The final outcome of next week’s presidential election may well boil down to the difference in turnout–in just a handful of counties in three pivotal swing states–among two key demographics: non-college-educated working class males for Trump vs. college-educated suburban women for Biden, predicts Dr. David Schultz, political analyst and professor of political science and legal […]
Orders for durable goods increased for the fifth straight month, up 1.9 percent to $237.1 billion and surpassing expectations. Transportation orders led the increase with a 4.1 percent gain. Automotive orders rose 1.5 percent in September on continued strong sales for SUV’s and light trucks. The commercial airline industry, showing losses through the pandemic, had […]
The number of active U.S and Canadian gas and oil rigs increased yet again this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs increased by […]
Steel associations from around the globe called on steel-producing economies to intensify their work in the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity. Recent increases in steel overcapacity have reversed a three-year declining trend and are of “tremendous concern” during a pandemic where steel demand is severely depressed. The associations urge participating countries in the Global […]
Economic activity grew at a slight to modest pace in early October with inconsistency among sectors, says the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book. Manufacturing activity growth was moderate and the sector added jobs across the country. Demand for new and existing homes kept residential construction robust, but interest in commercial real estate leasing deteriorated. Construction […]
ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) and decarbonization are big concerns for corporate investors in the metals and mining sector, according to a recent survey by CRU. How prepared are global corporations to take on the changes needed to reach zero emissions? China is a leader in decarbonization, announcing in September a target of net zero emissions […]
With early voting underway, record breaking mail-in ballots, and a final voting date a mere 14 days away, it is safe to say that much is riding on the upcoming U.S. presidential election. With two candidates who share little common ground in a bitter election battle, it’s clear that a shift in presidential administration will […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and Economist Anissa Chabib, from CRU’s Steel Monitor It now seems clear that Joe Biden will become U.S. president in January. However, it is likely that the Republicans will maintain their Senate majority. This will significantly limit Biden’s ability to implement his economic policy agenda. In this insight, we […]
Given all the contentious election rhetoric and concerns over the spread of COVID, industry sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, remains surprisingly upbeat. SMU’s Current Sentiment Index saw a 12-point jump since the beginning of October, reaching its highest reading since May 2018. Every two weeks, SMU asks steel buyers how they view their […]
About 72 percent of the service center and OEM executives polled by Steel Market Update this week said they expect the economy in 2021 to be better than 2020. The other 28 percent was evenly split between those who expect more of the same and those who see next year being even worse. No surprise, […]
Lead times for hot rolled steel now average longer than six weeks, and coated steel orders longer than eight weeks, as the mills remain busy in a market adjusting to business in a pandemic. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times indicate the mills have more orders to process and are less […]
By CRU Economist Ippolito Tarabini, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor The dollar has been extremely volatile over the past two quarters. Underlying this is macroeconomic uncertainty linked to the coronavirus pandemic. We expect such uncertainty and volatility to continue into Q4, but trade-weighted dollar and dollar-euro to be range bound around a stable trend. […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) was unchanged m/m in October at 225.6 following large price increases the prior month. Supply in many markets became more available as prices rose, and this helped prevent additional upside pressure. For November, market sentiment is that prices […]
By CRU Analysts Ben Carstein and Lize Wan On Oct. 9, it was reported that Chinese state-owned power plants and steel mills had received verbal notice from China’s customs to stop importing Australian metallurgical and thermal coal with immediate effect. In this article, we review the announcement and its potential implications. Has the Announcement Been […]
Flat Rolled = 45 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 51.3 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service center flat roll inventories fell significantly month on month as shipments increased and mill lead times extended. The SMU service center inventories data for September shows that service centers carried 45 shipping days of supply of flat […]
The U.S. dollar weakened against 10 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last 30 days and against 12 in the last 90 days, which is similar to the declines we reported in our September update. The biggest changes in the last 90 days were in the value of the […]
The U.S. dollar weakened against 15 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last 30 days and against 12 in the last 90 days, which is similar to the declines we reported in our last two updates. The biggest changes in the last 90 days were in the value of […]
Manufacturing activity continued to expand in New York during October, but at a slower pace. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business index slipped seven points to 10.5, decreasing more than expected by analysts. New orders and shipments continued to expand and unfilled orders declined. Inventories were a little leaner and delivery times remained steady. […]
The 2020 pandemic has caused more disruption to the global energy sector than any other event in recent history, says the International Energy Agency in its newest World Energy Outlook. “Whether this upheaval ultimately helps or hinders efforts to accelerate clean energy transitions and reach international energy and climate goals will depend on how governments […]
By CRU Economist Anissa Chabib, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service 2020 has seen an unusual recession that was brought on by a pandemic. To match this, the shape of the recovery is likely to be equally unusual. The U.S. recovery is starting to lose momentum, with more slowing to come in 2021. Large uncertainties lie […]
The number of active U.S and Canadian gas and oil rigs increased again this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs increased by 3 […]
Nearly three out of four (72 percent) of the service center and OEM executives responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire last week said they feel upbeat about their company’s prospects in the fourth quarter. Yet SMU received twice as many negative comments as positive ones. Clearly, even the optimists are concerned about COVID and the […]
The World Trade Organization has adjusted its outlook on world trade volume to a more optimistic view. In its latest report, the WTO forecast global trade volume to fall 9.2 percent in 2020 instead of 12.9 percent as predicted in the April trade forecast. Trade volume will rebound in 2021 to 7.2 percent, but remain […]
Downstream steel product shipments are recovering from the COVID-driven panic that began in April. The Census Bureau provides monthly data on inventories, shipments and new orders for total U.S. manufacturing and for individual industries, one of which is steel products. Every two months, Steel Market Update extracts data from the Census Bureau to provide a […]
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Steel Committee expressed concern over unbalanced steel market conditions in a new report following its 88th Session last week. Steel capacity continues to increase despite a slump in demand caused by the global pandemic. The OECD says global steelmaking capacity is expected to increase to 2,455.8 million metric tons […]
U.S. consumer confidence has suffered drastically from the pandemic, but has shown some positive signs of late. The composite value of consumer confidence in September, reported by The Conference Board, was 101.8, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time since March 2020. The three-month moving average (3MMA) moved up to 93.3. Despite the increase, the […]
Industry sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has seen little change in the past month, but has stabilized at relatively healthy levels. Every two weeks, SMU asks steel buyers how they view their company’s chances for success in the current environment. The Current Sentiment reading was unchanged at +56 this week. Compared with the […]
By CRU Senior Cost Economist Ross Cunningham and CRU Research Analyst Eric Lucking, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service At CRU, we forecast the exchange rates for all the countries where our relevant commodities are produced. Our short and medium-term view is reviewed each quarter. This is anchored to our long-term forecast, which uses a […]
Steel prices continued their upward trajectory in September as demand rose further and mills announced more increases on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized products. Steel Market Update’s hot rolled price averaged $568 per ton in September, an increase of more than $100 month/month, and has since topped the $600 mark. Average prices for prime […]
Global manufacturing continued its road to recovery in September. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to a 25-month high of 52.3 from 51.8 in August, for a third consecutive month of expansion. All of the index components were solidly above the 50 neutral point except for employment, which posted a PMI of 49.5. A […]