Durable goods orders plummeted 14.4 percent in March to $213.2 billion, said the U.S. Census Bureau in its latest report. The decrease followed three consecutive months of increase and was the largest monthly decline since August 2014. Transportation equipment led the decrease in March falling 41 percent to $51.2 billion. Commercial aircraft and parts plunged […]
The COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly taken a toll on American lives and the economy. The first case of the disease in the U.S. was reported 88 days ago on Jan. 22. As of April 21, there have been 784,326 reported infections and 42,094 deaths. The toll on the U.S. economy has been devastating. Stay-at-home orders […]
Economic activity contracted “sharply and abruptly” last month, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report. The report, covering activity through April 6, showed leisure and hospitality industries bearing the brunt of the decline. “All Districts reported highly uncertain outlooks among business contacts, with most expecting conditions to worsen in the next several months,” said […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel Falling demand and mill capacity utilization rates below 60 percent do not seem to have damped the HR futures curve since […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey plunged to its lowest level ever, falling 57 points to a reading of -78.2, in April. “By way of comparison, the lowest level this indicator had reached prior to April was -34.3 during the Great Recession,” said the New York Federal Reserve. New York City has been the epicenter for […]
The U.S. dollar strengthened against 14 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last three months and also in the last month. There was a turnaround in the last seven days when the dollar weakened against 14 of the 16. In the last three months, the currencies of Brazil, Mexico, […]
Manufacturers and distributors up and down the supply chain have been disappointed to learn that their insurance coverage does not protect them from the coronavirus. “Pandemic outbreaks are uninsured because they are uninsurable,” said David A. Sampson, president and CEO of the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA), the trade group for home, auto and […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
In a new trade outlook by the World Trade Organization, WTO Director Roberto Azevêdo called the global economic situation “ugly.” “The unavoidable declines in trade and output will have painful consequences for households and businesses, on top of the human suffering caused by the disease itself,” said Azevêdo. “The immediate goal is to bring the […]
By CRU Senior Cost Analyst Ross Cunningham, from CRU’s Steel Monitor Covid-19 has spread across the world at alarming rates. As of March 28, the pandemic has reached 177 countries and shows little sign of letting up. When fighting a global health and economic crisis unlike anything ever seen before, there will be no winners—only […]
The employment situation in the U.S. is a disaster. The current economic situation is so extraordinarily dire that historical data and trend analysis is almost irrelevant except to illustrate the severity of the situation we are all experiencing. Net job creation in March was negative 701,000 and January was revised down by 59,000, according to […]
We’re all saturated with news of the employment disaster caused by the coronavirus, but to look at the long-term picture graphically is still shocking. Figure 1 shows the three-month moving average (3MMA) of the number of jobs created or lost through April since 2005 as the brown bars and the total number employed as the […]
The U.S. lost a net 701,000 jobs in March as the economy struggled with the coronavirus, and the labor situation is expected to be much worse in April. The brunt of March’s employment decline was felt by service industries. In the coming months, manufacturing and construction jobs will suffer more as well. Table 1 breaks […]
More than 20.5 million Americans lost their jobs in April, including 18.1 million in service industries and 2.4 million in goods-producing industries such as manufacturing and construction, according to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest job losses came on top of 870,000 lost in March, following a gain of 230,000 […]
The global impact of Covid-19 has been profound. Lockdowns of countries and regions are now the norm. Uncertainty about the ultimate economic cost of this health crisis has fuelled financial market volatility and prompted unprecedented government support. CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen joins Doug Hilderhoff, principal analyst for aluminium, and Josh Spoores, principal analyst for […]
The month of March saw government actions to stop the spread of the coronavirus begin to take a toll on steel demand and prices. In reaction, Steel Market Update’s Buyers Sentiment Index plunged by more than 20 points. Flat rolled steel prices declined from February, with the benchmark price of hot rolled down to a […]
Global manufacturing continued its downturn in March exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The J.P. Morgan Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.6 from 47.1 in February due to a stabilization of business conditions in China. China’s PMI jumped from 40.3 in February to 50.1 in March as manufacturing activity returned to more normal conditions after new coronavirus […]
A sharp decline in new orders and production drove the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI into contraction in March, falling to 49.1 from February’s reading of 50.1 percent. “The coronavirus pandemic and shocks in global energy markets have impacted all manufacturing sectors,” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management. New orders […]
The Chicago Business Barometer remained in contraction for the ninth month, declining 1.1 points in March to 47.8. New orders fell 7.9 percent while production slipped back into contraction. Order backlogs rose to their highest level since December 2019. “While some firms reported a rise in orders due to stockpiling by U.S. customers, others noted […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Overview March 2020 The global impact of Covid-19 has been profound. Lockdowns of countries and regions are now the norm. Uncertainty about the “end game” has fueled financial market volatility and prompted unprecedented government support. CRU is now forecasting a global recession in 2020; […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel This month HR physical prices as reflected by the index basically started at $560/ST and rose $20-plus to hold, then fell […]
Unemployment claims skyrocketed to nearly 3.3 million last week, compared to 282,000 filings the prior week. The number of Americans that have lost jobs due to the coronavirus is staggering. As governments shutter nonessential businesses and ask employees to stay home, companies have been forced to lay off and cut jobs for an unprecedented number […]
Orders for durable goods jumped 1.2 percent in February, but the uptick is not expected to last. Stay-at-home orders and rising unemployment due to the COVID-19 outbreak are likely to stifle demand as the economy heads into a recession. The volatile transportation category saw new orders for civilian aircraft dip 0.3 percent after a 356.7 […]
With so many people working from home lately, technology is becoming even more important in their professional lives. Analysts at Crowe LLP are studying the technology trends to help metals companies develop strategies to take advantage of the latest developments, and they could use your help. The 2019 Crowe Technology Survey revealed that most companies […]
Global steel production was relatively strong in February, but that was before the coronavirus really began to slow the economy. The IMF projects that the impending global recession will be as bad or worse than the global financial crisis a decade ago . Figure 1 shows annualized monthly global steel production on a three-month moving […]
Editor’s note: Various states, counties and cities have issued some form of “shelter-in-place” or “stay-at-home” orders including California, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Oregon, Ohio, Connecticut and Illinois, as well as cities such as St. Louis, Kansas City, New Orleans and some counties in Colorado, Georgia and Idaho, among others. The list grows by the […]
The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) is urging the Trump administration to identify the steel manufacturing sector and its workers as “essential” when drafting and enforcing shelter-in-place orders and other directives in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. “As the Secretary of Commerce determined in 2018, steel is important to national security well beyond obvious […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
Yesterday Steel Market Update received a note from USS/POSCO regarding their waiver from the mandatory “shelter in their place of residence” order within Contra Costa County in California. UPI received their waiver due to the “essential nature of UPI’s business and services.” SMU anticipates there may be situations that arise where a mill, manufacturing company […]
The currencies of the commodity dependent nations have crashed in a flight to the safe haven of the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar strengthened against 13 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last three months. In the last 30 days, the currencies of Brazil, Mexico and Russia were down […]