CRU: The 2024 US elections - What it means for policy

The US presidential elections will take place on Nov. 5, 2024. After lagging behind Biden throughout most of this year, polls in key swing states are now very close, and a Trump victory is now seen as an equally likely possibility by betting markets (Figure 1). In this Insight, we evaluate potential impacts of the US elections on key parts of the economy. Overall, although some policies might be rolled back or adjusted if a Republican was to replace Biden, 180-degree turns are unlikely in most areas. A White House that promotes either free trade or fiscal conservatism is very unlikely to emerge from these elections.

The single most important policy change under a Trump presidency might be the lack of predictability. Under Biden, the direction of US policy is relatively clear – use the US’s economic and political sway to try and contain Chinese power, while using subsidies, trade restrictions and regulation at home to decarbonize the economy and boost the industrial base. Having not participated in the debates and having given little indication of concrete policy proposals, it is highly unclear what direction a Trump White House would take on many issues.