I’ve noticed an increased focus on international issues reflecting moral and political subjects as opposed to economic ones, although these have been with us for a long time. Economists call this “virtue signaling.” The American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) published an article on the subject a few years ago, defining “virtue signaling” as “the […]
Steel buyers’ sentiment saw a slight dip in the past two weeks but remains near record highs, in line with record-high steel prices and profitability. Respondents’ comments suggest they are slightly less bullish about their future prospects than their current situation: “Our prospects in next three months? Excellent. In six months? Good. We all know […]
Steel buyers’ sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, remains extremely optimistic, and hasn’t seen a change of any real significance in the past three months. Current Sentiment has averaged a reading of +75 and Future Sentiment an average of +65, plus or minus a few points, since late April as the market enjoys the […]
Let’s talk about lead times. Because the results from our latest survey caught my attention. This is the first time in since January-February that you can maybe discern a potential peak in pricing – at least judging by that metric. Lead Times: Trend or Head Fake I’m going to display our lead latest lead time […]
The market is watching anxiously for a sign that rising lead times have finally turned and will begin to shorten as mill production catches up with demand. Indeed, Steel Market Update data shows a slight dip in the average lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel products this week. But the same has […]
As it turns out, the slight downturn seen in steel mill lead times last month was not the beginning of a trend change. Lead times for all products but plate have inched higher in the last two weeks, indicating no relief yet from the tight supplies that continue to push steel prices higher. According to […]
Encouraging the market to use better steel, and use steel better, along with being a leader in fossil-free steel production, is SSAB’s broader goal, said SSAB Americas President Charles Schmitt, during Wednesday’s SMU Community Chat webinar. SSAB Americas is the largest supplier of heavy steel plate in North America. Steel consumption has doubled since 2000, and […]
A Whimper or a Bang…? An interesting comment was made by one of the wholesalers on this morning’s HARDI galvanized steel conference call. I am paraphrasing here, but essentially the wholesaler was making the point that even when the mills catch up, the underlying demand is still there. From this executive’s perspective, as long as […]
First, Happy Father’s Day to all the fathers, grandfathers, and great-grandfathers out there. Peek-a-Boo… A one-hundred-ton order of hot rolled at $1,680 does not mean the sky is falling. One of our competitors is writing that prices are starting to decline. We conducted channel checks on Friday, and we did not find any evidence of […]
Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of monthly Key Market Indicators underscores that the recovery is still under way. Markers for both the Present Situation and Trends show small but positive moves from a month ago and now exceed pre-pandemic levels. SMU’s Key Market Indicators include a host of data on the economy, raw materials, manufacturing, construction, and […]
Flat rolled steel prices have been rising consistently for 45 straight weeks (since the week of Aug. 10, 2020). There is a chance (no guarantees) that we could see the cycle continue for a full 52+ weeks as the steel mills continue to have supply issues and demand remains quite strong in just about every […]
The U.S. and the EU have agreed to “resolve tensions” stemming from Section 232 by year end–but that doesn’t mean the national security tariffs will be lifted anytime soon, the head of the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) said. “I don’t see anything happening before the end of this year. This is a complicated […]
The White House has confirmed that the United States and the European Union are in discussions to resolve “existing differences” on Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum from the EU before the end of the year. “We are determined to work together to resolve tensions arising from the U.S. application of tariffs on imports […]
The Art of Forecasting… This week I saw another milestone drop that I never thought I would live to see. Galvanized base pricing out of a domestic mill at $100.00/cwt (seems like there is an extra digit there for some reason). I go back far enough to remember galvanized steel prices around $10.00/cwt…. For the […]
Flat Rolled = 45.3 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 45.2 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled U.S. service center flat rolled inventories grew significantly in May as mills caught up on deliveries and intake increased. At the end of May, service centers carried 45.3 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, up from […]
SMU’s Community Chat webinar with Bank of America metals and mining analyst Timna Tanners last week was our second-best attended ever. Barry Zekelman, executive chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries, still holds the title. But Tanners gave him a run for his money. We received more questions during the webinar than we were able to […]
SMU’s steel buyers’ sentiment index has hit its highest point ever – surpassing even the euphoria ahead of the unveiling of Section 232 tariffs and quotas in the first quarter of 2018. Stratospheric price gains, the potential for Section 232 to be removed from the EU by December, and a raft of new capacity coming online in North America […]
I asked a good friend of mine after he was appointed to as the deputy head of a cabinet department what a typical day was like for him. “It’s drinking water from a fire hose. Things come at you so fast you can’t get out of the way,” he said. As an observer and occasional […]
The government is exploring ways to resolve serious trade disputes with the EU. At the same time, it is attempting to preclude having to make refunds of potentially unlawful duties collected since 2018. As I mentioned in last week’s column, President Biden’s first foreign trip since he took office featured four summit meetings: the G7 […]
I thought it would be an interesting exercise to take a look at benchmark hot rolled pricing over the past 12 months. I thought I would compare the numbers on a month-over-month basis to give everyone an idea of how steep the price increases have been. At the same time, we can think about the […]
Flat rolled and plate steel mill lead times continue to extend, according to the results of this week’s flat rolled and plate steel analysis conducted by Steel Market Update. Hot rolled lead times have sustained 10 weeks or more for a month – the first time that has happened in the history of our records, […]
Steel buyers reported to Steel Market Update this week that the trend for steel mills to limit or totally remove any negotiations on spot steel prices continues. Steel pricing power is totally in the hands of the steel mills as supply continues to be less than the demand for mill products. Steel Market Update went […]
Steel prices will correct sharply as supply catches up with demand, potentially falling back to an average of $575 per ton ($28.75 per cwt) in 2022, according to one leading industry analyst. “This too will pass,” was the title chosen by Timna Tanners, metals and mining analyst at Bank of America, for her SMU Community […]
A deadline has been set by the European Union and the U.S. to end Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, and any retaliatory measures, by Dec. 1, according to a draft communiqué obtained by Reuters. An announcement of the agreement is expected at the G7 Summit next week in Brussels. “We commit to work towards […]
A 100-day review, authorized by President Biden, was released this week to address vulnerabilities in critical U.S. supply chains. The report, “Building Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing, and Fostering Broad-Based Growth,” was prepared by the departments of Commerce, Energy, Defense, and Health and Human Services. The 250-page report included recommendations not only for reducing […]
Infrastructure, Energy, Wind Farms, Tanners, Summit Conference, Imports. If you are watching the news, you are aware of the Biden administration’s push for a large (at least $1 trillion) infrastructure bill. There is a lot of discussion about what infrastructure entails in light of the current economy. It’s not your father’s economy. There is need […]
The U.S. Commerce Department has determined that coated flat-rolled steel made in Malaysia from Chinese or Taiwanese substrate circumvents U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties. As a result, coated product from Malaysia could be subject to duties of more than 200% if it is determined to be made from Chinese hot-rolled coil or cold-rolled coil, according […]
The U.S. International Trade Commission voted to continue antidumping orders on imports of cut-to-length carbon steel plate from China, Russia and Ukraine. Removing the orders, said the Commission in its sunset review, would “likely lead to continuation of recurrence of material injury within a reasonably foreseeable time.” The original investigation into CTL steel plate imports […]
I want to thank the National Association of Steel Pipe Distributors for giving me a chance to open their summer conference in Denver last week. I spoke about – what else, these days – steel prices. During the Q&A afterward and on the sidelines of the event, it was clear people were worried about (a) […]
Today, the domestic steel mills in Detroit began buying ferrous scrap for June up $60 per gross ton on prime grades (busheling and bundles) and up $50 per gross ton on cut grades and shred. It is anticipated the rest of the country will follow the Detroit lead. One of the questions we are constantly […]