I’ve had questions from some of you lately about how we should think of the spread between hot-rolled (HR) coil prices and those for cold-rolled (CR) and coated product. Let’s assume that mills are intent on holding the line at least at $800 per short ton (st) for HR. The norm for HR-CR/coated spreads had been about $200 per short ton (st). That would suggest CR and coated base prices should be ~$1,000/st. Good luck finding anyone offering that.
SMU’s price for hot-rolled (HR) inched lower this week. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if we start to see prices and lead times move higher in the weeks ahead. The modest declines in HR this week are probably the result of lingering deals cut at “old” prices, as sometimes happens after mill price increases. But those deals will probably be out of the market soon if they aren’t already. So why do I float the idea of higher prices? Some big buys have been placed. It reminds me a little of what we saw last fall, when people restocked in anticipation of higher prices once the UAW strike was resolved.
Sheet and plate prices mostly moved lower this week after little change was noted the week prior. Despite edging down, sentiment is mixed, and many suggest a bottom may be near.
U.S. Steel expects higher earnings in the first quarter of this year vs. the previous quarter.
Are we still looking for a bottom on sheet prices? In what direction are steel and scrap prices headed? How’s demand holding up at the moment?
Happy St. Patrick’s Day. “To govern is to choose.” Those words, reportedly first uttered by the late French Premier Pierre Mendes-France in the 1950s, resonate vividly in our time. It means that choices have consequences and that priorities must be set based on goals. Interested parties, in and out of government, raise their voices in […]
Rig counts in the US and Canada were mixed this week, according to the latest data from Baker Hughes.
The CRUspi fell by 8.3% month over month (m/m) in March to 206.6 as weaker-than-expected demand weighed on markets around the world. Price falls were notable across all regions, with elevated inventory levels pushing prices in the US and Europe, and disappointing stimulus measures from the Chinese government weighing on those in Asia.
Steel Market Update’s Steel Demand Index recovered out of contraction territory on the heels of the pricing blitz from mills last week, according to our latest survey data.
According to the latest “Index of Net New Orders of Aluminum Mill Products” released by the US Aluminum Association (AA), total orders in February 2024 were up 9.3% compared to February 2023. This is a noticeable improvement from the growth of 2.1% year over year (y/y) seen in January.
Nucor said on Thursday afternoon it expects higher profits in the first quarter vs. the previous quarter but lower than a year earlier.
Steel mill lead times were flat to slightly up, according to our market survey this week.
Sheet and plate prices were mostly flat this week – largely in response to the mill price blitz from last week – pausing the downtrend they’d been on for the better part of 2024.
US steel exports jumped to 770,649 short tons (st) in January, rising 25% from the 12-month low recorded one month prior.
Reaction to the price announcements last week by domestic mills varied just a little depending on who you were speaking to. I heard rumblings before the announcements that a price hike of $100 per short ton (st) was coming. After the announcements were made, I had some questions as to whether they were increases at all.
The LME three-month price continued to strengthen through Friday, March 8, defending its position close to its five-week high and rising further to $2,262 per metric ton (mt), up 0.3%, on the day. Gains were also noted over the last week in other industrial metals, including copper, zinc, and lead. The price gains appeared to be due to weakness in the US dollar, which fell sharply against a basket of currencies after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that rate cuts were still expected this year.
A weak start for sheet demand this year has continued to weigh on global prices. European demand outside of the renewable energy sector was weak enough that market participants said mills are likely to cut output further after several furnace restarts earlier in the year. In China, demand has also failed to pick up after recent holidays, and even government announcements of more stimulus measures during the country’s “Two Sessions” meetings failed to boost market confidence.
Jemison Metals has announced a definitive agreement to buy Advanced Metal Components Inc. The Birmingham, Ala.-headquartered supplier of flat-rolled products said the transaction is scheduled to be completed on or before March 29. Further terms of the deal were not disclosed.
US and Canadian rig counts both eased this week, according to the latest release from Baker Hughes on Mar. 8. Recall that US rigs had reached a 5-month high last week.
ArcelorMittal is targeting a minimum base price for hot-rolled (HR) coil of $825 per ton. The Luxembourg-based steelmaker said the new floor price was effective immediately in a letter to its commercial team dated Friday, March 8.
US steel mill shipments increased in January vs. December but fell from a year earlier,
A Detroit-area mill entered the scrap market on Thursday offering down $70 per gross ton (gt) on #1 busheling. And Nucor announced a minimum base price of $825 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil. What's the best way to interpret would could be read as contradictory trends?
Flat-rolled steel prices have been running downhill in a hurry since the beginning of the year. In some ways, it's no surprise because other indicators have also been pointing lower for some time. Lead times have been contracting since the beginning of the year and are now below the five-week mark for hot-rolled (HR) coil for the first time since September. Mills are more willing to negotiate lower prices, and early reports seem to indicate that scrap might settle lower again in March.
Sheet and plate prices this week continued the downward trend they’ve been on for most of 2024. Some market sources predicted that a wave of spring maintenance outages would help to stabilize lead times and prices in the weeks ahead – especially should service center inventories, high at the beginning of the year, come down meaningfully.
Steel prices continued to ease lower throughout February, following a loss of upwards momentum in the middle of January.
A clear consensus has emerged among respondents to SMU’s latest steel market survey that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices will bottom this month or in April. Seventy-five percent of respondents to our latest survey think that prices will find a floor before May as the chart below shows:
The failure of the trade remedy actions against imported steel tin mill products (TMPs) continues to resonate. Cleveland-Cliffs and the United Steel Workers Union (USW) lost the case at the International Trade Commission (ITC) last month. A few days ago, the ITC released its final report explaining the decision against imposing antidumping and countervailing duties […]
IAI reports aluminum industry greenhouse gas emissions declined in 2022.
The number of active rigs in the US inched up to the highest level seen since September, according to the latest data from Baker Hughes.
Steel mill lead times shrunk by an average of 0.3 weeks, according to our latest market survey, now nearing levels last seen in September of last year.