Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we asked ChatGPT to analyze all of the responses and highlight four key themes. Here’s what it found:

• Prices are expected to trend lower in the near term due to weak demand, short lead times, and persistent overcapacity in the market.
• Buyers report that demand is either holding steady or slowly declining, with many customers delaying purchases amid economic and political uncertainty.
• The impact of tariffs remains unclear for most. A small number of buyers have seen reshoring activity, but most say it’s too early or only being discussed.
• Despite some isolated pricing benefits, imports are largely viewed as uncompetitive due to long lead times and risk in a falling domestic market.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“I feel prices will continue to move lower due to supply being greater than demand.”

“I expect prices to slowly fall. Demand is OK, but not strong enough to hold up prices in these times of overcapacity, even with all of the tariffs in place.”

“Sharp decline, scrap will continue to correct, demand is soft, and lead times are short.”

“Pricing will go down over the next month and remain stable for the balance of the quarter. Demand is slow and supply is good in the market currently.”

“Overall decline, no real basis for current price.”

“We very clearly peaked early last month (if not a smidge before) and things should get ugly from here until mid-to-late summer. Sub-$800/ton HRC seems like a lock again.”

“Decreasing because capacity utilization is going up and the price of raw materials continues to decrease.”

“There is so much uncertainty right now that it is anybody’s guess. My guess: flat through May and June on HR and plate.”

“Prices will be under pressure over the next two months and trending lower, and then a slight rebound in month three as they get too low.”

“Flat, there is no more demand from customers.”

“Flattening out after the drop, imports are so low that people will need to buy domestic.”

“Plate will remain flat to slightly up.”

“Prices will increase due in part to the tariffs and now the idling of a few plants. If other mills follow, this market will gain steam and the battle starts.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Declining, tariff panic buying is over and we are heading into a summer slowdown.”

“Declining due to tariffs and pricing.”

“Declining, customers are waiting to see if prices will drop more.”

“Declining, most of us are in ‘wait and see’ mode.”

“Declining, futures look optimistic, but current uncertainty has paused demand.”

“Demand is currently stable but expected to decline in the next two months as buyers work through inventory bought ahead.”

“Demand is stable to declining. It certainly seems like the larger the customer, the slower/more cautious they are.”

“Demand is on a slight uptick lately. My customer base has been slow for several months, demand was likely to pick up at some point.”

“Demand is improving but it is due to seasonality and is forecasted to be lower than typical years.”

“Plate demand is stable and projecting improvement.”

“Some slight increases in quoting but not much.”

“Flat, hand to mouth.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Slower, customers are slower to place orders due to economic factors.”

“Slower due to low demand and higher stocks on the ground.”

“Slower, demand is trending lower and customers are hesitant to invest in projects that could be affected by the volatility in D.C.”

“Inventory is moving a bit slower than last year, and we’re keeping less stock right now too.”

“About the same.”

“Relatively flat year over year.”

“Plate inventory is moving at a fair pace.”

“Faster right now, this time last year buying had slowed.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

The majority of buyers responding to this question (60%) were unsure how the policies will impact their business. A third (33%) feel their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs, and only 7% believe that the tariffs are helping their business. Comments included:

“They are hurting our business in that they’ve scared the market into not wanting to spend money anymore. I was very optimistic about ’25 before the tariff craziness.”

“So far, the tariff impacts have been more negative than positive.”

“Steel tariffs initially increased the value of our inventory as pricing moved higher. Broad-based tariffs may not be as inflationary as many think, as businesses are paralyzed by uncertainty.”

“It is still TBD, the tariff policies have not been beneficial thus far, but we hope they will help us in the future.”

“Hurting our US business sales.”

“They won’t help, but any detrimental effect will be far less than is being predicted.”

“The initial price run-up/panic buying was beneficial.”

“Long-term confidence is so low.”

“It’s a double-edged sword but will be great for the long run.”

“In theory, yes, but uncertainty is hurting consistency.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Most buyers responding to this question (55%) say it is too early to say. The remainder were divided, with almost 24% saying they have seen evidence of reshoring and 21% voting they had not. Comments included:

“Way too early to say, it isn’t like a switch that gets easily flipped on and off.”

“Yes, there are examples of customers shifting more production to the US to avoid tariffs or talking about it.”

“Nobody wants to make major investments with instability.”

“We are in the process of reshoring the few things left.”

“More quoting, but nothing moving back yet.”

“Only talk so far…”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“No, too much uncertainty and risk of rules changing.”

“Depends on who you ask. Not attractive enough based on expected correction in the domestic market or vs. the futures market.”

“No, no deals are worth waiting for in a falling market.”

“No, long lead times are risky.”

“Plate imports are not attractive to us at this point in time.”

“Our customers require domestic, so that is all we buy.”

“Import pricing is still OK, but lead times are just too long in comparison to domestics (especially with us forecasting falling pricing here domestically).”

“Depends on the grade. Generally speaking, less so as domestic pricing moderates.”

“Pricewise, yes, but not applicable to most of our customer specs.”

“Pricing is good, but not on a risk-adjusted basis.”

“Yes, but it’s a mixed bag of where it is coming from.”

“Imports are more attractive on lighter gauges (.010 and .012), domestic mills don’t want to produce it.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Nobody is talking about the trickle-down effects on transportation and ultimately fuel. Reductions in imports = reductions in ocean freight demand = reduced activity at ports = reduced demand on trucking. Look at UPS for example = layoffs and closing facilities.”

“Imports should be lessening. How much of an influence will that have on domestic prices?”

“Labor shortages. Bringing manufacturing onshore will immediately face manpower issues, and we can barely hire at the entry level for small staffing requirements.”

“Do we want or need POSCO to build another mill in the USA?”

“Very clearly AHMSA isn’t coming back, but is anyone in the industry buying any of those assets? And is someone like a Nucor going to make a ‘real’ run at Evraz NA?”

“Automotive oversupply dampening the 2H CY25 demand surge that many have been predicting since late summer of last year.”