The Chicago Business Barometer plunged 10 points to 52.6 in July, falling at the quickest rate since October 2008 and to the lowest level since June 2013. The fall surprised Bloomberg economists who were expecting the Index to rise slightly to 63 from a reading of 62.6 in June. The decline was attributed to a […]
On Wednesday this week the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the advance estimate of Q2 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts. In addition to the regular revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and for the first quarter of 2014, GDP and select components were revised back to […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 4.5 in June to 90.9. The view of the present situation rose by 2.0 to 88.3 as expectations rose by 6.3 to 92.7, these two components have now converged as they always do at this stage of a recovery after which the view of the present situation will take […]
Home prices grew moderately in May according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. On a year-over-year basis the 10-City Composite gained 9.4 percent and the 20-City gained 9.3 percent, down from the previous y/y gains reported last month of 10.9 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted gains of 1.1 […]
Durable goods orders increased 0.7 percent after dropping 1.0 percent in May, according to data released by the US. Census Bureau. New orders, excluding transportation, increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Machinery led the advance in June with a 2.4 percent increase in new orders. “Durable goods orders climbed 0.7% in […]
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) was released on Wednesday morning showing an overall improvement in construction industry. The ABI score for June was 53.5, up from 52.6 in May. Note that the index is centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. “The […]
Statistical data out of China is always questioned for a number of reasons, not least is, “Is the data politically motivated.” Other suspicions arise because China gets their data out faster than any other major economy and the data is never revised. Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and […]
Metalforming companies are showing some uncertainty about the general economic outlook but more than half reported shipping levels were higher in July 2014 than in July 2013. The forecast for incoming orders in the next three months compared to the previous three is somewhat better–40 percent expecting orders to increase (up from 37 percent) and […]
Chinese steel trade data for June 2014 was released earlier this week, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in June were 74,570,000 metric tons, a decrease of 3.6 percent from the previous month but an increase of 19.7 percent from […]
A first glance suggests that the June housing starts report was depressing, total starts at 893,000 were down from 985,000 in May and 1,063,000 in April. However the three month moving average (3MMA) in June was 980,000 which was exactly the same as April. Not progress but not a calamity either. Even on a 3MMA […]
Explanation of data sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily and monthly basis. It is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading partners. The index weights, which change over time, are derived […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 103.92 for June, with a three month moving average (3MMA) of 103.6. This was the ninth consecutive month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The 3MMA has expanded for 20 straight […]
The July Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed improved business conditions for the third consecutive month with a reading of 25.6, up 6 points and at its highest level in over four years. In the survey of New York manufacturers, new orders held steady at 18.8 while the shipments index picked up nine points to register […]
The following article on the Asian scrap markets was written by Damon Sun one of Steel Market Update contributing writers and an active participant in the Asian ferrous scrap markets: From last week onwards, the Far East Asian scrap markets have been weakening on the containerized sales, but the bulk scrap sales have insisted and […]
The supply of all steel products in the 3 months March through May 2014 was up by 10.0 percent from the same period last year. Flat rolled was up by 11.6 percent and sheet products by 11.5 percent. The sources of this analysis are the Commerce Department trade statistics and AISI steel shipment data. The […]
The Dodge Momentum Index rose for the third consecutive month, gaining 3.3 percent in June to register 128.7, according to McGraw Hill Construction. The Index is a monthly measure of initial planning for nonresidential building projects. The report leads construction spending by a full year and can be used an indicator for future construction. Any […]
Steel buyers in the June Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Steel Buyers Survey held fast to the belief that the general trend of economic activity will remain the same for the next six months, unchanged from 66.7 percent. Incoming orders are expected to remain the same for 50 percent of steel buyers surveyed and increase […]
AISI Press Release – WASHINGTON, D.C. – The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and more than 40 other associations are urging the State Department to move ahead toward completion of the Keystone XL pipeline. In a letter to Secretary of State John Kerry, in whose jurisdiction the pipeline evaluation process lies, the groups state […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 288,000 jobs were added in June, May was revised up by 7,000 to 224,000 and April up by 22,000 to 304,000. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose to 272,000 after four consecutive months of growth beginning in February at 150,000, (Figure 1). […]
Building permit values jumped 13.8 percent in Canada in May, totaling $6.9 billion and exceeding expectations for the month. The increase was due to higher construction intentions for commercial buildings in Ontario and Manitoba as well as multi-family dwellings in British Columbia, said Statistics Canada. Residential permit values rose 9.5 percent to $4.1 billion. Building […]
Chinese steel trade data for May 2014 was released late last week, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in May were 77,382,000 metric tons, a decrease of 7.2 percent from the previous month but an increase of 12.9 percent from […]
Steel price inputs were mixed during the month of June. Shredded and heavy melt scrap prices declined $8 and $4 per ton respectively while busheling scrap prices increased by $3 per ton. Iron Ore prices increased for 62% Fe grades but decreased for 58% Fe. Zinc and Aluminum prices showed a slight increase of $0.0437 […]
Hot rolled prices eroded during the month of June with the month ending at $660 per ton ($33.00/cwt) and our June monthly average $666 per ton. At the end of May our average was $680 per ton so we are down $14 per ton based on the monthly averages. The CRU hot rolled coil futures […]
We are including this article because it puts the Fed’s post-recession activities into perspective. Our recollection is that the European central bankers scoffed at the Federal Reserve quantitative easing and TARP programs when they were initiated in 2008. The European Central bank, (ECB) has taken the single currency block into uncharted waters by sending the […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their June report on July 1st. The June PMI registered 55.3 percent, down slightly from 55.4 percent in May. Any number > 50 indicates expansion and this was the thirteenth straight month for which this was the case. The three month moving average (3MMA) advanced for the third consecutive […]
Hot rolled prices eroded during the month of June with the month ending at $660 per ton ($33.00/cwt) and our June monthly average $666 per ton. At the end of May our average was $680 per ton so we are down $14 per ton based on the monthly averages. The CRU hot rolled coil futures […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their June report on July 1st. The June PMI registered 55.3 percent, down slightly from 55.4 percent in May. Any number > 50 indicates expansion and this was the thirteenth straight month for which this was the case. The three month moving average (3MMA) advanced for the third consecutive […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose moderately to 52.7 in June from 52.1 in May, an expansion of the manufacturing sector for the 19th month. Production increased at the fastest rate since February due to a flow of new orders. International trade volumes were subdued in June reported JP Morgan and Markit. The June […]
US auto sales slowed a bit in June but still made gains for most automakers. Sales exceeded analyst expectations totaling 1.4 million in June. WardsAuto’s currently estimates the seasonally adjusted annual rate for light vehicles in 2014 at 16.98 million, in line with industry forecasts of 17 million. Chrysler had the best showing of the […]
The Chicago Business Barometer slipped 2.9 points to 62.6 in June, but the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and MNI Indicators says the barometer continues to be high and “consistent with a bounceback in Q2 GDP.” The barometer gained momentum in Q2 to an average reading of 63.7, staying above 60 for three months in […]