The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), a gauge of economic activity and inflation, decreased to-0.44 in March from -0.38 in February. The three month moving average for the index also moved downwards to -0.18 from the revised February reading of -0.11 indicates national economic growth was below trend and suggest subdued inflationary pressure in […]
Steel producing nations meeting in Brussels on Monday failed to agree on measures to confront the world’s excess steel capacity problem. The meeting, organized by the OECD, brought together ministers and trade officials from 30 countries who only could agree that overcapacity needs to be dealt with swiftly and in a structured manner. China took […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds, then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are close. In the last thirteen quarters since Q1 2013, the Feds reported total job creation of 8,948,000 and the states reported 8,610,400. There is a difference in these reports that shrinks the […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. This month the historical data has been revised and we have updated our files back to January 2000. The index had an all-time high of 106.40 in January 2015 but on a month over month basis has declined for 13 of the […]
During the Steel Caucus hearings last week USW International President Leo Gerard articulated the plight of more than 13,500 U.S. steelworkers that are currently holding layoff notices and the need for immediate action to address the flood of foreign steel imports and global overcapacity. “The current steel crisis is primarily caused by unfair foreign trade […]
China has agreed to eliminate some export subsidies on products exported to the United States, said U.S. officials this week. The subsidized products gave advantages to small firms in seven industries, including textiles and seafood, and were in violation of World Trade Organization rules. It is estimated that government subsidies for the program totaled about […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey reached its highest level in more than a year in April. The headline general business index rose 9 points to 9.6, continuing a second positive month with respondents reporting business conditions have improved. New orders picked up two points to register 11.1 after making strong gains in March. Shipments continued […]
We have include an abridged statement from the IMF that was released on Tuesday this week and in which the commodity situation continues to loom large. Our SMU data analysis follows with comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2021. We believe that an understanding of global influences is essential if […]
The surge in steel imports is a threat to national security according to a new paper released by the Alliance for American Manufacturing. AAM says steel is essential to national security, as it equips the military and builds infrastructure. The report’s findings were commented on at the Congressional Steel Caucus this week. “Steel from Northwest […]
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said she will crack down on Chinese steel dumping if elected president. Clinton vowed to triple the number of trade enforcement officials, pursue countervailing duties on subsidized imports, confront currency manipulation and appoint a new trade prosecutor that reports directly to the president. Chinese steelmaking overcapacity continues to be a […]
The American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) released the following statement urging the U.S. government not to support market economy status for China. Falls Church, VA. April 12, 2016. The recent steel production cutbacks in China are positive but not sufficient steps in the right direction because they leave in place the state-owned enterprises [SOEs] […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through February 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and […]
The American Institute for International Steel submitted comments and will provide testimony on overcapacity in the global steel industry at a hearing convened by the U.S. Trade Representative on April 12, 2016. AIIS recognizes the damage caused to the U.S. steel industry from sustained excess steel capacity and urges the United States and the Organization […]
Steel buyers were pulling out their hair earlier today due to the number of mills holding tons off the market as they try to determine what the new pricing should be on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume products. As of early this afternoon (Thursday) steel buyers were informing Steel Market Update of a […]
On Friday and Saturday of this past week, Steel Market Update attended the Association of Steel Distributors spring meeting. The following are some of the notes made during the presentations and during discussions with ASD members. Dr. Chris Kuehl of Armada Corporate Intelligence reported that he is “a little optimistic” when it comes to the […]
In what is hoped to be good news for the steel industry, manufacturing as measured by the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business expanded for the first time in six months. The PMI, or Purchasing Managers Index, increased 2.3 percentage points to register 51.8 from a reading of 49.5, indicating expansion in manufacturing and the […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q4 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. The annualized growth rate in the third estimate of the fourth quarter was 1.38 percent, down from 1.97 percent, in the third quarter and down from 3.86 percent in Q2. Normally […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday in their analysis of non-farm employment that 215,000 jobs were added in March, down from 245,000 in February but up from 168,000 in January. January and February were revised down by a total of 1,000. An explanation of the BLS report is included at the end […]
Consumer Confidence rose from an upwardly revised 94.0 in February to 96.2 in March. Included below is the official news release from the Conference Board. Our SMU analysis is exactly the opposite from the official version. This is not to say who is right and who is not but to point out to our members […]
March saw flat rolled steel prices rising throughout the month. SMU benchmark hot rolled average for the month was $427 per ton. This was slightly lower than Platts which revised their HRC number on the 30th which took their average up to $432 per ton. Both Platts and SMU monthly averages were higher than the […]
The Chicago Business Barometer, or Chicago PMI as it is commonly called, surged six points in March to 53.6. The bounce back from February’s 8 point contraction was due to strong gains in production, new orders and order backlogs. The employment index rose above 50 in March to its highest level since April 2015. Inventories […]
Members of the Precision Metalforming Association are expecting business conditions to falter a bit during the next three months. The March PMA Business Conditions Report indicated a minor downward trend with 25 percent of participants predicting that economic activity will improve in the next three months (down from 30 percent in February), 59 percent expecting […]
Orders for durable goods fell 2.8 percent in February for the third decline in four months. The latest report from the Commerce Department shows transportation equipment leading the decrease, down 1.2 percent last month. Civilian aircraft orders plunged 27.1 percent leading the transportation equipment descent. Inventories continued to decrease as manufacturers struggle to bring inventories […]
The Architecture Billings Index made a slight gain in February, posting a score of 50.3 after falling to 49.6 in January. The score above 50 indicates a minor increase in design services for the month. The new projects inquiry index was 59.4, up from 59.3 the previous month. The design contract index was 51.7. “March […]
Orders for durable goods fell 2.8 percent in February for the third decline in four months. The latest report from the Commerce Department shows transportation equipment leading the decrease, down 1.2 percent last month. Civilian aircraft orders plunged 27.1 percent leading the transportation equipment descent. Inventories continued to decrease as manufacturers struggle to bring inventories […]
Manufacturing activity expanded in the Fifth District in March, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index registered 22, surging from -4 to its highest level since April 2010. Shipments and new orders both jumped this month. The shipments index gained 38 points climbing to a reading […]
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped lower than expected in February for reading of -0.29 percent from +0.41 percent in January. The reading of -0.29 indicates below average growth for the national economy. The four main components of the headline index, production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last week reported results through February. We run this analysis every three or four months to give readers […]
Record auto sales may be less about a stronger economy and more about auto lending practices, according to recent data by Fitch Ratings. Auto loans given to borrowers with lower credit scores, called subprime loans, have resulted in an alarming rate of auto loan defaults. Seriously delinquent subprime car loans rose above five percent in […]
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for March rose sharply to the first positive reading in seven months. The index gained 15.2 points to register 12.4. The index for new orders jumped 21 points to 15.7, returning to growth status, while shipments climbed 20 points. Both unfilled orders and deliver times improved in March, […]