GDP contraction in the second quarter of 2020 was the highest ever recorded at negative 31.4 percent. Growth in the third quarter was also the highest ever at positive 33.1 percent. GDP in Q3 was 2.9 percent below the first quarter result. On Oct. 29, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook In this Global Economic Outlook, we reflect on some of the most important risks to the forecast we discussed with clients during LME week. Three issues were foremost: risks to the recovery from the second Covid-19 wave, policy stimulus […]
The COVID-19 pandemic is causing widespread damage to the nonresidential construction industry, says a new survey from the Associated General Contractors of America. More firms are reporting project delays or cancellations and construction employment levels are falling across U.S. metro areas. “The survey results make it clear that the months-long pandemic is undermining demand for […]
Residential housing construction remains in high demand as consumers take advantage of favorable interest rates. Sales of new single-family homes in September slipped 3.5 percent from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 959,000, but were 32 percent higher than a year ago. Sales in the Northeast fell 28.9 percent from September and sales […]
We had a good conference call with HARDI wholesalers this morning. The dealers who service the mechanical contractors with galvanized sheet and coils continue to be busy. They are surprised at the steepness of the cost curve, and they are beginning to be wary of paying too high a price. One reason they are wary is […]
North Star BlueScope continues to shine for Australian parent company BlueScope Steel. North Star continues to ship at full capacity in the first half of FY 2021 driven by the rebound in the U.S. auto industry. Steel spreads have improved in the half due to higher HRC pricing, although earnings are expected to be somewhat […]
Economic activity grew at a slight to modest pace in early October with inconsistency among sectors, says the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book. Manufacturing activity growth was moderate and the sector added jobs across the country. Demand for new and existing homes kept residential construction robust, but interest in commercial real estate leasing deteriorated. Construction […]
Nine days to go… I don’t know about you but my cell phone is being lit up with political calls/texts from both parties – including states I don’t live in. November 4th can’t get here fast enough… Steel Dynamics reported that their mills (all products) operated at 85 percent and their sheet mills achieved a […]
Nucor reported better than expected results for the third quarter of 2020. The company’s bar and structural mills led earnings, benefiting from a good nonresidential construction market. Joist and deck orders, quotes and backlogs are up year-over year with strong demand from nonresidential, including data and distribution center construction, company executives told investors and analysts […]
Revenues from construction and toll processing exceeded expectations in the third quarter, offsetting some of the weakness in aerospace and energy, reported Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. in its quarterly conference call today. Touting a record gross profit margin of 32.4 percent, executives of the industry’s largest service center organization told analysts and investors they […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
Schnitzer Steel, a metals recycler and steel manufacturer, maintained operations throughout the pandemic, navigating though low scrap supply and falling demand and emerging optimistic about the year ahead. “These past seven months have been challenging for all of us,” said Chairman and CEO Tamara Lundgren of Schnitzer Steel. “We have been confronted with cascading crises, […]
Steel Dynamics’ CEO Mark Millett was upbeat on the prospects for steel demand in the fourth quarter and beyond. “You can clearly see what is happening in the marketplace through one’s order book—ours is in pretty good shape,” said Millett. Flat rolled demand and momentum remain strong, inventories are at historical lows, imports continue to […]
Housing starts continued to grow in September supported by strong interest in single-family home construction. Housing starts climbed 1.9 percent from August and 11.1 percent from a year ago to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,415,000, reported the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. Single-family starts leapt 8.5 […]
About 72 percent of the service center and OEM executives polled by Steel Market Update this week said they expect the economy in 2021 to be better than 2020. The other 28 percent was evenly split between those who expect more of the same and those who see next year being even worse. No surprise, […]
Steel Market Update’s service center inventories data for September shows supplies on hand at very low levels. At the same time, the percentage of inventory on order is at very high levels. That suggests, say some observers, that some service centers may have waited too long to replenish their inventories, then did some panic buying […]
Lead times for hot rolled steel now average longer than six weeks, and coated steel orders longer than eight weeks, as the mills remain busy in a market adjusting to business in a pandemic. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times indicate the mills have more orders to process and are less […]
Resilient construction demand enabled Commercial Metals Company to weather the COVID-19 crisis without disruption to productivity. CMC’s fourth-quarter FY 2020 earnings totaled $67.8 million, a 6.5 percent increase from the third quarter. Consolidated net sales totaled $1.4 billion, with sequential increases in both the North America and Europe segments. Net sales for the year reached […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Helen O’Cleary The U.S. economy saw an impressive overall rebound through Q3, following severe Covid-19 disruption in Q2. We estimate that U.S. industrial production contracted 7.5% y/y in Q3, following a decline of 14.4% y/y in Q2. However, the momentum of the recovery is slowing as fiscal stimulus and the effects […]
By CRU Multi-Commodity Analysts Zanna Aleksahhina and Will Young Over the summer and into Q3 2020 commodity prices staged a remarkable recovery from Q2 lows and in October many prices are comfortably above where they started the year. Given that the major economies are still struggling to control the spread of Covid-19, underlying demand is […]
By CRU Economist Anissa Chabib, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service 2020 has seen an unusual recession that was brought on by a pandemic. To match this, the shape of the recovery is likely to be equally unusual. The U.S. recovery is starting to lose momentum, with more slowing to come in 2021. Large uncertainties lie […]
Nearly three out of four (72 percent) of the service center and OEM executives responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire last week said they feel upbeat about their company’s prospects in the fourth quarter. Yet SMU received twice as many negative comments as positive ones. Clearly, even the optimists are concerned about COVID and the […]
The Cleveland-Cliffs/ArcelorMittal merger may throw a curve at the Steelmageddon theory, said Bank of America steel analyst Timna Tanners during Wednesday’s Steel Market Update Community Chat Webinar. The Cliffs/AM combination includes two mills that are more than 100 years old and another that is 50 years old. A move by Cliffs to permanently close some older blast […]
Nonresidential construction projects in planning rose in September. The Dodge Momentum Index gained 3.7 percent, climbing to 130.8 last month. Planning for commercial projects jumped 3.9 percent, while institutional projects moved 3.2 percent higher. The index has increased at a slow and steady pace since its low point in June, gaining 2.2 percent in the […]
The tightness of the flat rolled steel market, and when that tightness might dissipate, are topics being actively discussed within the industry. Lead times are already into January at some mills, slabs are limited to the converters who were buying from Brazil, maintenance schedules are pushing lead times, and demand is up whether from rising […]
By CRU China CEO John Johnson and CRU Senior Consultant Ashley Wang from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor On Sept. 22, in a statement to the United Nations General Assembly, President Xi Jinping announced to world leaders that China “aims to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060”. The part of this statement concerning CO2 was brief […]
By CRU Principal Analyst James Campbell from CRU’s Long Products Monitor Global long product prices increased in many markets this month as strengthening demand combined with higher costs and for some products in particular. Strength was not uniform however; prices were weaker in Southeast Asia and China, the latter due to weaker sentiment following lower […]
Swedish initiative HYBRIT has received $2.5 million from the Swedish Energy Agency for a comprehensive study of steelmaking using hydrogen for the direct-reduction of iron ore. HYBRIT is a collaboration of steelmaker SSAB, iron ore producer LKAB, and electricity producer Vattenfall. HYBRIT seeks to replace coking coal used in ore-based steel making with hydrogen to create steel with […]
Industry sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has seen little change in the past month, but has stabilized at relatively healthy levels. Every two weeks, SMU asks steel buyers how they view their company’s chances for success in the current environment. The Current Sentiment reading was unchanged at +56 this week. Compared with the […]
Steel prices continued their upward trajectory in September as demand rose further and mills announced more increases on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized products. Steel Market Update’s hot rolled price averaged $568 per ton in September, an increase of more than $100 month/month, and has since topped the $600 mark. Average prices for prime […]