The Chicago Business Barometer reached its highest level since October, climbing 2.5 point to 65.5. The new reading, when taken with other economic indicators, shows a strong recovery in the second quarter after a lackluster start to the year. This is good news for the flat rolled steel industry in North America. With winter finally […]
The China Ministry of Finance is urging the government to step up spending to support growth in the Chinese economy. The announcement on May 28 follows a call for action by Premier Li Keqiang to increase development projects, which he considers a panacea for China’s economic woes. The notice by the Ministry has three key […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 1.3 in May. The view of the present situation rose by 1.9 as expectations rose by 0.9. These two components are converging, as they always do at this stage of a recovery, after which the view of the present situation will take the lead. On the whole consumer confidence […]
Durable Goods, a measure of the health of the steel industry, saw new orders increase for the fourth consecutive month in April ,continuing the healthy trend that has existed since the recession. Both March and April were above trend, (Figure 1). The three month moving average (3MMA) increased in both March and April, (Figure 2). […]
New home sales bounced back in April after declining for two straight months. New residential sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 in last month, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. April’s rate increased 6.4 percent following a plummet of 10 percent in […]
The Architecture Billings Index remains in negative territory again this month. The ABI, which reflects the nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending, was at 49.6 in April, up slightly from 48.8 last month. A reading below 50 indicates contraction and a reading above 50 indicates an increase in design […]
Chinese steel trade data for April 2014 was released earlier this week, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in April were 83,390,000 metric tons, an increase of 12.8 percent from the previous month and an increase of 24.2 percent from […]
Every month, Steel Market Update calculates whether flat rolled steel distributor’s inventories are in excess or a deficit based on our proprietary formula. The Metal Service Center Institute released April data late last week and, based on our analysis, we believe the “apparent deficit” to be 251,000 tons. This represents an improvement of 101,000 tons […]
Steel Market Update attended SMDI’s “Great Designs in Steel” conference on May 14. This was the 12th year of the popular GDIS conference, and it was well attended with over 1200 auto steel players. The focus of the conference was on auto light weighting through the use of advanced high strength steels (AHSS). There were […]
Metalforming companies are predicting little change in economic conditions in the next three months, according to data from the May 2014 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Incoming orders are also expected to remain relatively unchanged during the period. Current daily shipping levels declined in May compared to three months ago according to those […]
Indicators in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia May 2014 Business Outlook Survey were positive for the third consecutive month indicting manufacturing activity continues to expand in the Third District. The general activity index dropped slightly from 16.6 in April to 15.4 in May. New orders and current shipments decreased by 4 and 9 points, […]
Manufacturing conditions improved significantly in May according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The general business conditions index leapt 18 points to 19.0, up from a weak reading of 1.3 in April and at its highest level in four years. New orders and shipments rose from […]
The Canada Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, March 2014 was just released indicating a 0.4 percent improvement in manufacturing sales in March. Higher sales were seen in food, machinery and plastics & rubber, but were offset by declines in paper, petroleum and coal products. Two thirds of the manufacturing sector had increased sales in March with […]
If we start with the premise that the consumer is almost 70 percent of GDP and that steel consumption is closely correlated with GDP, then consumer behavior and in particular debt is very relevant to our future businesses. Consumer spending is driven by income and both the perception of current debt and willingness to take […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ has been gradually strengthening for 18 months (Figure 1), which favors imports to the US and depresses exports. See explanation at the end of this piece. Table 1 shows the number of currency units that it takes to buy one US $ and the percent change in […]
The April 2014 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months. This summary is based on the responses from 74 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. The […]
Steel buyers in the April Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Steel Buyers Survey are expecting general economic activity to remain the same for the next six months. Higher orders are anticipated during the next three months but current order levels are still weaker than buyers would like. Right now at present production rates and with […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment wildly exceeded expectations in April with a net gain of 288,000 jobs. The February and March total was revised upward by 36,000. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose from 150,000 in February, to 190,000 in March and to 238,000 in April (Figure 1). The […]
The JP Morgan Global PMI was at a six-month low in April but indicated manufacturing remains in the expansion range. At 51.9 the score reflected weaker production and new orders. The PMI was negatively affected by the downturn in production and new business that followed an increase in sales tax in Japan. The US and […]
Mike Rippey, president and CEO of ArcelorMittal USA, has been elected Chairman of the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Rippey will serve as chairman until May 2015, leading advocacy efforts on behalf of AISI and the industry to advance pro-manufacturing polices that will enhance the competitiveness of the North American steel industry. “Mike’s been a strong […]
April turned out to be a month where supply disruptions squeezed the life out of non-repentant steel buyers: flat rolled steel buyers who had run their inventories too lean or who hesitated when U.S. Steel Great Lakes went down, only to be ambushed by steelmaking curtailments at USS Gary Works (and elsewhere) due to iron […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first estimate of real GDP today, (April 30th) for Q1 2014. GDP rose in the fourth quarter by 2.6 percent but declined to 0.1 percent in the first estimate for Q1 2014. Figure 1 shows quarterly results since 1990 with the IMF forecast through 2018. The Q1 […]
Economic data released in April indicated signs of slower growth in the economy. Survey participants, however, continue to be optimistic about business activity during the next three to six months. The Architecture Billings Index fell to 48.8 in April, indicating contraction after hovering just above the neutral point for the last two months. The protracted […]
April is now behind us and it proved to be one interesting month. In looking at the key data we follow on a monthly basis for our readers, SMU Price Momentum Indicator ended the month where it began pointing to higher prices over the near term. SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index ended the month at […]
April was a month of disappointing economic indicators. The Architecture Billings Index turned negative this month after climbing up from a reading of 48.6 in December. The March reading was just 48.8, down from 50.7 in February and 50.4 in January. The American Institute of Architects Architecture Billings Index, an indicator of future construction activity, […]
The following article published April 13, is one that we would normally just provide to our Premium Level members. We thought that those who have Executive level and Monthly membership would be interested in some of the detail we are providing our Premium Level members. If you have questions about Premium Level membership please feel […]
The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) commented on a report released earlier today by the Center for American Progress (CAP) regarding China’s Economic Reform. The AISI stated that CAP’s article indicates that economic reforms announced by Chinese leadership last fall will do nothing to mitigate China’s state-ownership and control over key industrial sectors, including […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their April report on May 1st. The April PMI registered 54.9 percent up from 53.7 percent in March. Any number >50 indicates expansion and this was the eleventh straight month for which this was the case. The three month moving average (3MMA), which had declined for the last three […]
The Chicago Business Barometer increased at its fastest pace in six months to a reading of 63.0 in April from 59.9. The three month moving average registers just below 60 which is an indication of continued recovery for economy. New orders and production led the rise in activity along with improvements in order backlogs and […]
The consumer confidence index decreased by 1.6 in April driven by a decline of 4.2 in the present situation component and an increase of 0.1 in expectations. Job availability was the main drag, a surprising result since economists expect the April net job creation report to be strong when reported by the Bureau of Labor […]