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    Hot Rolled Futures: Into the Arena


    Editor’s note: SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial leadership roles involving purchasing, sales, and risk management for Feralloy Corporation, Cargill Steel Service Centers and Plateplus Inc. You can learn more about Metal Edge at www.metaledgepartners.com. Bryan can be reached at Bryan@metaledgepartners.com.

    Following the conclusion of the NBA finals on Tuesday night, one of the TV analysts quoted Theodore Roosevelt’s famous “Citizenship in a Republic” speech in a post-game analysis as a nod to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s epic game 6 performance and his eight-year journey in becoming an NBA champion. Many refer to Roosevelt’s “Man in the Arena” paragraph of the speech as the most memorable. It is one of my all-time favorites. It has provided inspiration to Ryder cup captains and Rugby coaches and has been memorized by Naval Academy plebes for years and recited by presidents from Nixon to Obama. At its core, the passage is about adversity, courage, resilience and consequence. Oddly, it made me think of the steel market over the last year and a half. 

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    Plate supply squeeze tightens as demand presses higher

    The domestic plate market is showing few signs of relief for steel buyers. Lead times are stretching well beyond seasonal norms, spot availability has all but evaporated, and mills are drawing hard lines on contract volumes heading into 2027 negotiations. And the supply squeeze will likely intensify in a market that some industry sources say is structurally undersupplied because of stringent US trade and tariff policies. Imports have been arriving in larger volumes, and the expectation is they will continue to tick higher into 2027. The big question is whether those foreign tons will arrive in volumes sufficient to provide the relief steel consumers want.