The latest Energy Information Administration estimates show U.S. liquid fuels consumption averaged 16.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in Q2 2020, down 20 percent from Q2 2019 due to COVID-related travel restrictions and reduced economic activity. EIA forecasts U.S. liquid fuels consumption will average 18.9 million b/d in Q3 (down 1.8 million b/d YOY), rising to […]
The U.S. consumer’s confidence in the present situation has deteriorated drastically in response to the pandemic. The composite value of consumer confidence in August, reported by The Conference Board, was 84.8 with a three-month moving average (3MMA) of 91.6. The 3MMA has decreased from 130.4 in February. This indicator is quite volatile, therefore the moving […]
Active U.S and Canadian gas and oil rigs were flat to down this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs remained steady at 254, […]
Orders for durable goods jumped 11.2 percent in July after rising 7.7 percent in June, posting gains for the third straight month and beating all expectations. Automotive orders drove the increase, leaping 22 percent following a robust 24 percent increase in June. Orders for core capital goods–nondefense goods excluding aircraft which are considered an indicator […]
Metalforming companies across the country reported a slight improvement in business conditions in August but are still expecting the next few months to be challenging, according to the latest survey by the Precision Metalforming Association. Most metalforming companies (45 percent) are expecting no change in economic activity in the next three months, while 38 percent […]
Industry sentiment has improved in the past two weeks, as measured by Steel Market Update. SMU’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Indexes took a dip in July but rebounded in the latest check of the market for reasons that are not entirely clear. Respondents bemoan the persistent uncertainty, but business is good in certain sectors. SMU asks […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Our global economic forecast has stabilized as our understanding of the economic impact brought on by the virus has improved. In August, there have been some offsetting changes across regions with the USA and China data a little stronger than expected and the EU […]
For more than 28 percent of steel buyers, business is back to pre-COVID levels already, while at the other end of the spectrum 9 percent have seen little or no recovery. For the vast majority in between, the recovery process is a slow and ongoing one. In the latest market canvass this week, SMU asked: […]
Manufacturing activity in the New York region slowed in August, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The Empire State Manufacturing Index slid 14 points to 3.7 in August, well below economists’ estimates in the range of 14-17. A reading above zero indicates activity is expanding. “After increasing significantly in July for the […]
Flat Rolled = 55.5 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 54.7 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service centers pared down flat-rolled steel supply in July to 55.5 shipping days of supply, according to preliminary data, down from 62.5 in June’s adjusted data. Inventories represented 2.52 months of supply in July, down from 2.84 in […]
Active U.S and Canadian gas and oil rigs were mixed this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs declined by 3 to 244, with […]
Nonfarm employment rose by 1.7 million in July, but from May through July has made back less than half the losses of March and April. The July jobs report was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday and slightly exceeded analyst’s expectations by adding 1.8 million jobs. May’s job gain was revised up […]
The primary metals sector is looking much worse than manufacturing as a whole in the employment picture. The net change in employed persons was negative 20.8 million in April, positive 2.7 million in May, positive 4.8 million in June and positive 1.8 million in July. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing […]
Mill shipments and supply of sheet products began to turn around in June. This analysis based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import-export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The analysis summarizes total steel supply by product from 2008 through June 2020 and year-on-year changes. The […]
Industry sentiment has taken a pessimistic turn over the past four weeks as COVID-19 continues to outsmart government and health officials, who can’t seem to unite on a strategy that will stem the spread of the coronavirus. Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Indexes had been improving since hitting bottom in early April, but dipped […]
With Congress at an impasse over the next round of federal stimulus spending, roughly two out of three steel buyers polled by Steel Market Update believe it’s time to dial it back and not overreact. The other one-third feel the government should double down on spending to support an economy still struggling with the effects […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel from the mills were at their shortest in the week of April 30 as orders dried up due to the coronavirus. Since then lead times have extended by about half a week, but saw only minor fluctuations in June and July. Currently, lead times for hot […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel are stretching out as demand improves and the mills get busier. Lead times for hot rolled and plate steels have extended past four weeks, while lead times for cold rolled and coated are now longer than six weeks. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer […]
Steel buyers maintain their strong position in price negotiations with steel makers as demand slowly recovers from the coronavirus. The vast majority of those responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week report that the mills are willing to compromise on price to win orders. Nearly all the hot rolled buyers (91 percent) said the […]
Negotiations between buyers and the mills appear to be tightening as steelmakers attempt to firm up prices in response to improving demand. Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week shows significantly more mills holding the line in price talks on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized steel orders compared to earlier in August. About […]
Steel prices declined throughout the month of July, although mills announced price increases in the third week of the month. As of last week, Steel Market Update’s hot rolled price average had declined to $450 per ton. Scrap prices declined from June to July by $18-48 per ton. SMU adjusted its Price Momentum Indicator from Lower […]
The coronavirus has claimed another casualty—the FABTECH trade show. Organizers of the annual event, which showcases the latest and greatest in metal fabricating technology, have cancelled the gathering, which they had hoped to hold in Las Vegas on Nov. 18-20, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. FABTECH is jointly sponsored by SME (formerly the Society […]
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in July, a decline from June but an improvement over recent months. The composite index now stands at 92.6, down from 98.3 in June, and down from 135.8 percent one year prior. “Consumer Confidence declined in July following a large gain in June,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director […]
The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded again in July indicating a third consecutive month of growth for the overall economy, said the Institute for Supply Management in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The July PMI rose 1.6 points from June to register 54.2. “The growth cycle continues for the second straight month after three […]
Global manufacturing finally moved into expansion territory in July, posting 50.3 on the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI, up from 47.9 in June. Production and new orders both rose from contraction, posting PMIs of 51.5 and 50.7, respectively. Thirteen of the 27 countries with manufacturing data available posted readings above 50 in July. International trade […]
Steps to contain the coronavirus pandemic have taken a serious toll on industrial production, manufacturing and durable goods orders in the U.S., but the data shows signs of improvement in June. The health of the manufacturing economy has a direct bearing on the health of the steel industry. The Industrial Production Index The IP index is […]
U.S. production of crude oil decreased in May by 1.99 million barrels per day (b/d), the largest monthly decrease since at least January 1980, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. May marks the sixth consecutive monthly decrease in crude oil production and is the third month since March when the […]
By CRU Economist Anissa Chabib from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook The estimate of U.S. GDP for Q2 2020 shows a decline of 32.9 percent q/q. This is the biggest drop on record, but slightly better than expected. Overall, the surprisingly good data on consumption, sentiment and production released in July is due to the reopening […]
Active U.S and Canadian gas and oil rigs were flat to up this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs remained steady at 251, […]
A spike in business activity was recorded by the Chicago Business Barometer in July. The index rebounded from 12 months of contraction to a reading of 51.9. Increasing demand resulted in a vault of 23.8 points for the new orders index to its highest level since August 2019. Production soared 49.5 percent and back into […]