
SMU survey: Lead times shrink across the board
Steel mill lead times shortened for both sheet and plate products this week, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.
Steel mill lead times shortened for both sheet and plate products this week, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.
Negotiation rates have edged lower from our previous market check, a downward trend witnesses since July.
SMU’s steel price indices showed mixed signals for a second consecutive week. Our hot rolled, cold rolled, and plate price indices inched lower from last week, as the galvanized index held steady and Galvalume's ticked higher.
Domestic steel producers and the United Steelworkers (USW) union filed a barrage of trade cases last week. This is hardly news. Ever since the Commerce Department ruled that Vietnam is still treated as a nonmarket economy (NME) for antidumping purposes, many in the business expected new cases on the product that Vietnam excels at—“corrosion-resistant steel.” Nor is it a surprise that these cases roped in nine countries in addition to Vietnam: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, the Netherlands, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. All these countries rank in the top ten exporters of corrosion-resistant steel to the United States. These petitions are a broadside against coated flat-rolled steel imports.
Sheet prices didn’t roar back after Labor Day. But steel market news sure came out of the gate strong (or maybe chaotically is the better way to put it). First, the nearly $15-billion proposed sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel exploded into the news. And when I say exploded, I mean that all sides seem to be escalating things now.
US mills have filed or soon will file a sprawling trade petition against imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 countries. The petition seeks anti-dumping margins against Canada, Mexico, Brazil, the Netherlands, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, Taiwan, Australia, and South Africa. It also seeks countervailing duty margins against Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and Vietnam. That’s according documents dated Sept. 5 and addressed to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and International Trade Commission (ITC) Secretary Lisa Barton.
Welcome back from Labor Day, from Steel Summit, and from whatever fun you might have had over the long weekend. Personally, I enjoyed camping with friends and family near Starved Rock. No one starved, there were no major injuries, and we enjoyed the many splendors of Mystical Fire. (Speaking of which, does that have industrial uses? But I digress.)
SMU indices moved higher on cold rolled products this week, while galvanized prices were flat. Our indices for plate, hot rolled, and Galvalume all edged lower.
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. Our August report includes data updated through August 30th.
Current steel mill lead time averages are a few days longer than levels seen one month prior, but remain near historical lows for both sheet and plate products.
Steel buyers found mills slightly more willing to negotiate spot prices this week, according to our most recent survey data. Though this negotiation rate has ticked up vs. our previous market check, overall rates have been trending downward since July’s highs.
Nucor increased its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil to $695 per short ton (st), up $5/st from last week.
The Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) in the UK has proposed raising the tariff rate quota (TRQ) for imports of hot rolled sheet steel because of blast furnace closures at the Port Talbot works in south Wales. Tata Steel shut down one BF in July with the second to follow in September ahead of a switch […]
SMU’s sheet prices increased across the board this week, marking the third consecutive week of rising prices, while plate prices held stable.
Nucor’s weekly consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil is unchanged from last week at $690/ton.
SMU’s sheet prices rose by an average of $10 per short ton (st) this week on most products, the second consecutive week of recovering prices. Aside from the marginal uptick seen last week, this is the first instance of increasing sheet prices since the first week of April.
SMU’s Monthly Review articles summarize important steel market metrics for the prior month. Our July report contains figures updated through July 31.
Buyers continue to report very short mill lead times on sheet and plate products, according to our latest market canvass of steel service center and manufacturer executives
Steel buyers of sheet products say mills are still flexible on spot pricing this week, though less so than two weeks prior, according to our most recent survey data.
What a difference a week makes! SMU has shifted its sheet momentum indicators from “lower” to “neutral”. And we’ll be on the lookout for evidence of higher prices in the weeks ahead.
SMU’s sheet price was largely flat this week, an unusual sight for the better part of the past four months. The same trend was seen for tandem products and plate as well.
Japan’s Nippon Steel announced it was withdrawing from a joint venture (JV) with China's Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel) that served the Chinese automotive industry.
Nucor has raised its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil to $675 per short ton (st), up $25/st from last week.
Drilling activity rose in both the US and Canada last week, according to the latest data release from Baker Hughes. US rig activity increased to a six-week high but remains near multi-year lows. Canadian counts continue to improve, now at a 20-week high.
Cleveland-Cliffs announced on Friday that it would seek $670 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil. The steelmaker said the move was effectively immediately. It coincides with the opening of the company’s HR order book for September.
SMU has heard from some larger buyers who have stepped back into the market to buy at prices that, if not at a bottom, they assess to be close to one. Is it enough to stretch out lead times and send prices upward again? Or do we continue to scrape along the mid-$600s per short ton (st) as we have been doing for most of the last month?
Summer is here, and a familiar sentiment has hit the hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures market. Prices continue to decline in both the spot market and the futures market, with expectations of sub-$800 prices for the remainder of the year.
Galvanized prices have fallen precipitously from a month ago, though many market participants think a bottom is in sight.
SMU’s sheet price ranges slid again this week. But the declines were more pronounced on tandem products whereas prices for hot-rolled coil held roughly steady.
SMU’s Key Market Indicators include data on the economy, raw materials, manufacturing, construction, and steel sheet and long products. They offer a snapshot of current sentiment and the near-term expected trajectory of the economy. All told, nine key indicators point lower, 16 are neutral, and 13 point higher. One thing worth noting: The nine indicators pointing lower are all lagging indicators. Many of those pointing upward are leading indicators.