The Precision Metalforming Association reports members are expecting strong business conditions through the first quarter of 2017. The Business Conditions Report for January sampled 115 metalforming companies in the U.S. and Canada. The report showed 48 percent of participants expect business activity to improve in the next three months, compared to 43 percent in December’s […]
Today is the last day in the month of January 2017. The following is our monthly review of key data collected by Steel Market Update during the month including a number of our own proprietary indices and indicators. SMU Price Momentum is ending the month pointing toward higher prices ahead. We do admit that there […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. The January report indicated a small decline from December but the three month moving average (3MMA) was the strongest since August 2001. Consumer confidence is the driver […]
The Chicago Business Barometer lost 3.6 points in January, registering 50.3 from a revised 53.9 in December. The Barometer was at its lowest level since May 2016, after a strong fourth quarter averaging 54.3, said MNI Indicators. New orders fell by 7.8 points dipping into contraction and dragging down the composite index. Production fell 2.3 […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated January 20th (Figure 1). The dollar had a recent peak of 128.9627 on January 3rd which was the […]
The headline report of GDP growth in Q4 came in at 1.88 percent a decline from 3.53 percent in the third quarter. GDP is measured and reported in chained 2009 dollars and in the first estimate of Q4 was $16.805 trillion. The growth calculation is misleading because it takes the quarter over quarter change and […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds, then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are close. In the last sixteen quarters since Q1 2013, the Feds reported total job creation of 10,239,000 and the states reported 10,103,000 a difference of only 0.13 percent. Part of this small […]
Durable goods orders had an unexpected drop in December, falling 0.4 percent from November. Economists at Wall Street Journal had anticipated a 2.3 percent increase in overall orders. Defense related goods drove most of the decline with a 64 percent decrease in orders for defense aircraft. Orders minus transportation increased 0.5 percent. Core goods, nondefense […]
Manufacturers in the Fifth and Tenth Districts were optimistic about future manufacturing growth during the next six months. The Tenth District, under the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, was especially optimistic on future growth. Richmond Fed The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond reported manufacturing activity strengthened in the Fifth District during January. The composite […]
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) ended 2016 at a score of 55.9, up from 50.6 in November and growing for the third consecutive month, according to the latest report by the American Institute of Architects. The new projects inquiry index stood at 57.2 in December from 59.5 the previous month. The differing growth pace between […]
Manufacturing activity continued to improve in the Philadelphia area during January and is expected to continue to do so for the next six months, according to the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The index for current manufacturing index rose from 19.7 in December to 23.6 in January for […]
Wilbur Ross, Trump nominee for Commerce Secretary, talked tariffs on China during Wednesday’s confirmation hearings. The billionaire investor, who was instrumental in turning around ailing steel mills such as LTV Steel in 2002, appears to be a solid supporter of President-elect Trump’s strong-arm approach to trade. “One of the things that we do need very […]
The January Empire State Manufacturing Survey in January declined -1.1 from December to 6.5. The general business index reading was positive for the third consecutive month indicating that business activity continues to expand in New York State. New orders and shipments remained positive but fell by 7.3 and 1.3 points, respectively. Unfilled orders posted a […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics employment reports, both national and regional, are fundamental to our understanding of where the various steel consuming sectors are headed. In this analysis we are examining multiple data sources to try to develop a broad base of understanding. This data complements other more specific information on construction and manufacturing activities […]
Global manufacturing reached a three year high in December, finishing out the year with the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI at 52.7, up from 52.1 in November. After a flat first half, the second half of 2016 showed steady growth in the manufacturing sector. The December survey by IHS Markit indicates global manufacturing is growing at […]
Precision Metalforming Association members are looking forward to a spike in economic activity in the first quarter of 2017. The December 2016 survey of 115 metalforming companies in the U.S. and Canada shows 43 percent are expecting improved activity in the next three months, up from 21 percent in November. New orders are expected to […]
The last month of the year was a strong one based on the data we just reviewed and have shared with you in the table at the end of this article. SMU Price Momentum Index finished both the month and the year pointing toward higher prices in the coming 30 to 60 days. Our Sentiment […]
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in December according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. Growth in the overall economy expanded for the 91st consecutive month, said ISM. The PMI for December reached 54.7, climbing 1.5 percentage points from November. The new orders index jumped 7.2 points to 60.2 from November and […]
The Chicago Business Barometer fell 3 points in December to register 54.6. The Barometer has averaged 54.3 during fourth quarter, the highest in two years, and suggests that economic conditions have improved somewhat, said MNI Indicators. The index for New Orders lost 6.7 points giving up the gains it made in November that pushed the […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated December 16th, Figure 1. The dollar as of that date was stronger than at any time since April […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. The official news release from the Conference Board is included beneath our analysis. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. The December report was very encouraging and came on the heels of an excellent […]
For the first time this month we will summarize six data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the US. We have reported on most of these six sources separately in our Steel Market Update publications therefore will be brief in this summary. We don’t expect these data sources to all point in the […]
Manufacturing surveys by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Richmond indicated that manufacturers are expecting positive business conditions in the first half of 2017. Activity is expected to be stronger in the Fifth District area than Texas but both regions see improvement conditions in the New Year. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Manufacturing activity […]
China GDP is expected to slow to 6.5 percent next year and decline to 6.4 percent by third and fourth quarters. A report released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said economic expansion is likely to dip next year due to declines in export demand, investment growth and domestic demand. The Dec. 19 […]
This article should go into one of our Steel Buyers Basics series of articles under the heading “Buyer Beware” or, “If it is too Good to be True….” The following article is from one of our trading contacts with whom our SMU Publisher had done business during his trading career. The trader is located in […]
This is our first ever write up of global scrap trade. We believe that to understand the gyrations of the domestic scrap market we should study where the US stands as a global player. This data is not very current because some nations are slow to report but we still believe it gives a valuable […]
Durable goods orders decreased 4.6 percent in November to $228.2 billion, according to the latest report from the Department of Commerce. The drop follows four months of consecutive increases. Durable goods are products designed to have a lifespan of longer than three years, such as machinery and computers. The decline in November was driven by […]
Steel buyers and executives associated with the service center industry are reporting to Steel Market Update that end users are accepting that we are in a higher priced flat rolled steel environment and most have placed their first quarter 2017 tons. The expectation is for the market to “pause” here due to the holidays which […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for December indicated modest business growth for December and strong optimism for next year. The headline general business index rose 8 points while new orders picked up 11.4 points. The shipments index was unchanged for the month. Manufacturers in New York State reported declines in employment and hours worked. Inventories […]
Manufacturers in the Philadelphia area were optimistic in December about general business activity, shipments, and employment. The index reading for current manufacturing activity increased from an index reading of 7.6 in November to 21.5 this month, according to the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook survey by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. The reading for December was the […]