Over the last few weeks, the price of zinc has risen to over $1.41 per pound on the London Metal Exchange, and I thought it was time for an update on a series of articles I’ve written on the actual metallic cost of coating steel with zinc. To do the calculation, I use a spreadsheet […]
No one was surprised when major U.S. steel mills announced a $30 per ton price hike on flat rolled and plate this week. The price hikes were widely expected. But a majority (58 percent) of respondents to SMU’s latest flat roll market trends questionnaire will be surprised if the higher prices stick. Some predict the […]
Despite the ongoing delay in Washington, six of 10 respondents to SMU’s latest flat roll market trends questionnaire believe the Trump administration will eventually put new restrictions on foreign steel imports based on Section 232 national security concerns. Even more, 74 percent, believe the slowdown in the Section 232 decision is opening the door to […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Service Center Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast provided last month showed that the deficit in inventories being held by flat rolled distributors would shrink. We have worked with the MSCI carbon flat rolled shipment and inventory data and our model indicates the deficit did indeed shrink and is very close to […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) is releasing our SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index for mid-August. The Index measures how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful both in the current market environment, as well as three to six months into the future. Overall, our Indexes remains optimistic. However, […]
Flat rolled lead times, the amount of time it takes for the steel mills to produce an order if placed today, have flattened out and are essentially unchanged over the past few months, according to data collected by Steel Market Update from manufacturers and steel service centers earlier this week. On Monday, Steel Market Update […]
Steel buyers and sellers reported mills slightly more open to steel price discussions, based on responses this week from Steel Market Update’s flat rolled market trends questionnaire, possibly reflecting the seasonal slowdown in sales activity. What makes the results collected on mills willingness to negotiate pricing especially interesting is the domestic steel mills began announcing […]
Even though the Trump administration has postponed a decision on Section 232, the possibility of trade action that will further restrict steel imports is still influencing the market, according to comments from service centers, manufacturers and trading companies gathered in last week’s Steel Market Update Flat Roll Market Trends questionnaire. Two-thirds of all steel buyers […]
Flat rolled steel buyers are fairly optimistic about their chances for success in the current market, though the various metrics Steel Market Update uses to gauge future demand are sending mixed signals. One likely cause is the uncertainty injected into the market by the Trump administration’s now-delayed Section 232 investigation. According to the latest SMU […]
The lack of a committed market direction by service centers, coupled with strong imports and inventories that SMU believes are balanced to slightly bloated at the distributors, has prompted us to move our SMU Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. In an interesting development, twice as many manufacturing companies reported that flat rolled steel […]
Responses to two questions in Steel Market Update’s latest flat roll market trends analysis elicited a clear consensus from our participants: The Trump administration’s delay in acting on Section 232 could open the door to more foreign steel imports. But the government should not necessarily penalize foreign countries just because they export a high rate […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report for July was released on Friday with a gain in jobs that exceeded analysts’ expectations. The May result was revised down by 7,000 and June was revised up by 9,000 positions. Using a three-month moving average (3MMA), the July result was 195,000 jobs, which was pulled down […]
Despite getting pressure to adjust our SMU Price Momentum Indicator due to uncertainty associated with the Section 232 investigation and the lack of a recommendation to date, along with small signs of a need by one or two steel mills for orders on galvanized, SMU is continuing to reference flat rolled steel prices as moving […]
The following article is from responses left to a question we had in our early August flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire. We inquired about how buyers and sellers of steel felt regarding steel prices with Section 232 somewhat sidelined for awhile. Results were mixed. Nearly half of the respondents to Steel Market Update’s latest […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continues to represent buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel as being optimistic about their companies’ ability to be successful in both the current market environment as well as three to six months into the future. As a single data point collected by Steel Market Update as part of […]
Flat rolled lead times have seen little change in the past month. Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts an analysis of the flat rolled sheet and plate markets based on responses to a comprehensive questionnaire. When looking at lead times, the analysis is restricted to responses from manufacturers and distributors, who accounted for 84 […]
Over the course of this week, Steel Market Update has been canvassing active participants in the flat rolled steel markets as we try to capture any changes in market trends. The more than 100 respondents we had this week provided us a snapshot on how steel mills are handling price negotiations. As a group, respondents […]
In the Key Indicators data released in July, both the present situation and trends have recovered from what now appears to have been a temporary downward blip in June. Trends lead the present situation by about four months. An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those […]
The steel market is waiting anxiously to see if the Trump administration places additional tariffs or quotas on steel imports. Opponents of the proposed Section 232 trade action say it will be bad for the U.S. economy, in particular U.S. manufacturers that will have to pay more for raw materials, making them less competitive versus […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts a detailed analysis of the flat rolled steel market. We invite 650 individuals representing approximately 625 different companies to participate by taking an online questionnaire. The questions cover a wide variety of topics that are germane to their unique industry segment. The two main groups asked to […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has seen some erosion since peaking at +77 around March 1. However, buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be optimistic about the potential for their company to be successful in both the existing market and three to six months into the future. Buyers and sellers of […]
Flat rolled lead times remain flat compared to what we reported for early July, as well as one month ago. Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts an analysis of the flat rolled sheet and plate markets. This is done through the use of a comprehensive questionnaire focused on manufacturing companies and service centers, which […]
Despite the risks associated with Section 232 and the belief that flat rolled steel prices will rise prior to and immediately after the announcement of a Section 232 decision, mills appear somewhat more open to price discussions. Based on the responses received this week from our flat rolled market trends questionnaire, buyers and sellers of […]
After a careful analysis of the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) carbon flat rolled shipment and inventories data, and then applying that data to our proprietary Apparent Excess/Deficit inventories model, we have determined that distributor inventories improved during the month of June. At the end of May, based on the MSCI data, SMU calculates that […]
Is today’s contentious and acrimonious political climate having a negative effect on American business? Is the win-at-any-cost attitude in politics, so evident in everyday news reports, eroding ethical business practices in steel and other industries? Is it OK to bend the truth or to make up “fake news” to damage your competition? The desire to […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the second consecutive week, following a 10-week streak of being in negative territory. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous […]
Flat roll lead times have remained within a narrow range over the past six months, according to the manufacturing companies and steel service centers responding to our flat rolled market trends analysis last week. Hot rolled lead times now average 4.41 weeks, which is the same as what we reported in mid-June, but still one-half […]
We saw steel mill lead times as being essentially the same to slightly higher than what we measured at the time of the last price increase announcements (week of June 5th). When the announcements were made, most steel mills were actively trying to collect increases. We saw the bottom of our price range rise, and […]
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has come off historical highs set during the late first and early second quarters 2017. However, buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be optimistic about the potential for their company to be successful in both the existing market as well as three to six months into the […]
With the threat of a Section 232 decision in favor of the domestic steel mills looming over the market, Steel Market Update (SMU) has decided to take our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Higher. It is our opinion conditions are in place to push flat rolled steel prices even higher from their current levels. […]