Contributor: Brett Linton

Domestic mills continue to produce record volumes of steel, according to AISI's latest figures.

In this Premium analysis we examine North American oil and natural gas prices, drill rig activity, and crude oil stock levels. Trends in energy prices and rig counts serve as leading indicators for oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and line pipe demand.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index sharply fell to one of the lowest levels recorded in five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment marginally improved.

All five of the averages for sheet and plate mill lead times tracked by SMU extended moderately this week, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.

Most steel buyers responding to our market survey this week reported that domestic mills are considerably less willing to talk price on sheet products than they were in recent weeks, but remain open to bargain on plate prices.

Following three months of little to no growth, the Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) increased in May, according to the latest data released by Dodge Construction Network

The amount of finished steel that entered the US market in April declined 3% from March but remained at elevated levels, according to SMU’s analysis of Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.

Steel prices climbed for a second straight week across all five sheet and plate products tracked by SMU.

Domestic steel mills are ramping up production, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), with output rising to a three-year high last week.

US steel exports totaled 579,000 short tons (st) in April, according to US Department of Commerce data. That's the lowest monthly volume recorded since July 2020.

April now represents the third-lowest monthly import rate witnessed in nearly two and a half years, with several steel products falling to multi-year lows

On Monday and Tuesday, SMU polled steel buyers for their thoughts on the current market. We received an array of feedback, including prices, demand, inventories, imports, and evolving market events.

Following eight consecutive weeks of declines, sheet and plate prices saw some upward movement this week in the wake of last Friday’s Section 232 tariff increase announcement. Gains varied by product.

SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of our key steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through May 30.

US raw steel production rose again last week, climbing to the highest weekly output recorded since last September, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

The price premium of galvanized coil over hot-rolled (HR) coil has narrowed over the past two months, resuming the downward trend seen for most of the last year. As of May 27, the spread between these two products is at one of its lowest levels in nearly two years.

Oil and gas drilling activity declined again this week in both the US and Canada, according to Baker Hughes.

After reaching multi-month lows in mid-May, SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices modestly recovered in our latest survey.

Mill lead times shrunk this week for all of the sheet products tracked by SMU and held steady on plate, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.

Most steel buyers responding to our latest market survey report that domestic mills are willing to talk price to secure new orders. Mill negotiability has continued to rise across all sheet and plate products we track, now at some of the highest levels recorded since late 2024.

Total US mill output rebounded last week to the highest rate recorded since last September, according to raw production figures released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Sheet and plate prices marginally declined again this week for the second consecutive week, pausing the strong downward trend seen from April through early May.

Oil and gas drilling activity declined in both the US and Canada this week, according to Baker Hughes.

Steel Market Update will be taking time off in observance of Memorial Day.

Global raw steel production dipped from March to April, according to the latest release from the World Steel Association.

According to our latest analysis, prices for four of the seven steelmaking raw materials we track increased from April to May. However, select materials saw a collective 1% decline month over month and are down 4% compared to three months ago.

For the third month in a row, architecture firms reported a reduction in billings through April, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index release.

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

Most sheet and plate prices edged lower again this week, albeit at a slower pace compared to the movements seen over the last seven weeks. Buyers remain cautious and hesitant to hold onto much inventory, citing lingering demand concerns, ongoing tariff uncertainty, and a potentially weakening scrap market in June.

Following three weekly increases, domestic mill output edged lower last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).