Manufacturing growth remained steady in June, according to the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The composite index was unchanged from May at 52.6. The PMI average for second quarter fell slightly below first quarter. The Eurozone drove growth in June, accelerating the PMI for the region to its highest level in more than six years. […]
We ended the month of June with a change in our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral (we had moved from lower to Neutral earlier in the month) to Higher. With the expectation of Section 232 being implemented by President Trump, we feel prices have only one way to go, up. How long that will last […]
The Chicago Business Barometer took a giant leap in June, expanding from 59.4 in May to 65.7. The Barometer, which is designed to predict future changes in gross domestic product, was at its highest level since 2014. The average score for second quarter was 61.1, significantly stronger than the average of 55.1 in Q1. The […]
Metalforming companies are not expecting much change in business conditions in the next three months. The latest Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report indicates that only 34 percent of survey participants predict an improvement in general economic activity, while 58 percent predict no change. Orders are expected to be steady or slightly better in […]
The American Institute of Architects reports that May indices for new project inquiries and contracts reached their highest level so far in 2017. The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) climbed 2.1 points to a score of 53.0. New project inquires increased 2.2 points for a reading of 62.4 and the new design contracts index reached 54.8 […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The analysis of currency trends is a highly technical undertaking; therefore we at SMU rely on the opinions of experts for much of our commentary. As expected, the Fed raised its policy rate range by 25 basis points on June 14. This […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator and for the official news release. The composite value of consumer confidence was 118.9 in June, an increase of 1.3 points from the May value. The last […]
Two Federal Reserve manufacturing indices came out this week showing a contrast between business conditions in the Richmond and Texas regions. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Manufacturing in the Fifth District improved in June with more manufacturing executives expressing optimism for the next six months. The composite index rose six points to register 7 on […]
Durable goods orders, products designed to last three or more years, slipped for a second month, falling 1.1 percent in May, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. Core capital goods orders, a category that tracks business investment, declined for the first time this year, inching down 0.2 percent. Airline orders drove the decline with commercial […]
We are continuing our investigation to quantify the players in the global trade of both HRC and CRC. We now have data for the first quarter of this year. This information is sourced quarterly from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau in the UK. It takes about 10 weeks after the close of a quarter […]
This is only the third time we have produced a report on global scrap trade. In the future, we will report quarterly because to understand the gyrations of the domestic scrap market we should be aware of where the U.S. stands as a global player. This data is not very current as some nations are […]
This afternoon there was a press conference in Washington hosted by the American Institute for International Steel. Many of the large press organizations attended the conference, and even though we were unable to personally attend, we did receive notes about the content and especially the questions that interested the press corps. There appears to be […]
Two new Federal Reserve manufacturing reports came out on Thursday, one rebounding and one slowing. Manufacturing activity shot up in New York State, while activity in the Philadelphia region continued to expand, but at a slower pace. Empire State Manufacturing Survey The general business conditions index leaped 21 points to 19.8, its highest level in […]
We start this report with comments made by Jun Wei Yeo on iron ore and coking coal. “In April to May alone, there was an over 30 percent drop in the price of iron ore. Iron ore mining companies such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, and Brazil’s Vale are suffering simultaneous stock price declines. Most […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through April 2017 and year-on-year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments with total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side-by-side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and […]
The Dodge Momentum Index gained 4 percent in May posting a score of 139.1 after slipping to a revised 133.7 in April. Commercial projects in planning increased 4.8 percent while institutional project planning was up 2.9 percent, recovering partially from April’s 12.0 percent decline. Despite signs of weakening occupancies and rents, the commercial component of […]
President Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris climate agreement was met mostly with silence from the steel industry. Cliffs Natural Resource CEO Lourenco Goncalves was among the few to publicly voice his support for abandoning the environmental agreement signed by 194 other nations. “Cliffs applauds President Trump for his decision to withdraw from the […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report for May was released on Friday and revealed a disappointing total net job creation of 138,000 which was well below analysts expectations. To make matters worse, March and April were revised down by a total of 66,000 jobs. Using a three month moving average (3MMA), the result […]
Global manufacturing was at a six month low in May according the latest JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The composite index inched down to 52.6 from 52.7 in April. Developed nations showed solid steady expansion in manufacturing while growth in emerging nations was nearly flat. The PMI for the U.S. was at an 8 month […]
Manufacturing activity expanded in May according to the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The PMI rose 0.1 percent from April to a reading of 54.9 percent. The new orders index rose 2 points to 59.5 percent while the production index declined 1.5 points to 57.1. Inventories were relatively stable in May. The inventory index rose […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator and for the official news release. Consumer Confidence decreased 1.5 points in May, falling to 117.9 but the last four months have each been better than at […]
The Chicago Business Barometer hits its highest level since January, increasing from 58.3 in April to a reading of 59.5 in May. New orders fell 4.5 points to 61.4 but production gained 3.7 points for an index reading of 62.3. Order backlogs pulled from contraction after five months of decline. Delivery times for inputs lengthened […]
This report summarized seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the US. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications therefore will be brief in this summary. We don’t expect these data sources to all point in the same direction but our intention in summarizing them […]
The month of May saw flat rolled steel prices and our SMU Price Momentum Indicator take a turn and move lower. Benchmark hot rolled pricing was $625 during the first week of May and ended the month at $580 per ton. The HRC average for the month was $603 per ton, $6 per ton lower […]
Peter Brebach, CEO of Iron Angels of Colorado, one of the founding members of the American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) and a friend of Steel Market Update where he was a contributing writer and co-founder of SMU Steel 101 workshop, has passed away. The American Institute for International Steel sent out the following press […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) spend the majority of today discussing the flat rolled steel markets with steel buyers from around the country. The main topic of conversation was pricing, which is anticipated will drop over the next 30 days and Section 232 which is expected to end that drop… Flat rolled steel buyers reported most […]
Texas legislators have approved a “Buy American” bill that will require large state projects to purchase domestic iron and steel. Senate Bill 1289 requires use of American steel if the cost doesn’t exceed 20 percent of foreign price offerings. Foreign steel may also be used if American suppliers cannot provide the necessary material or if […]
Metalformers are expecting a downturn in business conditions during the next three months according the May 2017 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. The PMA report is an economic indicator for manufacturing, sampling 117 metalforming companies in the United States and Canada. Participants were less optimistic about improvement in general economic activity during the […]
Orders of manufactured durable goods orders decreased 0.7 percent in April, according to the Department Commerce. “The shipment of capital good non-defense ex-aircrafts came in at -0.1% MoM vs. +0.5% consensus and March was revised down to +0.2% from +0.5% prior — this doesn’t bode particularly well for second-quarter GDP,” noted BMO Capital Markets. The […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. On May 22 Arun Chopra of Fusion Point Capital wrote: “The dollar has been on a 2 year plus uptrend. When the dollar broke out we saw oil and all commodities collapse. An important long term trend line has broken, having implications […]