Census Bureau data confirms a slowdown in steel product shipments and new orders in 2019. Steel industry trade association data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) are most widely used to assess the state of the industry. In addition, the Census Bureau provides monthly data on […]
The rate of job creation in September slowed to 136,000, but the details of job cuts and job openings continue to be historically very positive, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Net job creation in September declined to 136,000 from an upwardly revised 168,000 in […]
The American Institute of Architect’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) posted a score of 47.2 for August indicating a decline in planning activity for nonresidential construction. The national score for new design contracts was also below the neutral point of 50 at 47.9, a rare occurrence for the two scores. Having both indexes in contraction means […]
Primetals Technologies, a leading engineering, plant building and lifecycle services partner for the metals industry, will be solely owned by Mitsubishi-Hitachi Metals Machinery by early next year. MHMM and Siemens AG, joint owners of Primetals, have agreed that MHMM will acquire Siemens’ 49 percent stake in the company for an undisclosed sum. Closing of the […]
September saw big downturns on both steel price momentum and steel buyers sentiment that aren’t readily evident in the monthly data (below) from Steel Market Update. SMU’s Price Momentum Index was pointing downward for the entire month of September. The benchmark price for hot rolled steel averaged $565 per ton for the month, down nearly […]
The September Manufacturing ISM Report on Business showed further decline of the manufacturing sector. ISM’s PMI edged down 1.3 points to 47.8 from the August reading of 49.1. “This is the lowest reading since June 2009, the last month of the Great Recession, when the index registered 46.3 percent,” said Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of […]
The global manufacturing sector remains in contraction but is beginning to stabilize, says the latest report from J.P. Morgan and IHS Markit. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose for a second month in a row reaching 49.7, although still below the 50 neutral point. “The global manufacturing PMI sent a message of stability in […]
Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board declined more than expected in September. Month on month, the composite value of the index declined from 134.2 to 125.1. Calculated as a three-month moving average (3MMA) to smooth the monthly volatility, the measure of consumer confidence actually increased slightly from 131.4 to 131.7. This is why […]
Both the September and October reports on consumer confidence from The Conference Board suggest a weakening of people’s expectations. Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board declined more than expected in September and experienced another small decline in October. This is quite a volatile indicator and therefore we smooth the data with a […]
The third estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019 at 2.01 percent was little changed from the first estimate. U.S. GDP is reported quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). There are three estimates. The first is released about 25 days after the end of the quarter and the second and third are […]
The global market share of U.S. scrap exports continues to increase, according to this quarterly analysis of data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) in the UK. We believe that to improve our understanding of the gyrations of the domestic scrap market, we should be aware of where the U.S. stands as a […]
From June through August, global steel production increased by 3.1 percent, but excluding China, growth declined by 2.1 percent with the result that China’s share reached another all-time high of 55.9 percent. We have a new perspective this month on global capacity. About a year ago, the World Steel Association stopped reporting global capacity utilization […]
The Chicago Business Barometer dropped 3.3 points to 47.1 in September after seeing a brief rebound from contraction in August. The decline in the index released by ISM and MNI Indicators was lower than the 50+ reading expected by many economists. The September Chicago PMI, as the index is also known, marked the third contraction […]
Orders for durable goods rose 0.2 percent to $250.7 billion in August, but most of the increase was military related. Orders for defense-related goods jumped 15 percent. Orders minus defense decreased 0.6 percent, reported the U.S. Census Bureau. Core capital goods, non-defense orders minus aircraft and an indicator of future investment, fell 0.2 percent. Economists […]
Metalforming firms are expecting a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, according to the September 2019 Precision Metalforming Association Business Conditions Report. Thirty percent of participants in the monthly survey expect a decline in economic activity in the next three months, up from 27 percent in August. Those who expect no change in activity jumped to […]
Thyssenkrupp AG is sacking its CEO of 14 months after directors determined Guido Kerkhoff is unable to reverse declining profits at the German conglomerate. Supervisory Board Chairman Martina Merz will be interim CEO for the next 12 months while a permanent replacement is sought. Kerkhoff succeeded Heinrich Hiesinger in July 2018. In May 2019, the […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The Fed cut interest rates at the conclusion of its meeting on Sept. 18, 2019, lowering the Federal Funds rate by 25bp to a range of 1.75 to 2.00 percent. This reduction in the Fed Funds rate was widely anticipated by markets and follows a 25bp rate cut in […]
“Fragile and uncertain” is how the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) describes the current global economy. The OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook shows economic growth slowing as escalating trade conflicts impact confidence and investment and increase downside risks in financial markets. In May of 2018, the OECD was predicting global growth of 4 […]
The growth of manufacturing in the U.S. is slowing, and on a single-month basis the ISM index became negative in August. This does not bode well for the balance of 2019 or for 2020, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of 11 manufacturing indicators. This report summarizes 11 data streams that describe the state of […]
The composite producer price index of all commodities has been relatively stable in 2019, but tinware products are becoming very uncompetitive against aluminum. This report is an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data performed by staff of Steel Market Update and is intended to provide subscribers with a view of the competitive position of […]
The U.S. dollar has weakened against 11 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last month and against eight in the last three months. In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index surprised economists by slipping to 2.0 on the general business index, a three point decline from August. The new orders index fell three points to 3.5, but remained above zero indicating only slight growth. The shipments index declined four points to 5.8 for it lowest level in nearly three years. […]
The rate of job creation in August slowed to 130,000 and was helped by the addition of 25,000 temporary Census workers, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Net job creation in August declined to 130,000 from a downwardly revised 159,000 in July. June was revised […]
Job creation in August was disappointing even after being boosted by the addition of thousands of temporary Census workers. In August, 3,000 jobs were created in manufacturing industries and 14,000 in construction activities. A reported 96,000 jobs were created in the private sector and government gained 34,000 positions. The federal government employment result was swelled […]
Despite slight upward momentum in steel pricing in August, steel buyers’ sentiment languished in the +40s on SMU’s index. This tepid optimism likely reflects widespread concerns in the market about steel demand in the second half and the staying power of steel prices following the recent increases announced by the mills. The average price for […]
The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence is quite a volatile indicator, therefore we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in August was 135.1 with a three-month moving average (3MMA) of 131.7. June’s result of 124.3 now appears to be an outlier […]
World steel production is down this year. Between May and July, global steel production declined by 4.1 percent. For the year, steel output is down by 0.9 percent, excluding China which continues to overproduce. Capacity is calculated to be 2.4 billion metric tons and capacity utilization in July was 79.0 percent, according to the latest […]
The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 49.1 percent in August from 51.2 percent in July indicating a contraction in business activity and the lowest level since the 48.0 percent reading in January 2016. “Comments from the panel reflect a notable decrease in business confidence,” said Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management […]
The global manufacturing sector downturn continued to worsen in August. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted a 49.5 for its fourth month of contraction. More than half of the nations surveyed by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit had PMI readings below the neutral 50 mark last month, with Germany and the Czech Republic declining at the […]
The metalforming sector continues to express uncertainty about near-term business conditions, according to the August 2019 Precision Metalforming Association Business Conditions Report. The August report shows that 27 percent of participants anticipate an improvement in economic activity during the next three months (an increase from just 16 percent in July), 46 percent expect no change […]