By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison On Oct. 30, the Fed cut rates by 25bp as was widely anticipated (including by us), lowering the Federal Funds rate to a range of 1.50 percent-1.75 percent. Based on the Fed statement and comments during Chair Powell’s press conference, the Fed seems pleased with where monetary policy is, […]
The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in October with a reading of 48.3, the third month of contraction, indicating continued softening in the manufacturing sector. The October reading was an increase of 0.5 percentage points from September. Nine of the ten components of the index registered below the neutral point of […]
China’s steel production continues to grow as the rest of the world contracts. Figure 1 shows annualized monthly global steel production on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis and capacity utilization since January 2000. The OECD has taken over responsibility for tracking global steel capacity. Their data shows that global capacity declined each year 2016 […]
Manufacturing in the Midwest was weaker in August as slowing global trade continued to impact the region. The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 43.2 in October from 47.1 in September, further sinking into contraction and posting its lowest reading since December 2015. The three-month average fell to 46.9. New orders were at their lowest level […]
The international debate over the world’s oversupply of steel will go on, but without China’s participation in the G20’s Global Forum on Excess Steel Capacity. Ministers meeting in Tokyo over the weekend declined to extend the mandate for the forum, which is scheduled to lapse in December, primarily due to opposition from China. Other nations […]
Finding skilled workers is the top concern among respondents to The Fabricator’s 2019 “What Keeps You Up at Night?” survey. Published by the Fabricators & Manufacturers Association, the survey asked fabrication company executives to rank their concerns from a list that included availability of credit, availability of skilled workers, consolidation of competition and customers, cost […]
By CRU Economic Analyst Ippolito Tarabini and Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen World industrial production growth halved in 2019H1 to 1.5 percent from 3 percent in 2018, suffering because of a slowdown in China, the widespread downturn in the automotive sector, and the unpredictable trade negotiations between the U.S. and the rest of the world, particularly […]
Durable goods orders fell by the greatest amount since May, dropping 1.1 percent in September, significantly more than analysts’ estimates of a 0.8 percent decline. Core capital goods, non-defense minus aircraft and a proxy for business investment, fell 0.5 percent. The latest Census Bureau report indicates further weakness in the manufacturing sector. Continued uncertainty regarding […]
The U.S. dollar has strengthened against 12 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last three months and against eight in the last month. In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow […]
The International Monetary Fund updates its World Economic Outlook in April and October each year. The IMF has increased its forecast of U.S. GDP growth in 2020, but decreased it in each year 2021 through 2023 with no change in 2024. The opening statement of the IMF’s WEO, released Oct. 15, begins as follows: “The […]
In the third quarter of 2019, the states reported a slowdown in net job creation that paralleled the national statistics. Third-quarter regional employment data by state was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. The state data follows and confirms the employment situation that we reported at the national level two weeks […]
Based on Steel Market Update’s analysis of 10 indicators, U.S. manufacturing output is now contracting and articles manufactured from iron and steel are down by 6.1 percent year over year. This report summarizes 10 data streams that describe the state of U.S. manufacturing in general and the steel industry in particular. In data released in […]
Economic activity expanded at a slight to moderate pace across most of the U.S. in September and early October. Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts in the South and West were generally more upbeat than the Midwest and Great Plains, according to the Fed’s latest Beige Book. Manufacturing activity edged lower as firms cited persistent […]
The World Steel Association is relatively bullish on steel demand in its October Short Range Outlook despite global economic challenges. Global steel demand will grow by 3.9 percent to 1,775.0 million metric tons in 2019 and will grow by another 1.7 percent in 2020, reaching 1,805.7 million metric tons. Steel demand in China is expected […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The U.S. economy is in the midst of its longest economic expansion on record—124 months and counting. The recent deceleration in U.S. growth momentum and the fading health of the global economy call into question whether the expansion can continue, and for how long. In this article, we discuss […]
Demand for sheet products spiked to over five million tons in August for the first time since August last year, though flat rolled demand remains tepid. Construction expenditures are softening and will reduce the demand for long products through the balance of 2019. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment […]
Business activity in New York State grew slightly in October but was generally sluggish. The October 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Index gained two points to register 4.0. The new orders index was unchanged at 3.5, indicating a slight Improvement. Shipments rose 7 points to 13.0 after falling to a three-year low last month. Unfilled […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share the following Premium content with Executive members. For information on upgrading to a Premium-level membership, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. When is the U.S. economy likely to see its next recession? Not anytime soon, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of leading economic indicators, which all appear fairly healthy. Steel demand […]
U.S. steel mills shipped 8,472,088 net tons for the month of August, a 4.4 percent increase from the 8,115,103 net tons shipped in the previous month, July 2019, and a 0.4 percent increase from the 8,441,597 net tons shipped in August 2018, reported the American Iron and Steel Institute in Washington. Shipments year-to-date totaled 64,810,436 […]
Job creation in September continued at a lackluster pace and the details signal a slowdown in steel consumption. In September, 7,000 jobs were created in construction, while manufacturing industries lost 2,000 jobs. About 114,000 jobs were created in the private sector, while government gained 22,000 positions. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and […]
Census Bureau data confirms a slowdown in steel product shipments and new orders in 2019. Steel industry trade association data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) are most widely used to assess the state of the industry. In addition, the Census Bureau provides monthly data on […]
The rate of job creation in September slowed to 136,000, but the details of job cuts and job openings continue to be historically very positive, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Net job creation in September declined to 136,000 from an upwardly revised 168,000 in […]
The American Institute of Architect’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) posted a score of 47.2 for August indicating a decline in planning activity for nonresidential construction. The national score for new design contracts was also below the neutral point of 50 at 47.9, a rare occurrence for the two scores. Having both indexes in contraction means […]
Primetals Technologies, a leading engineering, plant building and lifecycle services partner for the metals industry, will be solely owned by Mitsubishi-Hitachi Metals Machinery by early next year. MHMM and Siemens AG, joint owners of Primetals, have agreed that MHMM will acquire Siemens’ 49 percent stake in the company for an undisclosed sum. Closing of the […]
September saw big downturns on both steel price momentum and steel buyers sentiment that aren’t readily evident in the monthly data (below) from Steel Market Update. SMU’s Price Momentum Index was pointing downward for the entire month of September. The benchmark price for hot rolled steel averaged $565 per ton for the month, down nearly […]
The September Manufacturing ISM Report on Business showed further decline of the manufacturing sector. ISM’s PMI edged down 1.3 points to 47.8 from the August reading of 49.1. “This is the lowest reading since June 2009, the last month of the Great Recession, when the index registered 46.3 percent,” said Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of […]
The global manufacturing sector remains in contraction but is beginning to stabilize, says the latest report from J.P. Morgan and IHS Markit. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose for a second month in a row reaching 49.7, although still below the 50 neutral point. “The global manufacturing PMI sent a message of stability in […]
Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board declined more than expected in September. Month on month, the composite value of the index declined from 134.2 to 125.1. Calculated as a three-month moving average (3MMA) to smooth the monthly volatility, the measure of consumer confidence actually increased slightly from 131.4 to 131.7. This is why […]
Both the September and October reports on consumer confidence from The Conference Board suggest a weakening of people’s expectations. Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board declined more than expected in September and experienced another small decline in October. This is quite a volatile indicator and therefore we smooth the data with a […]
The third estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019 at 2.01 percent was little changed from the first estimate. U.S. GDP is reported quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). There are three estimates. The first is released about 25 days after the end of the quarter and the second and third are […]