Lessons Learned Over the years, I wrote many articles about my sales experiences. You can find those articles on our website under the “Resources” tab. The sub-tab is entitled “The Truth About Selling Steel.” Recently I was asked to reflect on my 45 years in the steel industry and to provide some insights as to […]
President Biden visited the Middle East last week. He touched down at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland early Sunday morning. Every presidential trip is and must be evaluated by what else is going on. This one was originally billed as routine: to attend a summit meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a group […]
I’ve been writing a lot lately about steel prices going down. It’s hard at a certain point to find a new way to write about the same thing. So let’s talk about logistics, heat waves, and electricity for a little bit. First, I want to draw your attention to our Community Chat earlier this week […]
US imports of corrosion-resistant steel products from five origins will continue to be subject to antidumping and countervailing duties for at least another five years. The US International Trade Commission concluded five-year sunset reviews of the duties on the imports from China, India, Italy, South Korea, and Taiwan, determining that allowing the duties to expire, […]
Hot-rolled coil prices fell again this week and now have a tenuous grip on $900 per ton ($45 per cwt). We remain at the lowest price levels since mid-December 2020 – more than 18 months ago. What’s going on? For starters, we know that the low end of our range might come as surprise to some […]
Mercury Resources CEO Anton Posner will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, July 13, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available free to SMU members. You can register here. We’ll talk about the global supply chain, why it’s still snarled and how […]
I promised there would be more “Final Thoughts” from me before I retire. Today, I am going to write about conversations I had with steel buyers late last week about the market. But first, a couple of key reminders that are important (at least to me): • SMU Steel Summit Conference = 43 days (Aug. […]
The buzz about the war in Ukraine has shifted. For the first three months of the conflict, Ukraine was hailed for a valiant struggle against a strong Russian foe. This valor is part of a larger struggle—the preservation of peace against the threat of violent conquest of weak nations by stronger ones. The stakes could […]
This week’s SMU survey results show a big jump in the number of respondents reporting dwindling demand. When asked how they are seeing demand for their products, 40% of respondents said demand is declining. That was a jump from the 26% reporting falling demand in the prior two surveys and from only 5% early in […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index rose one 1 this week, inching up from the 18-month low seen in late June. Our Future Sentiment Index also recovered a few points from a significant decline in June. It rose 3 points this week. SMU surveys steel buyers every other week and asks how they view their chances of success […]
There has been a broad consensus that wherever the current market bottoms will be higher than pre-pandemic norms. But as our latest survey results indicate, estimates of where that bottom is keep moving lower. About half of respondents to our latest survey think prices will be $800-899 per ton two months from now. In late […]
More respondents to SMU’s latest survey now think hot-rolled coil prices will bottom in the fourth quarter of this year, with a majority anticipating prices to fall into the range of $800-899 per ton ($40-44.95 per cwt) by early September. As of last week, SMU’s average HRC price was $995 per ton. Just a month […]
Steel mill lead times continued to shorten into July for both sheet and plate products, according to our latest market check this week. On average this week, lead times declined by 0.3 weeks compared to late June and are down an average of half a week compared to one month prior. Having gradually declined from […]
Nearly nine out of ten steel executives polled this week reported that mills are willing to talk price to secure an order, according to our latest steel market survey. A high willingness to negotiate has been evident in our market checks since early May and now stands at the highest level since early February 2022. […]
Mercury Resources CEO Anton Posner will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, July 13, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available free to SMU members. You can register here. We’ll talk about the global supply chain, why it’s still snarled and how […]
Is this a case of the summer doldrums or something more serious? That might be a more important question to answer than where the bottom is and when we might hit it. But first let’s start with a recap of where prices landed this week. SMU’s hot-rolled coil price is now at $955 per ton ($47.75 […]
Steel Market Update will be taking time off in observance of Independence Day. We will not publish an issue on Sunday, July 3, and our offices will be closed on Monday, July 4. Our weekly pricing service will not be impacted. We will resume our regular publication schedule and our pricing service on Tuesday, July […]
I’m not gone yet… 61 days to go. First, thank you for all the kind phone calls, notes, posts on LinkedIn, Facebook, etc., regarding the announcement of my upcoming retirement at the end of August. I truly appreciate the comments made, and I look forward to seeing many of you at the 2022 SMU Steel […]
The rally was fun while it lasted, but new capacity delayed in large part because of Covid has arrived or soon will, popular analyst Timna Tanners said. And it will coincide with some demand weakness. The result: “steelmageddon” (aka “sheet storm”) might have been delayed. But it has finally arrived, she said. “Here we are with capacity starting […]
President Joe Biden has increased tariffs on some Russian and Belarussian steel, ferroalloys, and aluminum products to 35%, according to a presidential proclamation signed earlier this week and related documents. That’s a significant increase from already higher duties on some products that went into effect earlier this year when Russia and Belarus were stripped of […]
It’s going to be a long, hot summer. I was thinking we might start to see the “summer doldrums” ahead of the long Independence Day weekend. Instead we’ve gotten a barrage of news on prices, US Steel and labor contract talks. Let’s start with prices. Our average hot-rolled coil price fell below $1,000 per ton […]
Wolfe Research managing director Timna Tanners will be the featured speaker on our next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, June 29, at 11 a.m. ET. Don’t miss it! You can register here. The live webinar is free for all. A recording will be available free only to SMU members. We’ll talk about Tanners’ outlook […]
Most respondents to SMU’s latest survey think that hot-rolled coil prices will be below $1,000 per ton ($50 per cwt) two months from now. That’s a big change from earlier this month, when we did our last full survey and when those who thoughts tags would dip below the $1,000-per-ton threshold this summer were in […]
On July 5th I will celebrate the 45th anniversary of when I first joined the steel industry. I never intended on joining the industry after I left college. It was the love of a woman, and a broken heart that led me to the door of Seymour Waldman and Rolled Steel Corporation in Skokie, Ill., […]
Tariffs on China have been controversial from the beginning. Passions run high, and it’s sometimes hard to find a middle ground on policy matters concerning China. The tariffs at issue are those imposed on Chinese goods under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended. Over the next few months, the Biden administration […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index fell 11 points to an 18-month low last week, the largest survey-to-survey decline since April 2020. Our Future Sentiment Index also declined significantly last week, following another large decline four weeks prior. SMU surveys steel buyers every other week and asks how they view their chances of success […]
I mentioned in my last Final Thoughts that you should keep your eyes open for potential catalysts for higher prices even amid all the signs that tags probably have nowhere to go but lower. It turned out we found one hiding in plain sight. It’s contract talk season in the US, with labor pacts between […]
Steel Market Update’s latest market check revealed that steel mill lead times continue to inch down for sheet and plate products as they move closer to historical norms. On average, lead times declined by 0.2 weeks compared to our early June figures and are down 0.4 weeks compared to one month ago. Lead times over […]
Approximately 84% of steel buyers report that mills are willing to talk price to secure an order, according to executives polled in our latest steel market survey. The rate of willingness to negotiate has remained over 50% in each of our market checks since early May and is now at the highest level since early […]
I’m running out of ways to write about steel prices going down because I’ve been doing it since late April. There are the usual reasons plus a few new ones. There had been hopes that China would come out of Covid lockdowns, that Beijing would roll out stimulus, and that Asian HRC prices would set […]