How anxious is the steel market in the face of sharply declining steel prices? Based on Steel Market Update’s survey this week, anxiety levels are not as high as one might think. As more than one steel exec has commented recently, “Demand will be our saving grace.” SMU asked service center and manufacturing executives in […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has seen little change in the past two months despite declining steel prices and concerns about the economy and COVID heading into 2022. SMU surveys buyers every two weeks and asks how they view their chances of success in the near and longer term. SMU’s Current […]
I want to spend some time talking about the Steel Market Update website and the value that can be found there. Over the years we have tweaked and added new content to the site as we strive to provide more information to the industry and our readers. The SMU Website There are a number of […]
Steel mill lead times – a leading indicator of prices – continue to trend downward and are approaching what used to be considered “normal.” If lead times are nearing a point at which they may soon level off, what might that say about steel prices? Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week puts […]
The power position in price negotiations between steel mills and steel purchasers has seen a complete turnabout in the past seven months, transitioning from a nearly 100% seller’s market in July 2021 to a 100% buyer’s market today (see chart below). Every two weeks, Steel Market Update asks readers: Are you finding the domestic mills […]
The United States and the United Kingdom have officially started talks that could ease Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum from Great Britain. The discussions would also seek to end UK measures imposed against certain U.S. exports in retaliation for the 25% security tariffs on steel and 10% tariffs on aluminum, U.S. and UK […]
SMU’s latest prices are out, and hot-rolled coil is down by $55 per ton while galvanized prices are down a comparatively modest $25 per ton. That’s been the trend for a while now – that galvanized prices have been “stickier” than hot-rolled coil prices on the way down. I wrote last week in Final Thoughts […]
I was reading your Final Thoughts and appreciated most of your comments, but I have some major issues with the inaccuracy of this paragraph. “Accounting tricks like inventory write-downs can help narrow the gap between a service center’s cost for steel and what a customer is willing to pay for it. But some losses are inevitable, […]
Flat Rolled = 63.9 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 67.1 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled U.S. service center flat rolled inventories jumped in December, in line with seasonal trends. At the end of December, service centers carried 63.9 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, up from 57.1 in November, according to […]
Monthly Key Market Indicators continued their shift to a neutral position throughout December, according to the latest analysis by Steel Market Update. Positive indicators held for the first time in seven months, while negative indicators eased. Ongoing economic dynamics such as an underperforming job market, supply-chain bottlenecks, rising inflation and producer prices, as well as a […]
Selling secondary steel isn’t what it used to be in a market niche that seems to be getting smaller. The secondary market has always been about relationships and matching customers’ needs to the nonprime material that becomes available. And in the current environment, there’s even more wheeling and dealing, sources told me this week. “It’s a […]
Wiley partner Alan Price will be the featured speaker on Steel Market Update’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Jan. 26, at 11 a.m. ET (10 a.m. CT). We’ll discuss the big issues facing steel when it comes to trade policy – with a particular focus on Section 232 developments: Will there be a deal […]
The bubble is bursting. Not just any bubble. We’re talking the bubble that is ridiculously wide spreads between hot-rolled coil prices and base prices for cold rolled and coated products. Case in point: SMU’s hot-rolled coil price stands at $1,480 per ton, and our cold-rolled and galvanized base prices are at $1,880 per ton – […]
Wiley partner Alan Price will be the featured speaker on Steel Market Update’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Jan. 26, at 11 a.m. ET (10 a.m. CT). We’ll discuss the big issues facing steel when it comes to trade policy – with a particular focus on Section 232 developments: Will there be a deal […]
Flat-rolled steel prices continue to fall, but the market participants I spoke to today were taking the news in stride. SMU’s average hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,480 per ton ($74 per cwt), down $55 per ton from $1,535 per ton a week ago and down $475 per ton from a 2021 high – […]
SMU’s Community Chat webinar with Wolfe Research metals and mining managing director Timna Tanners last week was our second-best attended ever. With more than 800 registered attendees, Tanners topped her own previous record. Barry Zekelman, executive chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries, still holds the title. But not by quite as wide a margin. We […]
The big question entering 2022 is how fast, and how far, steel prices will decline. As Wolfe Research Managing Director Timna Tanners said during our Community Chat this week, “the trajectory for 2022 will depend on the pace of destocking, the new capacity ramping up and demand.” Steel Market Update’s latest survey data offers some […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz Tomorrow in Geneva, the U.S., Russia and Ukraine will start talks that could defuse, or not, the threat of war in Europe. Of course, a war has been going on between Russia and Ukraine for a while. In 2013, Viktor Yanukovich, then Ukraine’s president, rejected an agreement that would have […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz Last week, the Supreme Court issued two important preliminary rulings in cases that challenged the authority of the Executive Branch to require vaccinations for workers. In one, the Court ruled 6-3 that the Secretary of Labor (through the Occupational Safety and Health Administration or OSHA) probably lacked the authority to […]
Looking for the latest data on the status of the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) with the European Union? SMU is here to help – even if the figures are not as user-friendly as we might like. Recall that the TRQ, which was signed into effect over the holidays by President Joe Biden, replaces blanket Section 232 […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, saw its highest readings ever in September 2021. Not coincidentally, so did steel prices. In the four months since then, steel prices have softened by some 20%. Industry sentiment has also softened, but to a lesser extent – and it remains well above year-ago levels. SMU surveys buyers […]
Popular analyst Timna Tanners may have changed where she works but not her view that there’s a “sheet storm” on the horizon, one that will bring in sharply lower steel prices over the next few years. Formerly with Bank of America, Tanners is now the managing director of metals and mining at Wolfe Research. Speaking […]
Lead times on spot orders from domestic steel mills continue to decline, with no sign yet of how soon they might level out. Declining lead times are a leading indicator of declining steel prices. The average lead time for hot rolled is now approaching four and a half weeks, while cold rolled and galvanized are […]
After a year in which steel mills could basically name their price, 2022 is shaping up to be a buyer’s market – at least for the foreseeable future. Nearly all (96%) of the service center and manufacturing executives responding to Steel Market Update’s survey this week reported that the mills are willing to negotiate prices […]
Where will hot-rolled coil prices be at the end of the first quarter? That’s what we asked respondents to SMU’s latest survey. And the short answer is that they’ll be lower – but there is little consensus on just how much lower. We asked this: “Hot-rolled coil prices averaged $1,600 per ton at the end […]
Wolfe Research Managing Director Timna Tanners will be the featured speaker for Steel Market Update’s first Community Chat webinar of 2022 on Wednesday, Jan. 5. We’ll discuss the big issues – the great debates – that will drive steel markets next year: • Will we see continued solid demand in 2022 or a “great unwind”? • […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz It’s a new year and a new start on many things. COVID does not appear to be one of them, but China relations may be. At the beginning of 2020, China and the U.S. agreed to settle some of their trade differences by inking a deal that reduced some U.S. […]
U.S. President Joe Biden has officially implemented a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) that will ease Section 232 restrictions on steel from the European Union. “I have determined that specified volumes of eligible steel … imports from the EU will no longer threaten to impair the national security,” Biden wrote in a presidential proclamation. The president did […]
Steel Market Update is taking some time off for Christmas and for the New Year. That means we will not publish issues on Sunday, Dec. 26, Tuesday, Dec. 28, Thursday, Dec. 30, and Sunday, Jan. 2. We will in addition not update prices on Tuesday, Dec. 28. We will resume our regular publication schedule – as […]
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Tonight’s issue will be the final one for this year. We will pick up publishing our newsletters again on Tuesday, Jan. 4. The first thing I want to do tonight is to thank every one of our members for their support over this past year. In light of the […]