A recovery in non-residential construction is happening said research analyst Timna Tanners, in a report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, but the upturn for the non-residential cycle has taken longer than expected and is “less pronounced” than usual. The last strong cycle for non-residential construction was in 2005-2007, supporting a booming housing market. The […]
Based strictly on our most recent flat rolled steel survey results, Steel Market Update is seeing modest improvements being reported in demand. As a group, our survey respondents have been becoming more optimistic as those reporting demand as in decline has shrunk from 17 percent in early December to 7 percent this past week. At […]
Steel analyst Charles Bradford of Bradford Research spoke at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference this past week. He presented a relatively upbeat analysis of the domestic steel industry. He began by referring to a recent McKinsey and Company report which basically said, “The steel industry has had it, it’s over. The industry doesn’t make […]
Friday’s report has been well publicized as disappointing at 113,000 jobs created especially following the December result at 76,000. Less well appreciated is that the January report made revisions to data on payrolls, the workweek and earnings going back to 2009. Revisions to this data, which is drawn from a survey of employers, showed 369,000 […]
Once a quarter the Federal Reserve surveys the senior loan officers of domestic banks and U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. Questions cover changes in the standards and terms of the banks’ lending and the state of business and household demand for loans. The January survey preamble was as follows: “The January 2014 Senior […]
Residential building permit authorizations in Canada for December declined for the second month, falling 14.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 186,780 units from 216,608 units in November. According to data released by Statistics Canada, multi-family dwelling authorizations led the decline, dropping 21.3 percent while single family dwellings inched down 0.1 percent. Value […]
Steel buyers in the ISM Steel Buyers Survey are expecting an increase in new orders in the next three months. Of those surveyed, 46.7 percent are expecting business to improve in the early months of 2014, up from only 18.2 percent in December. Backlogs in the next three months are expected to increase said 33.3 […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose 10 points to 12.5, indicating acceleration in business activity and reaching its highest level since May 2012. Prices paid and prices received rose in double digits in January with prices paid soaring 21 points to 36.6 indicating higher input costs. The six month outlook is optimistic with orders up […]
The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Manufacturers Index (PMI) registered 51.3 percent in January. Although the index slid 5.2 percentage points from December, it is still an indicator of growth in the manufacturing sector. Most of the indices that make up the PMI fell in January. The new orders index took a significant dive of […]
US automotive sales were mixed in January with automakers blaming winter weather on slipping sales. January is typically a soft month for the industry and will likely not affect forecasts for 16-16.5 million light vehicle sales for 2014. Ford Motor Co. reported sales fell 7.1 percent year-over-year to 155,644 vehicles. General Motors sales plunge 12 […]
The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 52.9 in January, almost unchanged from December’s high of 53.0 and signaling the fourteenth straight month of expansion. Production and new orders continued upward which helped increase employment levels. New export business slowed in January. Sharp discrepancies in growth were seen between developed and emerging markets. The UK, Japan […]
During the month of January Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. Benchmark hot rolled prices averaged $673 per ton ($33.65/cwt) according to the Steel Market Update index. CRU posted their monthly average at $676 per ton ($33.80/cwt). You can find the balance of our weekly and monthly averages […]
A State Department report on The Keystone XL Pipeline concludes that the project will have no significant impact on green house emissions that could affect the climate. The report opens the way for approval by President Obama to allow the pipeline construction to proceed. Approval is required because the proposed pipeline will cross the U.S. […]
The Chicago PMI slipped 1.2 points to 59.6 in January from a revised 60.8 in December. The index, formally known as the Chicago Business Barometer, fell for the third consecutive month but was still firmly above the 50.0 mark that indicates expansion. Employment weakened in January to a reading of 49.2, slipping into contraction for […]
The headline number for Q4 was that GDP expanded by 3.2 percent from Q3, (Q/Q) which was down from the 4.1 percent expansion of Q3 over Q2. A better measure is that 2013 as a whole expanded by 2.74 percent which was the third straight quarter of expansion on a year-over-year basis. This is the […]
Both the expectations and the view of the present situation improved in the mind of consumers in January according to the latest Conference Board analysis. We thought it would be interesting to take a longer term view this month because our past analyses have been somewhat overshadowed by the surging confidence of the late 1990s. […]
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed continued growth in a report released this week. The November 2013, 10-City and 20-City composites increased by 13.8 percent and 13.7 percent year-over-year, respectively. The month-to-month indices decline 1.0 percent in November, the first decrease since November 2012. Nine out of 20 cities in the survey recorded positive returns, […]
Durable goods orders declined in December as did the three month moving average. Not a cause for concern at this point because even the 3MA of this indicator tends to be quite erratic (Figure 1). The year over year growth rate of the 3MMA declined from 7.9 percent in November to 5.1 percent in December. […]
The Eurozone is expected to have mild yet fragile growth throughout 2014 according to the EUROFER Q1-2014 Economic and Steel Market Outlook compiled by the EUROFER Economic Committee (EC). Indicators are pointing towards increased growth for industrial production, an important component for carbon flat rolled steel production in Europe. GDP has been edging up since […]
Global steel production in December was 129.2 million tonnes, an increase of 0.8 percent from November and of 6.3 percent from December 2102 according to the World Steel Association. The decline in the 2nd half of 2013 was much less than occurred in the previous three years. Capacity utilization in December was 74.7 percent. The […]
The Architecture Billings Index declined in December to 48.5 from 49.8 in November, marking the first consecutive monthly decline since May and June of 2012. Chief Economist Kermit Baker was unsure why the demand for architectural services is slowing and attributes some of the decline to anxiety caused by the government shutdown. Baker said “it […]
Existing home sales rose 1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.87 million in December but are 0.6 percent below 2012 levels, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales for all of 2013 were 5.09 million, an increase of 9.1 percent and the strongest year since 2006 when sales reached 6.48 million. […]
The Chinese economy grew by 7.7 percent year-over-year (y/y) in the fourth quarter and by 7.7 percent in 2013 as a whole (Figure 1). The GDP growth rate has been in the range 7.4 percent to 7.9 percent for the last seven quarters. The Chinese economy is performing in line with the government’s goals at […]
Construction on the $5.2 billion Panama Canal expansion continued at a reduced rate on Monday despite threats by contractor consortium Grupo Unidos por El Canal, S.A. (GUPC) that work would be suspended due to lack of payment by the Panama Canal Authority (PCA). The Spanish controlled consortium was hired to build the third set of […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out its series of producer price indexes (PPI), for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Wednesday reported December results. These statistics are a useful way to evaluate any changes in the competitive position of steel against competing materials. See below for the official description […]
Metalforming companies are expecting business conditions to accelerate in the next three months, according to the January 2014 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. In January, 46 percent of participants said they expected economic activity to improve, up from 41 percent in December, while 47 percent said they expect conditions will be unchanged. A leap […]
The Dodge Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning and is published by McGraw Hill Construction. The report leads construction spending by a full year and can be used an indicator for future construction. Any reading above 100, established for year 2000, indicates growth in construction […]
The Federal Reserve publishes a trade weighted index of the value of the US$ against a basket of the currencies of our major trading partners weekly and monthly. The H.10 weekly release contains daily rates of exchange of major foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar. The data are noon buying rates in New York for […]
Net job creation in December was a disappointing 74,000, far below expectations. However November was revised up by 38,000 and the three month moving average of monthly job gains was hardly dented (Figure 1). This monthly result is at odds with most other economic indicators and was probably adversely affected by short term influences such […]
Last week the Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities Act of 2014 was presented in the House of Representatives to renew and strengthen the existing Trade Priorities Act. The American Institute for International Steel supports the bipartisan legislation, saying it is “among the most significant trade bills introduced in Congress.” To read the full press release from the […]