International Steel Prices

US HRC premium over offshore product down, nears $150/st

Written by David Schollaert

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices were again lower this week, pushing the price premium domestic hot band carries over imported products lower vs. the prior week.

All told, US HRC prices are 17.4% more expensive than imports. The premium is down from 19% in last week’s analysis. US prices are noticeably down from a high of 27% just over a one month ago.

In dollars-per-ton terms, US HRC is now on average $171 per short ton (st) more expensive than offshore product, down just $19 on average week on week (w/w) but down nearly $110/st from an average premium of $281/st a month ago, and a four-month low.

This week, domestic HRC tags were $980/st on average based on SMU’s latest check of the market on Tuesday, Jan. 30. Prices slipped below the $1,000/st mark for the first time since November.


This is how SMU calculates the theoretical spread between domestic HRC prices (FOB domestic mills) and foreign HRC prices (delivered to US ports): We compare SMU’s US HRC weekly index to the CRU HRC weekly indices for Germany, Italy, and East and Southeast Asian ports. This is only a theoretical calculation. Import costs can vary greatly, influencing the true market spread.

We add $90 per ton to all foreign prices as a rough means of accounting for freight costs, handling, and trader margin. This gives us an approximate CIF US ports price to compare to the SMU domestic HRC price. Buyers should use our $90-per-ton figure as a benchmark and adjust up or down based on their own shipping and handling costs. If you import steel and want to share your thoughts on these costs, please get in touch with the author at

Asian HRC (East and Southeast Asian ports)

As of Thursday, Feb. 1, the CRU Asian HRC price was $544/st, down $5/st vs. the prior week. Adding a 25% tariff and $90/st in estimated import costs, the delivered price of Asian HRC to the US is approximately $770/st. The latest SMU hot rolled average for domestic material is $980/st.

The result: US-produced HRC is theoretically $210/st more expensive than steel imported from Asia. The spread is down $14/st vs. last week, and down $71/st from a seven-month high of $281/st in late December.

Italian HRC

Italian HRC prices were up $3/st to roughly $727/st this week. With that gain, Italian prices are up $150/st from a recent bottom of $577/st last October. After adding import costs, the delivered price of Italian HRC is in theory $817/st.

That means domestic HRC is theoretically $163/st more expensive than HRC imported from Italy. The spread is down from $186/st w/w. Domestic hot band price premium over offshore product from Italy is down $134/st from a recent high of $297/st in mid-December.

German HRC

CRU’s German HRC price unchanged vs. the week prior, holding at $750/st. After adding import costs, the delivered price of German HRC is in theory $840/st.

The result: Domestic HRC is theoretically $140/st more expensive than HRC imported from Germany. The spread is now $125/st below 2023’s widest spread of $265/st, which was recorded just about a month ago.

Figure 4 compares all four price indices. The chart on the right zooms in to highlight the difference in pricing from the second quarter of 2023 to the present.

Notes: Freight is important in deciding whether to import foreign steel or buy from a domestic mill. Domestic prices are referenced as FOB the producing mill, while foreign prices are CIF the port (Houston, NOLA, Savannah, Los Angeles, Camden, etc.). Inland freight, from either a domestic mill or from the port, can dramatically impact the competitiveness of both domestic and foreign steel. It’s also important to factor in lead times. In most markets, domestic steel will deliver more quickly than foreign steel.

Effective Jan. 1, 2022, Section 232 tariffs no longer applied to most imports from the European Union. It has been replaced by a tariff rate quota (TRQ). Therefore, the German and Italian price comparisons in this analysis no longer include a 25% tariff. SMU still includes the 25% Section 232 tariff on prices from other countries. We do not include any antidumping (AD) or countervailing duties (CVD) in this analysis.

David Schollaert

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