On Sunday we produced an article that was perhaps confusing to some of our readers. The article entitled: “Possible Strike Does Not Worry Buyers & Sellers of Steel” had an error in the graphic produced. Our survey results has 76 percent of those responding saying they are Not concerned about the possibility of a strike […]
At this point everyone wants to know if demand is growing and are inventories at a point where buyers will need to go into the market and begin buying again. The combination of growing demand and inventories that need to be replenished will be what drives flat rolled steel prices higher. Steel Market Update looks […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continues to be modestly optimistic although less so than what the index was reporting one year ago. The trend for the proprietary index has been to move sideways in what might be considered a not too hot, not too cold marketplace. SMU looks at how buyers and […]
Domestic mill lead times are one of the keys followed by Steel Market Update as we evaluate steel prices and price momentum. A market where we see extending lead times tends to allow for the collection of higher steel prices throughout the industry (steel mills and distributors). When we see lead times collapsing we tend […]
Last week, Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. A portion of that change was due to the domestic steel mills continuing to be willing to negotiate flat rolled steel pricing. In this week’s flat rolled steel market analysis, those responding to our questionnaire reported all but Galvalume as being […]
Last month, Steel Market Update forecast that June steel service center shipments of flat rolled steel would total 2,430,000 tons. The actual number, according to MSCI data, came in at 2,339,000 tons or 91,000 tons fewer than our forecast. The daily shipment rate for June, which is more accurate than keeping tabs on total month […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive for the ninth consecutive week, following a 39 week negative streak prior. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the […]
On Friday, Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. Now why did we go and do that? We have been stuck in a very tight trading range on most flat rolled steels since late April of this year. Benchmark hot rolled, which is used by most in the […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive (indicating higher prices) for the eighth consecutive week. This follows a 39 week negative streak (falling prices). MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil […]
Last week Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our early July flat rolled steel market analysis (survey). We invited just under 600 companies to participate in our questionnaire which covered such items as Sentiment, pricing trends, purchasing trends, inventories, lead times, negotiations and more. We placed two questions early during the survey process where we ask […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been measuring “Sentiment” or, how buyers and sellers feel about their company’s ability to be successful both in the current market environment as well as three to six months into the future. We concluded our analysis earlier today and have determined that those involved in the flat rolled steel industry […]
Even with a new price increase announcement out of US Steel (+$40) lead times remain flat compared to what we saw during the middle of June. All of the products, hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume lead times are shorter than what we reported at the beginning of July 2014. Hot rolled lead times […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) continues to collect data from manufacturing and distributors suggesting that the domestic steel mills are willing to negotiate flat rolled steel pricing for new spot orders. The weakest product is hot rolled steel where 76 percent of our respondents reported the mills as willing to negotiate steel prices. Prior to this […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive (indicating higher prices) for the seventh consecutive week. This follows a 39 week negative streak (falling prices). MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive (indicating higher prices) for the sixth consecutive week. This follows a 39 week negative streak (falling prices). MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil […]
A steel buyer is required to make buying decisions – often worth millions of dollars – on current market conditions and expectations of future market conditions. How does anyone do that well in an environment of uncertainty and constant change? One way to get an advantage is to be a “Learning Machine”. Here’s what Charlie […]
Before the ink had dried on last month’s service center flat rolled inventory “Apparent Excess/Deficit” report and forecast we knew our forecast was being a bit too optimistic. This was pointed out to us in an email from a large service center who has been following our Apparent Excess since the beginning. “I read with […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the United States was positive for the fifth consecutive week indicating that prices have been rising. This follows a 39 week negative streak (falling prices). MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. […]
SMU Sentiment Index Jumps Since our last flat rolled steel market analysis and evaluation of how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful both three to six months from now (Future) as well as in today’s economic environment (Current), we have had a second price increase and a dumping […]
Steel Market Update reported in the Tuesday issue of our newsletter that negotiations have started between the USW (United Steelworkers Union) and ArcelorMittal. The issue was raised at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch dinner where SMU publisher, John Packard, spoke last night. We have been anticipating that the posturing by the union and AM, […]
Lead times moved out slightly on three of the four flat rolled products: hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized. The only product which essentially remained the same was Galvalume. Hot rolled lead times averaged 4 weeks, according to the results of this week’s flat rolled steel market analysis (survey). This is up from 3.66 weeks […]
As with lead times, our survey respondents are reporting steel mills as slowly regressing and moving away from negotiating flat rolled steel prices. Although we are seeing movement, the percentage of respondents reporting the mills as still willing to negotiate hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume continues to be more than 50 percent. Hot […]
The steel industry has been preparing for a trade suit for well over a year. Those who buy steel, manufacturers, fabricators and steel service centers have had ample time to prepare for what many had been predicting as inevitable, a light flat rolled coated steel anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) suit. As we speak […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the United States was positive for the fourth consecutive week, following a 39 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous […]
Steel Market Update was analyzing data from our last flat rolled market survey just as the domestic mills began announcing price increases. We thought our readers might be interested in looking at the data with us and then guess as to whether the new price increases will “stick” or falter over time. In our opinion, […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the United States was positive for the third consecutive week, following a 39 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous […]
Lead times have not shot out since the price increase announcements were made in early May. Hot rolled lead times were reported as being 3.5 weeks at the beginning of May and one month later HRC lead times averaged 3.66 weeks according to the results of our most recent flat rolled steel survey. Lead times […]
Our respondents to last week’s flat rolled steel market survey continue to report prices as being negotiable, maybe not to the degree we have been seeing since the beginning of the year, but negotiable non-the-less. However, we need to remember that the vast majority of our responses were made prior to the anti-dumping trade suit […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our flat rolled steel analysis over the past four days. Based on the responses collected from those taking our survey we found a continuation of the optimistic trend that we have seen for a number of years now but, when compared to 2nd Quarter 2014 our index has been disappointing […]