, July 21st). At the moment, the license data is “suggesting” that July imports will exceed those of June (June had 22 days and July has 23 days) by 100,000 to 200,000 tons. The daily license request rate for July is […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q2 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was unchanged in the Q2 at 7.0 percent which was faster than the 6.8 percent median forecast of 39 […]
Following the exceptional rate of vehicle sales in the US in May the June rate fell from 17.8 million annualized to 17.2 million which is a more sustainable rate. The June pace was still higher than the 16.9 million units average of the past 12 months. Demand is being supported by easier credit terms, sustained […]
This piece, written by Peter Wright, combines our own data analysis with recently published opinions about the iron ore, metallurgical coal and zinc markets that we find credible. Iron Ore: The Platts IODEX of 62% Fe delivered North China recovered to $61.25 per dry metric ton (dmt) on May 22nd but by July 10th had […]
On Friday, Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. Now why did we go and do that? We have been stuck in a very tight trading range on most flat rolled steels since late April of this year. Benchmark hot rolled, which is used by most in the […]
Contract negotiations are currently underway between the United Steel Workers and steel companies US Steel and ArcelorMittal. The companies each met with USW bargaining committee members in Pittsburgh to begin working out details of new three-year contracts to replace the current ones expiring Sept. 1. USW Committee members are expecting the first proposal from ArcelorMittal […]
Steel Market Update recently received data from Bradford Research covering Chinese production, trade, and consumption of steel and steel related products for the first six months 2015. It probably won’t come as any surprise that steel consumption is falling in China while exports, especially for finished steel products, are up by over 30 percent compared […]
The U.S. International Trade Commission voted today to continue their investigation of coated products (corrosion-resistant) which are primarily focused on hot dipped galvanized and Galvalume steels from China, India, Taiwan, South Korea and Italy. It was a foregone conclusion that the ITC would find enough of a threat for “material injury” to continue the investigation. […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Here is how Andre saw trading over the past week: Financial Markets: No Grexit worries are going to […]
A quick note that we will be updating the imports by port and country data for May later this afternoon. You can view the data sheets on our website here. Feel free to contact our office if you need any assistance at (800) 432 3475 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. This month the […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released the latest foreign steel import license data late this afternoon. The license data is suggesting that July steel imports will be higher than the 3.1 million net tons suggested by today’s adjustment to June’s license data. This is not a positive for the steel market. Two items of interest […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis in May, continue to be more than double that which existed before […]
According to the latest data released from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of May 2015 was 9,069,541 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. May supply […]
Steel Market Update queried U.S. domestic steel mills to hear what they have to say on the recently passed trade legislation. One of the executives who responded was Jim Baske, chief executive officer, ArcelorMittal North American Flat Rolled who said, “The steel industry in the United States faces significant competitive challenges from dumped and subsidized […]
Contract negotiations have kicked off between the United Steelworkers and US Steel Corp. USW officials and US Steel representatives met in Pittsburgh to begin ironing out the details of a new three year contract to replace the current one due to expire Sept. 1. The talks come at a time when the steel industry is […]
ArcelorMittal USA warns that low capacity utilization of hot strip mills cannot continue. “It is not sustainable to operate multiple HSMs at low utilization rates when the same volume of steel could be produced by few HSMs at higher utilization rates,” writes CEO Andrew Harshaw, in the ArcelorMittal USA blog Raw. Harshaw notes record levels […]
Final Census Data for May foreign steel imports was released by the U.S. Department of Commerce (US DOC) earlier today. Imports for May were 107,000 net tons lower than the month of April. The May 2015 number is 600,000 net tons lower than the 4,033,351 net tons received during the month of May 2014. June […]
Mexican steelmakers are feeling the pressure from unfairly traded steel. In a joint statement on last week, Altos Hornos de Mexico (AHMSA), De Acero, Tubacero and ArcelorMittal accused Russia, China and Turkey of dumping steel at prices below production costs. In a full page newspaper ad, the steel companies urged President Enrique Pena Nieto to […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
On Monday, President Obama signed into law the bill that contains the “Level the Playing Field” act. This is the bill that made some potentially significant changes to trade laws, including changing the criteria for “material injury” findings and increasing penalties for foreign respondents that do not provide information requested by the Commerce Department. This […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce updated the June license data late this afternoon. Based on the latest results the total foreign steel import trend appears will be below 3.0 million net tons. Last week the trend was suggesting imports of 3.0-3.2 million net tons and the week before that the trend was 3.2-3.3 million net […]
Seaborne Freight The dry bulk market may have bottomed out in May and has been steadily creeping higher during June. The Baltic Dry Index closed at 823 on Friday, June 26. The BDI peaked on November 5, 2014 when the Index was at 1484 and dropped as low as 509 on Feb. 18, 2015. The […]
Take the time to read the article in tonight’s issue about what the new trade legislation will mean to how injury or material injury is determined. I spoke with one of my sources last week who told me that this legislation will be a “game changer” for those who import foreign steel. No longer will […]
Today (June 25, 2015), the House passed HR 1295 which includes extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act and other trade preference programs, as well as the renewal of Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) and improved AD/CVD laws that will benefit the steel industry. The measure passed by a vote of 286-138. Today’s vote follows […]
The Department of Commerce said Wednesday that it will proceed on AD/CVD investigations of imports of corrosion-resistant steel products from China, India, Italy, Korea, and Taiwan. A petition to investigate the products was filed on June 3, 2015 by US Steel, Nucor, ArcelorMittal USA, AK Steel, Steel Dynamics, and California Steel Industries. The products covered […]
Total steel imports, based on the just released Preliminary Census Data out of the US Department of Commerce, slide lower for the 4th month in a row. May imports are now being referenced as being 3,374,427 net tons (3.065 million metric tons) and we expect Final Census numbers to be very close to this 3.374 […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q1 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Wednesday. The annualized growth rate in the third estimate was -0.17 percent down from Q4 2014 which came in at 2.2 percent. GDP is measured and reported in chained 2009 dollars and […]