After a shake in confidence last month, metalforming companies are once again optimistic that business conditions will improve in the next three months, albeit only slightly. Metal companies surveyed in the March 2014 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report, however, are anticipating new orders to fall slightly during that same period. Current average daily […]
Haixen Steel, a mill in Shanxi province of China, suspended operations on five blast furnaces after defaulting on a bank loans due on March 7. Haixen is not a top tier Chinese steel mill nor is the default and shutdown a surprise to most. It is a mill heavy in debt and on the Chinese […]
Canada was the highest volume exporter of all carbon and low alloy steel products to the US in both the last 12 and 3 month periods through January with 4,956,812 and 1,172,616 tons respectively (Figure 1). Mexico came in 4th in 12 months after Brazil and Korea but was bumped into 5th place by Russia […]
Housing starts and new home prices both improved in early 2014. Canadian new home prices rose 0.3 percent in January following a 0.1 percent drop in December. The increase in the New Housing Price Index (NHPI) was the largest since May 2012. Prices soared 1.3 percent in the Calgary metropolitan area due to higher material […]
In the last three months the US dollar has strengthened against fourteen of the currencies of the major sixteen steel trading nations. In the last one month, that trend has reversed and eleven of the steel trading currencies have strengthened against the US dollar. Table 1 shows the number of currency units that it takes […]
Key Banc recently published its report entitled “The Industrial Cycle: Monthly Update on Key End Markets.” The following is a summary of findings from report that SMU readers may find interesting. Key Banc says the outlook for industrial activity remains positive for 2014. After a dismal performance in January affected by weather conditions, activity rebounded […]
An ousted president, deadly violence, military insurgence and a possible secession—the crisis in the Ukraine has been moving at an alarming speed in the last several weeks. As the Ukraine struggles to create a new government, economic sanctions are increasingly being considered by the global powers to sway preferred outcomes. The US and the EU […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment beat the consensus expectation of a 150,000 gain in February by showing a net gain of 175,000 jobs. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the net gain has slowed for three consecutive months but the growth trajectory is still on track for a full […]
Steel buyers report a softening in new orders in the latest Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Steel Buyer’s Survey. Those who expect orders to increase over the next three months dropped to 27.3 from 42.9 percent in January, 18 percent expect orders to decline, and 54.5 percent expect levels to remain the same. Current incoming […]
Manufacturing activity expanded more than expected in February after a weather related drop last month. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI registered 53.2 percent, up from 51.3 percent in January. A reading above 50 indicates the manufacturing economy is growing, a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The new orders index rose 3.3 points […]
Global manufacturing activity showed steady improvement during February. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in February, inching up from 53.0 in January. Manufacturing output remained steady in February while new orders grew at a faster rate. Employment levels were higher in much of the world with staffing cuts reported in China, Russia and […]
Steel Market Update received the following steel market analysis from one of our member companies based on the Academy Awards. Sometimes it is better to look at the flat rolled steel market with a sense of humor so here goes: Current Market Perspective (inspired by the Academy Awards): The US Steel market continues to be […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index for general business conditions fell 8 points to 4.5 in the February 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey after rising 10 points in January. New orders were flat for the month, declining 11 points to -0.2. Manufacturers remained optimistic about business conditions for the next six months. The future general business […]
The early sentiment has scrap prices dropping during the month of March but not as strong or as wide-spread as forecast a couple of weeks ago. Flows into the scrap yards have been impacted by the severe weather in the North and this is tempering the drop which, according to at least one SMU scrap […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index averaged +39.5 which was down from the +43.5 reported during the month of January. Our SMU Price Momentum Indicator went from Neutral to Lower as we adjusted our indicator to reflect the dropping steel prices which we expect to continue over the next 30 days. Benchmark hot […]
The Chicago Business Barometer indicated firm growth in February while remaining essentially unchanged at 59.8 in February compared to 59.6 in January, according to MNI Indicators. Production, new orders, and backlogs expanded at a slower rate offsetting double digit growth in employment. Prices paid dropped in February following price increases by suppliers in January. Inventories […]
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December showed home prices edging down by 0.1 percent for the second consecutive month in the 20-City Composite Home Price Index. Home prices year-over-year, however, rose 11.3 percent. “The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index ended its best year since 2005,” said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. The official statement […]
The consumer confidence index declined by 1.3 in February driven by an increase of 4.4 in the present situation component and a decline of 5.4 in consumer expectations. The three month moving average (3MMA) of both the present view and expectations increased which caused the composite to rise from 76.3 to 78.3 (Figure 1). The […]
Buyers and sellers have mixed emotions and opinions regarding the current steel market. Most companies which Steel Market Update has spoken or traded emails with over the past few weeks are telling us their order books are “OK” and in line with what they saw last year at this time. Most companies believe their demand […]
Orders for durable goods decreased $2.2 billion or 1.0 percent in January to $225 billion according to the US Census Bureau’s advance report. Orders have been down three of the last four months and followed a 5.3 percent decline in December. The three month moving average fell for the second consecutive month, dropping 1.23 percent […]
Sales of new single family homes rose 9.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 468,000 in January from a revised December rate of 427,000, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development. The year-over-year increase of home sales was 2.2 percent above the January […]
Chinese imports of iron ore in January were 86,830,000 metric tons (MT), an increase of 18.3 percent from the previous month and an increase of 32.5 percent from January 2012. Total iron ore imports for 2013 were adjusted to 819,410,000 MT. January imports of steel scrap were 160,000 MT, down 48.4 percent from December and […]
The Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count is a weekly census of the number of drilling rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the United States and Canada. Rigs are considered active from the time they break ground until the time they reach their target depth and may be establishing […]
The Architecture Billings Index, an indicator of future construction activity, rose in January after contracting in previous consecutive months. The ABI reflects a nine to twelve month lead time between architectural billings and construction spending. The ABI press release from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) is reprinted in entirety below. For more information on […]
General business conditions fell 8 points in the February 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey after rising 10 points in January, but remained positive at 4.5. New orders were flat for the month, declining 11 points to -0.2. The shipment index dropped 13 points to 2.1. The inventory index fell to -5.0 indicating a slight drop […]
The Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) reported metalforming companies surveyed in the February 2014 Business Conditions Report are expecting weaker business conditions during the next three months. Those who expect economic activity to improve during the period slipped from 46 percent in January to 32 percent in February. PMA members anticipate a modest decline in incoming orders […]
Winter weather has taken its toll on builder confidence in the single-family home market says the National Association of Homebuilders. Builders also expressed concern about labor shortage and scarcity of available lots. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 10 points to 46, with all three of the major components of the index falling in […]
In the month since this analysis was last published, the US dollar has strengthened against 12 of the 16 nations that we consider to be major players in either the iron ore market or in steel product trade or both. Most notably, the Russian Rouble and the South African Rand have declined by 4.7 percent […]
The European Union was formed in 1992 with the signing of the Maastricht Treaty on European Union (TEU). In an effort to instill fiscal discipline and encourage trade and free flow of labor and capital without giving up sovereignty, member countries would participate in a monetary union while remaining fiscally independent. The caveat was countries […]