Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. This analysis breaks down the imported tonnage of six flat rolled products into the district of entry and the source nation. We believe that misinformation (or lack of) about local import […]
September apparent steel supply slipped to 8.7 million net tons, the lowest level seen since December 2017, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute and U.S. Department of Commerce. Apparent steel supply, a proxy for demand, is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. […]
Will the market accept the recent price increases—a total of $80 on flat rolled and $40 on plate? Obviously much depends on steel demand. Judging by the responses from steel buyers polled this past week by Steel Market Update, demand remains a question mark. More than half of those responding to SMU’s market trends questionnaire […]
The U.S. exported 614,893 tons of steel in September, according to final Census data, a 6 percent decline from August, but up 5 percent from the same month one year ago. September exports were right in line with the 2019 average of 615,874 tons, but remain significantly muted compared to recent years. It was just […]
Steel Market Update was working on an article predicting a flat rolled price increase very soon when we received notice about 5 p.m. ET this evening that the Nucor Sheet Mill Group was raising base prices of flat rolled by a minimum of $40 per ton, effective immediately. This is the second flat rolled price […]
This afternoon Nucor Plate Mill Group increased prices for all plate products by $40 per ton ($2.00/cwt). The follows a $40 per ton increase on plate by Evraz North America dated Oct. 28, 2019. The Nucor increase is to be effective “immediately” and impacts all transaction (spot) prices on new orders of carbon, alloy and […]
Despite the Oct. 28 plate price increase announcement out of Evraz ($40/ton), plate prices continue to be under pressure. [Please note: This article was completed just prior to the Nucor $40 price increase announcement, which was made on plate products at 4 p.m. this afternoon.] A large plate buyer told SMU they had just received […]
Ferrous scrap prices traded $15-25/GT higher in November, with some variation by region, report Steel Market Update sources. Scrap prices were widely expected to rise in November due to slowing scrap flows, mills returning from seasonal outages, rising import demand and the onset of winter weather in some parts of the country. “Mills’ appetite for […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel HR futures markets have been range-trading the last few weeks as participants have been focusing on what appears to be a […]
Flat rolled prices are beginning to shift gear and are slowly rising after the recent $40 per ton price increase announcements by the domestic steel mills. SMU continues to see a wide variety of pricing in our survey this week, but our channel checks are providing details of prices firming (although some mills appear to […]
Raw steel output by U.S. mills increased by nearly a full percentage point in the week ending Nov. 2, the third increase in as many weeks, taking the average mill utilization up to 81.7 percent of capacity. Production totaled 1,888,000 net tons, up 1.2 percent from the previous week and up 0.1 percent compared with […]
October saw a small increase in finished steel imports, but a big increase in semifinished imports, based on Commerce Department license data for the full month. Finished steel imports saw a 14 percent decline from August to September in a comparison of the final Census Bureau data for the two months, followed by a small, […]
Two-thirds of the way through the month, steel imports into the United States are trending significantly lower in November compared with the prior month and averages for the year. Steel Market Update projections based on Commerce Department license data estimate imports will total about 2.1 million tons this month, well below the average for the […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
By CRU Senior Analysts Ryan McKinley (USA), Ryan Smith (Australia) and Erik Hedborg (UK) Part three of our three-part series: What’s next for U.S. iron ore production? In parts one and two of our series, we examined the U.S. iron ore industry and reviewed recent market developments. We also explored the dependency of U.S. iron […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley The rate of decline for U.S. domestic longs product prices is decelerating as steel buyers slowly return to the market and scrap market sentiment firms. Although not low, inventory levels have worked through enough for buyers to re-enter the market and conduct seasonal restocking. Still, domestic prices and demand […]
By CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch Last week, Turkish scrap import prices were assessed at $248 /t CFR for HMS 80:20. Only one deal was assessed from Europe, after strong restocking activity over recent weeks. Prices have been rising in recent weeks as sellers have pushed for gains as it had become uneconomic to supply at the lower prices […]
SMU contributor Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in […]
U.S. steel imports likely totaled around 2.4 million tons in October, near the 12-month average, based on the latest import license data from the Department of Commerce. Imports of semifinished steel approached a million tons as the mills moved to secure slabs in the first month of the fourth quarter. Slab imports, notably from Brazil, […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen We expect world GDP to grow by 2.5 percent this year and next; in other words, we expect global growth to be broadly stable at current rates. The story for world industrial production, instead, is one of a mild recovery from 1.4 percent in 2019 to 2.2 percent in […]
The market is just starting to react to the $40 price increase announced by the flat rolled mills late last week, making it a little tricky to settle on the price ranges in this issue of Steel Market Update. Generally speaking, it appears flat rolled prices are leaning upward, though SMU’s Steel Price Momentum Indictor […]
Ferrous scrap prices are expected to rise by about $20/GT in November, lending support to the increase in flat rolled prices announced by the mills last week. “With mills seeking the price hike, they are unlikely to push scrap lower. It would make their negotiating position more difficult,” said Ryan McKinley, CRU North America analyst. […]
Raw steel output by U.S. mills saw another small increase in the week ending Oct. 26 taking the average mill utilization rate back up over 80 percent of capacity. Production totaled 1,866,000 net tons at a utilization rate of 80.7 percent, up 1.4 percent from the previous week but down 0.6 percent compared with the […]
Steel imports are down significantly this year, the result of trade actions and economic forces, but the import market share is relatively unchanged. Through the first nine months of 2019, the U.S. imported at total of 22.6 million tons of steel, a 13.7 percent decline from the same period in 2018, reports the American Iron […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Iron ore prices have increased slightly overall in the past week despite early gains being met with falling prices at the start of this trading week. On Tuesday, Oct. 29, CRU assessed the 62% Fe fines price at $87.0 /t, a $2.0 /t increase w/w. Australian supply has continued […]
Four more mills–Nucor, U.S. Steel, USS-Posco and Algoma Steel–raised prices on their flat rolled products by $40 per ton ($2/cwt) Friday, following on similar announcements by ArcelorMittal and NLMK USA the day before. The mills are hoping to reverse the slide that has taken the benchmark price of hot rolled steel from more than $700 […]
By CRU Prices Analyst George Pearson The North American market has continued to see steel prices erode. We had previously anticipated that October scrap prices may be the lowest price seen over the next several years. We are now hearing that at least some market participants expect gains for November. The recent decline in scrap […]
Speculation that steel prices were near the bottom and the mills were contemplating a price increase has proven out as ArcelorMittal and NLMK USA both announced flat rolled price increases today of $40 per ton. Other mills are expected to follow. ArcelorMittal informed its commercial team today that it is raising base prices on light […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
As expected, import licenses for semifinished steel have seen a big jump in October, the first month of the fourth quarter, as domestic mills seek to secure needed slabs ahead of quarterly quota restrictions on imports from Brazil and other nations. Steel Market Update’s forecast of import licenses for the entire month show semifinished imports […]