Steel mill lead times have shortened to what is considered nearly normal by historical standards, with hot rolled lead times below four weeks and cold rolled and coated around six weeks, plus or minus. In other words, the time it takes the mills to make steel and process orders can’t get much shorter. But the […]
With steel prices continuing to plunge, buyers clearly hold the upper hand in price negotiations with the mills – a position they have enjoyed for the past two months as seen in the upward slope of the green bars in the chart below. Every two weeks, Steel Market Update asks readers: Are you finding the […]
Majestic Steel USA CEO Todd Leebow will be the featured speaker on Steel Market Update’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Feb. 9, at 11 a.m. ET (10 a.m. CT). We’ll discuss the big issues facing service centers in the face of unprecedented price volatility and technical change. Topics will include: How are service centers […]
Steel prices continue to fall very, very quickly. Where they’ll bottom and when remains unclear. I wrote in an in-print magazine article last month that I hesitated to put pen to paper for fear that any prices I wrote would be out of date by the time the article was on the page. My fear now […]
Steel buyers remain a surprisingly bullish bunch despite rapidly declining steel prices as well as worries about COVID and the broader economy, . Steel Market Update’s survey this week asked service center and manufacturing executives if they are optimistic or pessimistic about their prospects in the first half of 2022. About 64% considered themselves optimists versus […]
SMU continues to hear that domestic HR prices are moving lower, in particular for large orders. Are mills trying to keep lead times above three weeks, are we going back to a cost plus model on the EAF side, or is it something else entirely? This isn’t 2008-09 or even 2014-15. The music hasn’t stopped […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz We are hearing a lot about “managed trade” these days from economists, pundits and politicians. It’s time to step back and think about the pros and cons of that concept. First, we should define the term “managed trade.” Trade is usually conducted between private parties for their mutual gain. Governments […]
When I was a kid, watching the Olympics was a big feel-good event. The family would all gather round the TV eating popcorn and rooting for the Americans as they competed against the world’s best athletes for a medal and their photo on a Wheaties box. There was something pure and uplifting about the whole […]
The U.S. steel industry has suffered tremendously from unfairly traded goods over the years. Many of the current antidumping and countervailing duty cases stem from import surges around five years ago and are coming up for review soon to determine if they should be extended. “2022 is a critical year for sunset reviews (see chart […]
I don’t want to lead prices down, but I don’t think it’s any secret at this point that sheet prices are falling fast. “The prophecies have been borne out,” is how one mill executive put it. What does that look like in practical terms? Some mills are offering hot-rolled coil at about $1,200 per ton […]
For those of you who participate in our bi-weekly steel market analysis questionnaires, or if you are a Premium level member, the results from the last few weeks would suggest service centers are at a point where they will support new price increases by the domestic steel mills. We collect data from manufacturing companies and […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz The U.S. and the UK recently announced the start of talks to eliminate or at least reduce the impact of Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. Since 2018, the UK, first as part of the European Union and since the start of 2021 the UK alone, has been subject […]
Wiley partner Alan Price will be the featured speaker on Steel Market Update’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Jan. 26, at 11 a.m. ET (10 a.m. CT). We’ll discuss the big issues facing steel when it comes to trade policy – with a particular focus on Section 232 developments: Will there be a deal […]
How anxious is the steel market in the face of sharply declining steel prices? Based on Steel Market Update’s survey this week, anxiety levels are not as high as one might think. As more than one steel exec has commented recently, “Demand will be our saving grace.” SMU asked service center and manufacturing executives in […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has seen little change in the past two months despite declining steel prices and concerns about the economy and COVID heading into 2022. SMU surveys buyers every two weeks and asks how they view their chances of success in the near and longer term. SMU’s Current […]
I want to spend some time talking about the Steel Market Update website and the value that can be found there. Over the years we have tweaked and added new content to the site as we strive to provide more information to the industry and our readers. The SMU Website There are a number of […]
Steel mill lead times – a leading indicator of prices – continue to trend downward and are approaching what used to be considered “normal.” If lead times are nearing a point at which they may soon level off, what might that say about steel prices? Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week puts […]
The power position in price negotiations between steel mills and steel purchasers has seen a complete turnabout in the past seven months, transitioning from a nearly 100% seller’s market in July 2021 to a 100% buyer’s market today (see chart below). Every two weeks, Steel Market Update asks readers: Are you finding the domestic mills […]
The United States and the United Kingdom have officially started talks that could ease Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum from Great Britain. The discussions would also seek to end UK measures imposed against certain U.S. exports in retaliation for the 25% security tariffs on steel and 10% tariffs on aluminum, U.S. and UK […]
SMU’s latest prices are out, and hot-rolled coil is down by $55 per ton while galvanized prices are down a comparatively modest $25 per ton. That’s been the trend for a while now – that galvanized prices have been “stickier” than hot-rolled coil prices on the way down. I wrote last week in Final Thoughts […]
I was reading your Final Thoughts and appreciated most of your comments, but I have some major issues with the inaccuracy of this paragraph. “Accounting tricks like inventory write-downs can help narrow the gap between a service center’s cost for steel and what a customer is willing to pay for it. But some losses are inevitable, […]
Flat Rolled = 63.9 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 67.1 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled U.S. service center flat rolled inventories jumped in December, in line with seasonal trends. At the end of December, service centers carried 63.9 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, up from 57.1 in November, according to […]
Monthly Key Market Indicators continued their shift to a neutral position throughout December, according to the latest analysis by Steel Market Update. Positive indicators held for the first time in seven months, while negative indicators eased. Ongoing economic dynamics such as an underperforming job market, supply-chain bottlenecks, rising inflation and producer prices, as well as a […]
Selling secondary steel isn’t what it used to be in a market niche that seems to be getting smaller. The secondary market has always been about relationships and matching customers’ needs to the nonprime material that becomes available. And in the current environment, there’s even more wheeling and dealing, sources told me this week. “It’s a […]
Wiley partner Alan Price will be the featured speaker on Steel Market Update’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Jan. 26, at 11 a.m. ET (10 a.m. CT). We’ll discuss the big issues facing steel when it comes to trade policy – with a particular focus on Section 232 developments: Will there be a deal […]
The bubble is bursting. Not just any bubble. We’re talking the bubble that is ridiculously wide spreads between hot-rolled coil prices and base prices for cold rolled and coated products. Case in point: SMU’s hot-rolled coil price stands at $1,480 per ton, and our cold-rolled and galvanized base prices are at $1,880 per ton – […]
Wiley partner Alan Price will be the featured speaker on Steel Market Update’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Jan. 26, at 11 a.m. ET (10 a.m. CT). We’ll discuss the big issues facing steel when it comes to trade policy – with a particular focus on Section 232 developments: Will there be a deal […]
Flat-rolled steel prices continue to fall, but the market participants I spoke to today were taking the news in stride. SMU’s average hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,480 per ton ($74 per cwt), down $55 per ton from $1,535 per ton a week ago and down $475 per ton from a 2021 high – […]
SMU’s Community Chat webinar with Wolfe Research metals and mining managing director Timna Tanners last week was our second-best attended ever. With more than 800 registered attendees, Tanners topped her own previous record. Barry Zekelman, executive chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries, still holds the title. But not by quite as wide a margin. We […]
The big question entering 2022 is how fast, and how far, steel prices will decline. As Wolfe Research Managing Director Timna Tanners said during our Community Chat this week, “the trajectory for 2022 will depend on the pace of destocking, the new capacity ramping up and demand.” Steel Market Update’s latest survey data offers some […]