The market did not collapse after our article about potential cracks in hot rolled. In fact, the hot rolled prices actual increased by $5 per ton while the other items remained intact at last week’s levels. Although SMU did collect data on hot rolled that was lower than the week prior, the lower offers were […]
SMU Price Momentum Indicator has been pointing to Higher flat rolled steel prices since late October (12 weeks). Based on our analysis of last week’s steel market trends survey as well as direct contact with buyers today, SMU Price Momentum has not changed and our expectation is for prices to move higher over the next […]
Are cracks starting to develop in the floor of steel prices? Are any cracks a harbinger to a reversal of flat rolled steel prices? It is too early to tell. However, buyers and sellers of steel need to be aware of that the markets may be in the early stage of change. Since the beginning […]
Manufacturing activity continued to improve in the Philadelphia area during January and is expected to continue to do so for the next six months, according to the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The index for current manufacturing index rose from 19.7 in December to 23.6 in January for […]
Steel mill lead times, the amount of time it takes for steel mills to produce new orders of hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized or Galvalume products, continue to remain extended according to the results of Steel Market Update flat rolled steel market trends analysis conducted during the course of this week. Hot rolled lead times […]
Flat rolled steel buyers reported the domestic steel mills as not willing to negotiate prices on flat rolled steel products. This is a continuation of the position we reported beginning in November after the initial flat rolled steel price increase announcements being made in late October. Only 17 percent of the respondents to our flat […]
Flat rolled steel prices continued their march higher this week in reaction to the latest price announcements made by the U.S. steel mills earlier this month. Where steel prices go from here will depend on lead times, the domestic mill order books and how much inventory is available. We will have a glimpse at each […]
Flat rolled steel prices are fast approaching the highs achieved during calendar year 2016. Today, Steel Market Update (SMU) released our new hot rolled coil index average at $625 per ton. This is within $10 per ton of the $635 per ton high reported during calendar year 2016. In the case of galvanized steel our […]
Steel Market Update participates in a monthly steel conference call hosted by HARDI (Heating, Air-conditioning, Refrigeration Distributors International). The call is dedicated to a better understanding of the galvanized steel market. The HARDI wholesalers are responsible for the supply of sheet steel and coil as well as other products to the mechanical contractors involved with […]
OK, don’t get freaked out (yet) as the new flat rolled steel base price increases aren’t really impacting the numbers for this week. However, there were a couple of steel mills already seeking higher hot rolled, cold rolled and coated prices prior to the announcement. We did collect some of that data in tonight’s steel […]
On Friday of this past week AK Steel announced a $40 per ton ($2.00/cwt) spot base price increase on all the flat rolled products they produce: hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized steels. On Monday morning, NLMK USA followed with the same $40 per ton announcement. We learned NLMK lead times are in February on […]
AK Steel and NLMK USA raised flat rolled steel prices by $40 per ton ($2.00/cwt) on all new spot sales of flat rolled steels (hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized). At the same time, SMU understands that Steel Dynamics has opened their order books for February and are quoting prices that are approximately $40 per ton […]
The steel buyers and sellers of steel who responded to our first flat rolled steel market trends survey of the New Year foretold the move by AK Steel to raise flat rolled steel prices late on Friday. Eighty-one percent of the respondents reported that they were expecting another flat rolled steel price increase (the 5th […]
On a single data basis both our Current Steel Buyers Sentiment Index and Future Sentiment Index are at the record highs for our index. Current Sentiment, which is how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the existing market environment, came in at +71 this week. […]
Flat rolled lead times remained essentially unchanged from what we reported during the middle of December. Steel mill order books appear to be “good” without creating excessive anxiety at their customers. At the moment, we will call lead times as being not too short and not too long but, just about right… Since early Tuesday […]
Steel mills continue to feel comfortable when negotiating with their customers. We found that only one quarter of the steel buyers responding to our survey for this week reported the mills as willing to discuss the possibility of adjusting (lowering) steel spot prices. We found this to be consistent across all flat rolled products: hot […]
Global manufacturing reached a three year high in December, finishing out the year with the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI at 52.7, up from 52.1 in November. After a flat first half, the second half of 2016 showed steady growth in the manufacturing sector. The December survey by IHS Markit indicates global manufacturing is growing at […]
Precision Metalforming Association members are looking forward to a spike in economic activity in the first quarter of 2017. The December 2016 survey of 115 metalforming companies in the U.S. and Canada shows 43 percent are expecting improved activity in the next three months, up from 21 percent in November. New orders are expected to […]
The engines are warming up and the expectation is for a better 2017 than 2016. The data we collected today was not significantly different than what we were seeing one week ago. Many mills are telling their customers they are on an “inquire only” basis when it comes to new spot orders. We are also […]
The data collected late last week and through the day today was spotty at best. However, we feel confident from the numbers we were able to collect to make some minor adjustments in our hot rolled and cold rolled indices. With the Holiday Week upon us SMU does not anticipate another round of price increases […]
Based on the results of the Steel Market Update flat rolled steel market trends analysis performed prior to the Holiday weekend steel mill lead times continue to be extended. The respondents to our survey reported on the amount of time it takes to get hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume produced from the time […]
There was little movement in the positions of the domestic steel makers when it came to their willingness to negotiate spot flat rolled steel prices this past week. Respondents to our final flat rolled steel market trends survey reported the steel mills as taking strong stances when it came to negotiating spot pricing on hot […]
Manufacturing surveys by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Richmond indicated that manufacturers are expecting positive business conditions in the first half of 2017. Activity is expected to be stronger in the Fifth District area than Texas but both regions see improvement conditions in the New Year. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Manufacturing activity […]
When it comes to coated steels (galvanized and Galvalume) the domestic steel mills are beginning to collect prices above the “minimum” guidance number of $820 per ton ($41.00/cwt). We are seeing some of the mills, including some of the smaller conversion mills, collecting as much as $840 per ton base pricing plus extras ($42.00/cwt). Hot […]
Late last week the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) released service center shipment and inventories data for the United States and Canada. We published both a general recap and a more complex analysis of the data in Thursday and Sunday issues of SMU. Steel Market Update has a proprietary model that we apply against the […]
A note about the MSCI data and carbon flat rolled inventories. The MSCI reported hot rolled supplies on the floor of the U.S. steel mills as being 2.21 months supply. Cold rolled and coated supplies were under 2.0 months based on MSCI statistics. Cold rolled was reported to be 1.90 months supply and coated at […]
Steel buyers and executives associated with the service center industry are reporting to Steel Market Update that end users are accepting that we are in a higher priced flat rolled steel environment and most have placed their first quarter 2017 tons. The expectation is for the market to “pause” here due to the holidays which […]
We have an unusual hot rolled futures market article tonight which will be dealt with in two segments: First, we will have an article written by Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC as he deals with the financial markets (S&P 500), oil and copper and then he has some comments about an errant trade which […]
There are a number of players in the market that are overly concerned (in my opinion) about the restart of the USS Granite City hot strip mill (they are not yet restarting the two idled blast furnaces so they are not adding any new raw steel production into the market) and Mingo Junction (reported to […]
Flat rolled prices rose again this week according to Steel Market Update sources. Our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume indices increased by $10 to $20 per ton and are very close to maximizing the increase announcements made two weeks ago. At that time the target was clearly set for $600 per ton hot […]