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    Analysis

    Final thoughts

    Written by David Schollaert


    It’s no surprise why spot prices are on the rise: Mills have been announcing higher flat-rolled tags for the better part of the past three months, according to our steel mill price increase calendar.

    A leading cause of the $305-per-ton rally since prices reached a recent bottom of $645 per ton in late September has been a combination of extending lead times (helped by maintenance outages and idlings) and limited spot availability. That dynamic has squeezed the spot market even more with limited tonnages available for December.

    David Schollaert

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    Brazilian pig iron trade with US stuck in doldrums

    The pig iron trade from Brazil into the US has been lackluster over the last month with minimal activity. Many players in the trade thought activity would increase after the International Iron Metallics Assn (IIMA) meeting in Chicago earlier this month, but it has not materialized so far. Part of the reason could be the US scrap buy for October stretched out longer than usual, as buyers and sellers haggled over price. Now that prices settled upward, there may be different ideas on where pig iron prices should settle.

    SMU Survey: Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index up, Future Sentiment flat

    SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index ticked up this week, while Future Sentiment remained flat again, according to our latest market survey.  Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    Fed Beige Book finds stronger steel, machinery demand but rising cost pressure

    Manufacturing activity improved in several Federal Reserve districts, but conditions remained mixed nationwide, according to the Fed’s Oct. 14 Beige Book report. Demand was strongest in steel, machinery, defense-related products, and data center infrastructure. Steel producers in the Cleveland District reported firm spot market demand. Data center, power-generation, defense, and aerospace projects supported orders. Long mill lead times kept customer inventories lean and prices high. Producers also reported higher orders from truck-trailer and light-vehicle manufacturers. International demand for hydrogen vehicle parts increased.

    Final Thoughts: Sheet prices and lead times are climbing, so are inventories and imports

    On the face of it, nothing much changed in the US steel market this week. Lead times continue to extend. Inventories remain lean. And mills can pretty much name their price. Sheet lead times, which extend well into December, remain at the highest levels we’ve seen since 2021. Plate lead times, meanwhile, set a new record. At 11 weeks on average, they’re higher than anything we’ve recorded – including during the boom year of ’21.