By CRU Senior Cost Economist Ross Cunningham, from CRU’s Economic Outlook Political uncertainty equals big losses for Americas currencies. During the latter half of 2019, currencies in key South American economies have lost significant ground against the dollar. Since these economies depend on commodity exports for their growth, the negative effects of the trade war […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level subscribers. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The U.S. economy continued to grow in 2019, but at a slower rate as the year progressed. The third estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q3 2019 was 2.1 […]
By CRU Analyst Sam Grant, from CRU’s Zinc Monitor The North American market (U.S., Canada and Mexico) accounts for approximately 9.6 percent of global refined zinc demand. This year, we have seen a sharp slowdown in both global trade and industrial production, with the North American region experiencing its slowest rate of IP growth since […]
All the laid off auto workers were back on the job at the beginning of November following the GM strike and restarts at the auto plans reportedly went smoothly. This analysis is based on data from LMC Automotive for automotive assemblies in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The breakdown of assemblies is “Personal” (cars for […]
Crude oil prices broke out to the upside in December, but the rig count continues to decline. U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, naphtha, and many others, exceeded imports in September by 89,000 barrels a day, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Nov. 28. Thus, the U.S. […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Last week was one of the most eventful for trade this year: USMCA Agreement Editor’s note: The House voted to pass the USMCA earlier today. The Senate is unlikely to vote on the measure before completion of the […]
After declining for much of 2019, steel prices have moved up substantially in the last two months. Will the trend continue into 2020? Flat rolled steel producers raised prices three times during October and November for a total of $110 per ton. (Editor’s note: ArcelorMittal USA announced an additional $40 flat rolled increase on Friday. […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison On Dec. 13, U.S. Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, released a statement indicating that the U.S. and China had come to terms on a “phase 1” trade deal. The opening sentence of the USTR press release states, “The United States and China have reached an historic and enforceable agreement on […]
In October, demand for sheet products declined by more than the seasonal norm. Demand for long products is softening as construction expenditures decline. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import-export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
October apparent steel supply remained steady at 8.7 million net tons, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute and U.S. Department of Commerce. October supply is the second lowest level seen in the last 23 months, with the lowest occuring the month prior. Apparent steel supply, a proxy for demand, is determined […]
CNBC reported comments made by White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow on Tuesday saying, “The reality is those tariffs are still on the table.” This is in reference to the tweet from President Trump regarding steel from Brazil and Argentina. Steel buyers should be aware that there has not been a presidential proclamation, or anything […]
The U.S. exported 709,496 tons of steel in October, according to final Census data, a 15 percent increase from September and up 12 percent from the same month one year ago. October exports were 13 percent above the 2019 average of 625,236 tons, but remain significantly muted compared to recent years. As shown in the […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service This piece sets out insights gained from a visit to CRUs Beijing office. The trade war has been an unexpected headwind to China’s economy and there is a real concern about the risks of a sharper than desirable growth slowdown. In response the government […]
Editor’s note: President Trump’s surprise decision to impose 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Argentina and Brazil stunned the industry and leaves many questions unanswered. Paul Nathanson, executive director of the Coalition of American Metal Manufacturers and Users (CAMMU), addressed the issue in the following op-ed: President Trump announced via tweet on Monday that […]
Total light vehicle sales are likely to reach 17.1 million units this year, down 1.4 percent from 2018 and above 17 million for the fifth straight year, says J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. As usual, sales were strongest for SUVs and trucks. U.S. auto sales rose for most foreign automakers during November. Toyota sales increased […]
November’s licensed import volume of total rolled steel products was the lowest since February 2010. Year over year, total rolled product imports in November were down by 27.4 percent on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This follows the 17.7 percent decrease in October and 15.5 percent decline in September on the same basis. This […]
This morning President Trump tweeted that due to the decline in the Brazilian and Argentinian currencies, he intends to place 25 percent tariffs on steel and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum from both countries. His tweet has created a great deal of confusion in the U.S. steel markets. Steel Market Update is attempting to […]
This morning President Trump tweeted that due to currency manipulation by Brazil and Argentina, he intends to place 25 percent tariffs on steel from both countries, and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum. His tweet has created a great deal of confusion in the U.S. steel markets. Steel Market Update is attempting to help calm […]
Trade disputes and uncertainty regarding U.S. economic growth are causing businesses to delay or cancel construction plans, said the Associated General Contractors of America in a new analysis of construction spending data. Construction spending declined 0.8 percent in October from September, but topped year-ago levels by 1.1 percent as decreases in private nonresidential, multifamily and […]
Irrespective of the GM strike, light vehicle assemblies in North America slowed through October. This report is based on data from LMC Automotive for automotive assemblies in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The breakdown of assemblies is “Personal” (cars for personal use) and “Commercial” (light vehicles less than 6.0 tonnes gross vehicle weight rating). Heavy […]
A strike by 3,200 Teamster union employees at Canadian National Railway is causing disruption in both Canada and the U.S. Now in its sixth day, with no end in sight, a shortage of propane is imminent for Ontario and Quebec as well as delays to shipping across the manufacturing industry. CN transports more than CAD […]
By Senior Analyst Manjot Singh, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor The past week was characterized by improving sentiment in the Chinese and Indian steel industry. Chinese HRC and rebar prices increased substantially w/w (see data below) on the back of higher demand. Even the HRC prices in India witnessed a $7 /t increase w/w, […]
By CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service Although profitability for domestic sales in China has fallen sharply in 2019, steel exports from the country have not risen. Historically, when domestic profitability dropped, exports would rise. Prior analysis has shown that the strength of the domestic market is a key driver […]
By CRU Analysts Kevin Bai and Iris Speelmanns, from CRU’s Iron Ore Costs China has launched a probe into steelmaking capacity to understand the true state of the industry. If the government views the current state as detrimental to its reform agenda, orders to curb supply could be forthcoming. If enough capacity is curbed, this […]
Demand for steel sheet products declined by more than the seasonal norm in September. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import/export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis summarizes total steel supply by product from 2003 […]
October’s licensed import volume of total rolled steel products continued the decline from September and was the lowest since February 2011. Rolled product imports in October were down by 17.7 percent on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis year over year. This follows the 15.5 percent decline in September. This early look at October’s import […]
By Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) rose by 7.5 percent m/m to 195.7 (see chart) after prices rose in most markets. The most pronounced rebounds were in the U.S. and European scrap markets, while prices in Asia either rose or were stable. Prices in regions […]
September apparent steel supply slipped to 8.7 million net tons, the lowest level seen since December 2017, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute and U.S. Department of Commerce. Apparent steel supply, a proxy for demand, is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. […]