Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we had AI analyze all of the responses and identify five key themes. Here’s what it pulled:

• Downward pricing pressure: Most respondents expect steel prices to trend lower over the next three months due to weak demand, ample supply, and tariff uncertainty.
• Slower inventory movement: Inventories are generally moving more slowly than last year, with cautious buying and uncertainty leading to ‘hand-to-mouth’ purchasing patterns.
• Uncertainty around tariffs: The majority of respondents are unsure about the impact of Trump-era tariffs. Few report benefits, and some say the policies are actively hurting their businesses.
• Imports gaining attention but not widely adopted: While some buyers see imports as becoming more attractive, long lead times and ongoing tariff uncertainty keep many focused on domestic sourcing.

Want to share your market perception? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Trending lower – there is more supply than demand and mills will be competing for orders.”

“Reduction – softening demand, slower lead times, weakening mill order books.”

“Prices will be down 10% from today. Supply is good but demand is weak.”

“Lower until Trump gets things sorted out.”

“Minor downward adjustments until the tariffs are more stable.”

“Somewhat down through August and then start to pick up again. Summertime, baby!”

“Lower in May and June – heading higher at the start of Q3’25.”

“Steady on discrete plate, no decline.”

“Down – demand is not strong, just stable. However, our demand for plate is strong.”

“Prices will stabilize in the mid-term and could actually increase in three months. It really depends on reciprocal tariffs, and if this drives the US and world into a recession or not.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand is stable to declining. I don’t know anyone (in literally any industry) who is busy and or bullish for the next few months.”

“Stable, but the year is shaping up to be below our expectations, which were lower than recent years.”

“Stable as trade and tariffs have started to calm down.”

“Stable for plate, could be better, could always be better. Lowering prices will not increase demand, so no reason to lower numbers.”

“Stable, with better margins.”

“Stable but weakening.”

“After a nice increase in April and early May, demand seems to be trending down due to … tariff uncertainty, inflation, and a consumer with less money to spend.”

“Demand is declining, based on buyers sitting out again with prices under pressure. Demand has been pretty stable, but buying patterns are irregular.”

“Demand is declining and weak in the restocking levels.”

“Declining due to tariffs and a slowing construction market.”

“Declining, everyone is waiting on further price decreases.”

“Improving very slightly.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Slower, orders aren’t coming in with too much market uncertainty.”

“Slower, hand-to-mouth buying. Buyers willing to wait until specific holes open up and then pay up.”

“A little slower, but last year we were losing money in Q2. This year, volumes are down but performance is way up.”

“A lot slower.”

“Slower due to low demand.”

“Slower, tariff uncertainty.”

“Inventory is moving about the same for us, maybe a smidge slower. But we definitely have less than we did heading into last summer.”

“I would say faster in the last month and heading for a slowdown as pricing falls.”

“Around the same, maybe slightly faster.”

“Faster, we seem to be in a niche market right now where activity is strong.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

The majority of buyers responding to this question (74%) are unsure how the policies will impact their business. Almost a quarter (23%) feel their businesses are not benefiting, and only 3% believe the tariffs are helping them.

Comments included:

“Not helping because customers are uncertain about tariffs causing price increases.”

“At this point they’re hurting just because consumer confidence has been shot.”

“The price spike, and now what I feel will be a valley caused by mills overreacting helps no one in the long run.”

“We saw an uptick in demand for our products before the election.”

“Terrible, they are hurting our business.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Not attractive, too much domestic softening. Expecting further domestic price reductions.”

“Imports are not attractive due to falling prices and longer lead times.”

“No, still too many unknowns and with downward pressure in the domestic market the gap isn’t big enough.”

“Imports on plate are not attractive as most buyers require M&M in USA plate for their customer projects.”

“No, lead times are too long and we’re uncertain if tariff costs will change.”

“Imports are OK. I think there is some concern on lead times, and obviously the off-and-on tariff talk has some folks nervous.”

“Not yet, but they will be before long. UK might already be attractive if the quota actually works.”

“Imports are becoming more attractive, but the lead times prevent us from placing orders amid demand uncertainty.”

“They are more attractive than where analysts have prices currently, but buyers believe in a bigger drop, so not as competitive.”

“More attractive into Canada due to US tariff war with Canada on steel.”

“Imports are always more attractively priced.”

“Imports are more attractive on light-gauge material.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“We certainly don’t need more domestic steelmaking capacity.”

“With 2024 being a down year for SSCs and this year looking to be tough as well, are we ripe for more sector consolidation?”

“I think the expectation was that inventories would grow and that would aid in prices falling, but inventories have not really grown.”

“Customers are reporting holes in their inventories, but most are able to wait for mill lead times.”

“Idling of Cliffs Riverdale on high carbon and alloy market.”

“Pig iron market costing and availability.”