As if a pandemic wasn’t enough, now I have to muddle through a tropical storm (it was a hurricane but lost some of its punch overnight on Saturday). Fortunately, Florida residents consider tropical storms as nothing more than a nuisance. I have my fingers crossed that we don’t pick up a hurricane until after our […]
I have been buried with the project of resurrecting our premiere event over the last few months. Out of the ashes of the pandemic rises the new virtual SMU Steel Summit Conference. As with any endeavor Steel Market Update tackles, this task has had some unusual challenges. As the project has gathered steam, we have found that […]
Watch the market closely. I am hearing rumors that at least one EAF mill is trying to get flat rolled numbers up. Right now, most (not all) data providers were not supportive of higher numbers. I am hearing integrated mills are not booking a lot of spot business, and thus are able to get slightly […]
The official opening of the SMU Virtual Steel Summit Conference is 29 days from today (Aug. 24-26). You will want to register early as we will be opening the platform during the prior week (probably Thursday and Friday) so people can get help as they practice using the platform, make appointments with other attendees and […]
NOTE: Steel Market Update will be moving to a new Azure server tomorrow. Most of the day our website will be down as we make the transition. The website should be back up on Saturday and we intend to publish on Sunday as usual, barring any technical difficulties. We are in an interesting time for […]
Steel prices are always unpredictable, but a confluence of recent events is making price prognostication more difficult than usual. Steel prices have plummeted along with demand ever since the coronavirus appeared in mid-March and undermined the economy. The benchmark base price for hot rolled steel is down to $460 per ton, based on SMU’s canvass […]
The coronavirus pandemic has crippled GDP growth and made the world economy smaller. It follows, then, that the same is in store for steel. “There is going to be a permanent reduction in the size of the steel market,” predicted veteran industry analyst John Lichtenstein, managing partner of the Swiss-based Research and Consulting Group AG […]
Today there was an explosion at the “D” furnace at ArcelorMittal Burns Harbor. Will there be some impact on the market? Will it be enough to put a bottom to the slide in prices? It’s too early to tell, but we will be watching developments closely in the coming days and weeks. Steel shipments between […]
We are seeing further erosion in flat rolled steel pricing this week with the possible exception of Galvalume. Our sources are advising that hot rolled numbers are being offered in the low $400’s for tons. As capacity reopens at integrated mills, the possibility exists for HRC prices to breach the $400 per ton level for […]
John Packard (who is traveling) says his sources are telling him that JSW’s flat roll mill in Mingo Junction, Ohio, may be shutting down (not taking orders) for an unknown amount of time. No confirmation or details yet from the company. John also reports that Steel Dynamics ran the first coil through the new #3 […]
John Packard is traveling… This was the plan when we got word there was a mysterious virus headed our way from China back in March: We shut down the economy for a month or two, keep our distance from each other, then get back to work and enjoy a quick, V-shaped recovery. Wasn’t quite that […]
We don’t get to choose when we were born. We don’t choose what natural disasters, epidemiological emergencies, stock market crashes, tyrannical regimes, or wars our generations face. We only get to choose how we react. (Professor Wendy Beth Hyman of Oberlin College to her students on March 11, 2020). Thank you for bearing with us […]
Today we officially took our SMU Price Momentum Indicator on hot rolled, cold rolled, and galvanized to Lower from Neutral. We are leaving Galvalume and plate at Neutral. We have seen prices slipping over the past few weeks, and we do not see any immediate signs of that trend reversing itself. There will be questions […]
This past week I unexpectantly lost someone I called a friend within the steel industry. I learned late last week that Keith Gunter, Vice President of Purchasing for McElroy Metals, lost his brief battle with cancer. He was 62 years old. Keith was one of the purchasing people I trusted to challenge me, and to […]
Reinventing Our Lives. As I have mentioned before, the COVID-19 pandemic is a health issue, not a political issue. Social distancing and the wearing of a mask are appropriate health decisions being made to protect those around you. Your protection comes from those around you also wearing a mask and being aware of how close […]
Why leave your employees in the dark? Last week we had one of our member companies upgrade to an Enterprise membership, and they added 429 of their employees to their account. Today, we had a steel mill ask to add another 100 people onto their existing account. From our inception, the goal of Steel Market […]
Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there. I hope you got to enjoy some quality time with your kids earlier today. There has been a call on the Commerce Department to review exports of steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico. There is a question if exports of these products have “surged” since […]
I know I speak on this subject a great deal because it is a challenge and an opportunity for the steel industry, and I love challenges. I am counting on you recognizing the opportunities…. When it comes to the SMU Steel Summit Conference there are two keys to our success: 1) quality content and 2) […]
My understanding from industry sources is that JSW Mingo Junction has returned their EAF and hot strip mill back to production this week. The mill was idled in April with JSW doing some work on the equipment. This will put some cheaper hot rolled coil into the market (one mill commercial officer telling me they […]
Every other week Steel Market Update conducts an analysis of the flat rolled and plate steel market trends. This is done via a comprehensive questionnaire, invitations for which are sent to more than 600 individuals representing more than 550 companies. We intentionally weight the invitations heavily to individuals from manufacturing and steel service centers. Combined […]
We had an exceptional SMU Community Chat on Wednesday with James Banker, Jr., of NLMK USA. Banker was candid, forthcoming (except when asked about steel pricing) and provided solid information for those who were on the webinar. The recording is available as are the PowerPoint slides used during the webinar. You can find both by […]
John Packard is working on another project. Steel prices have been on an upward trajectory, albeit a gradual one, since bottoming out in late April when the benchmark price of hot rolled hit a low of $460 per ton. The market plunged by $120 per ton in just six weeks from its mid-March high of […]
There is much to discuss, much to learn… As trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz lays out in his article/opinion piece this evening, there are no easy solutions to issues built over decades. International manufacturing companies need to review their supply chains to ensure they are not doing business in countries potentially hostile to the United States. […]
We had a good webinar with Lewis Leibowitz yesterday (Wednesday). Our next SMU Community Chat webinar will be held next Wednesday, June 10, and our featured guest speaker will be James Banker, Jr., Executive Vice President, NLMK USA. Banker will be the first steel mill to participate in one of our webinars. Jim has a […]
Ferrous scrap prices for Detroit came out late this afternoon. Prime grades (busheling and bundles) were up $10 per gross ton. There was no change to cut grades, and shredded scrap was down $10/GT. On Wednesday, June 3, we will host our 9th SMU Steel Community Chat webinar. We will be discussing trade with trade […]
Our SMU Community Chat attendees reacted to Wednesday’s webinar with Barry Zekelman of Zekelman Industries by flooding my office with emails. Readers of my editorial in Thursday’s issue of Steel Market Update also chose to provide their opinions on the subjects discussed. Emotions were running high as some thought I was being disrespectful to Mr. […]
You plan for as much as you can, and hope for the best… My events team, coupled with the CRU events team out of London, made the determination about a week ago that it was not going to be possible to conduct the SMU Steel Summit Conference at the Georgia International Convention Center in Atlanta […]
Memorial Day 2020 When you want to know where you are in life, look in your closet. There it was, bulging at the seams yet ignored. The cloth bag is blood red. I looked up the color online and the closest match was Vallejo Game Air Bloody Red. It is suspended by a white draw […]
U.S. Steel, AK Steel (Cleveland-Cliffs), Nucor, NLMK, ArcelorMittal and UPI all announced price increases today on flat rolled. With the exception of AMUSA, all were +$40/ton. AMUSA provided specific minimum base price guidance of $540 ($27.00.cwt) on hot rolled and $740 ($37.00/cwt) on cold rolled and coated products. Some early comments from various steel service […]
With the expectation of higher scrap prices coming for the month of June, on top of the steep rise in ferrous scrap this month, the mills’ margins may well be squeezed, which will impact negotiations and pricing over the next few weeks. Most steel buyers anticipate a new round of price increases by late May […]