SMU survey: Steel mill lead times near 5-month low

In our latest check of the market, buyers said lead times for hot-rolled sheet are now between 3 and 6 weeks, with an average of just under 5 weeks. This is down 0.2 weeks from the middle of the month and down 1.3 weeks since the start of the year. The last time we saw hot rolled lead times under 5 weeks was in September 2023.

Buyers of cold-rolled sheet reported a lead-time range of 5 to 10 weeks, with an average of 7.4 weeks. Cold-rolled lead times had slightly ticked up in mid-February, but have overall trended downward since peaking at 9 weeks in December.

Galvanized sheet lead times were reported to be between 5 and 10 weeks. This week’s average of 7.40 weeks is unchanged from our previous market check. Galvanized lead times are 0.5 weeks shorter than they were in the beginning of the year. Compared to the December high, lead times are today nearly 2 weeks shorter.

Buyers reported Galvalume lead times ranging from 6 to 9 weeks, averaging 7.00 weeks. This is down 0.4 weeks compared to mid-February. Galvalume lead times have declined by 5 weeks since peaking in November.

After holding steady for most of 2024, lead times for plate have eased to 5.4 weeks. Steel buyers reported lead times between 4 and 7 weeks. This is the shortest plate lead time recorded since October of last year.

3MMA lead times

Looking at lead times on a three-month moving average (3MMA) can smooth out the variability in the biweekly readings. As a 3MMA, lead times for all products eased from levels two weeks prior and have been contracting since mid-January.

The 3MMA for both hot rolled and cold rolled declined 0.2 weeks from mid-February, now at 6.0 and 8.0 weeks, respectively. Galvanized eased slightly to 8.1 weeks, while Galvalume shrunk 0.4 weeks to 8.8 weeks. Plate’s 3MMA lead time held steady at 6.0 weeks, having been relatively flat since December.

SMU’s survey results

This week, 63% of buyers in the survey said they think lead times will be flat two months from now, up from 56% two weeks prior. Meanwhile, 20% anticipate lead times will be longer two months from now (up from 12% in mid-February), while those expecting a contraction in lead times fell from 31% to 17%.

Here’s what a few of our survey respondents had to say about lead times:

“I believe they will remain stable as long as demand does not increase, which I don’t think will happen in two months.”

“Flat to contracting, which is of course part of the problem. Domestic mills really aren’t that busy and seasonal/maintenance shutdowns can’t get here fast enough.”

“Steady bookings leading in to summer doldrums.”

“After the initial move back up, lead times will stabilize.”

SMU will next update lead times on Thursday, Mar. 14.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. To see an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data, visit our website. If you’d like to participate in our survey, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.