Friedman Industries continues to see benefits of its April acquisition of Plateplus Inc., but sharply declining steel prices significantly suppressed earnings. The Longview, Texas-based steel processor and manufacturer said the fiscal 2023 second quarter ended Sept. 30, 2022 was a “period of considerable margin compression” driven by sharply declining hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices. Friedman reported […]
Wolfe Research managing director Timna Tanners joined SMU for an Community Chat on Wednesday to talk about her forecast for 2023, including the calm before the sheet storm. Tanners is bullish about the first half next year. She forecast HRC prices would average $775 per ton ($38.75 per cwt) in Q1 2023, dip to $750 per ton […]
Cleveland-Cliffs is in the process of restarting the No. 7 blast furnace at its Indiana Harbor steel mill in East Chicago, Ind. “All good with the re-start procedure that is ongoing,” a company spokeswoman said in an email to Steel Market Update on Friday, Dec. 2. The Cleveland-based steelmaker said that there had been a […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis, which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious, and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received a BA in economics with a minor in finance from Princeton […]
Is the market at a bottom or not? Cleveland-Cliffs and US Steel have each announced price hikes of $60 per ton ($3 per cwt). And we’re told other mills might follow. If this isn’t a bottom, it sure looks like domestic mills are trying to create one with a floor of ~$600 per ton for […]
Welded pipe imports from four nations will continue to face antidumping (AD) duties after determinations from US trade agencies. Circular Welded Carbon-Quality Steel Pipe from Oman, Pakistan, and UAE — Sunset Review Results Circular welded carbon-quality steel pipe from Oman, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates will continue to be subject to AD duties for at […]
Steel Market Update’s (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index surged 13 points last week and now stands at a five-month high. Our Future Buyers Sentiment Index also increased, up three points to one of the highest readings since May. Buyers Sentiment had peaked earlier this year, then trended downward through mid-November, always remaining in positive territory. SMU’s Buyers Sentiment […]
Wolfe Research managing director Timna Tanners will be the featured speaker on our SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Nov. 30, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available free to SMU members. It’s not too late to register here. We’ll talk about Tanners’ outlook for steel prices, raw materials costs, […]
Steel Market Update will be taking time off in observance of Thanksgiving. We will not publish an issue on Thursday, Nov. 24, or Sunday, Nov. 27. Our offices will be closed on Thursday and Friday, Nov. 24–25. Premium members will receive our Survey Results earlier than usual: We plan to publish the data on Wednesday […]
Rumors of a holiday-season price increase continue to ping pong around the market. Will mills announce one on Wednesday ahead of Thanksgiving, in early/mid-December, or not until early next year? Let’s leave the timing aside for a moment and consider why those rumors have been so persistent. On the spot market side, we’ve seen some […]
Steel mill lead times were mixed this week compared to our previous market check, with production times slightly shrinking for three products and marginally extending for two. Hot rolled, cold rolled, and galvanized lead times are now at or near multi-year lows. Lead times are down by an average of 0.2 weeks compared to one […]
A very high percentage of sheet buyers continue to report that mills are willing to talk price to secure an order, as they have since May, with more than nine out of ten reporting that this week. Negotiations on plate products are not as common, with slightly more than half of buyers reporting they are […]
Hot-rolled coil lead times have been bouncing around four weeks on average since July. HRC prices over that time have fallen from $955 per ton ($47.75 per cwt) to $630 per ton as of last week, a 34% decline. The question now is whether we bottom out around $600 per ton. Will sheet prices and lead […]
The Biden administration has, from its early days, presented a “worker-centered” trade policy. Katherine Tai, the US Trade Representative (USTR), has used that term consistently. What does that mean exactly? The “worker-centered” narrative includes, as is common in most policy debates, addressing the disparate impact on minorities and the disadvantaged. When a factory closes, those […]
The Tampa Steel Conference – which SMU does every February together with the Port of Tampa Bay – offers the tantalizing prospect for those of us in the Midwest of getting out of the cold to network outdoors in Florida. We’ll again hold the conference at the Tampa Marriot Water Street hotel. We’ve got a solid agenda […]
Wolfe Research managing director Timna Tanners will be the featured speaker on our SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Nov. 30, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available free to SMU members. You can register here. We’ll talk about Tanners’ outlook for steel prices, raw materials costs, as well […]
Monthly Key Market Indicators (KMI) have steadily improved since reaching their most recent low in July, though steel buyer sentiment recently tumbled to a 26-month low, according to the latest analysis by Steel Market Update. Positive and neutral indicators have increased, while negatives have eased. Despite some recent improvements, present headwinds are still notable. The […]
Is this the week that prices bottomed, or do we still have room to fall? If you think ~$600 per ton ($30 cwt) is the bottom, you might point to some positive big-picture developments: strong energy prices, moves by China to prop up its property sector, or the weakening of the US dollar. You might […]
Flat Rolled = 52.5 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 47.3 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat rolled supply in October was steady month on month, according to Steel Market Update data. At the end of October, service centers had 52.5 shipping days of flat-rolled steel on hand on an adjusted […]
I wish I could offer you some hope about steel prices getting better. But at the moment, the thing that strikes me most is that $600 per ton ($30 per cwt) for hot-rolled coil (HRC) sure looks like the “new” $600 per ton. That’s a joke of course. I make it in remembrance of all that […]
The Department of Commerce on Thursday published its decision that Russia was again a non-market economy (NME) in antidumping cases. The move will change fundamentally the way antidumping duties will be calculated for imports from that country. All antidumping investigations, reviews, and sunset reviews will incorporate this change in all cases over the next several […]
The flat rolled steel market can be a challenging environment to manage risk. Much like a boxer, you must engage in various strategies to protect yourself. When the hits start coming, fancy footwork may not be enough. Steel Market Update (SMU) caught up with David Feldstein, owner of Rock Trading Advisors, and got some insight […]
Steel Market Update’s (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index remained roughly steady this week, as it has seen since mid-September. Our Future Buyers Sentiment Index inched down three points but remains in line with levels recorded in late September. Buyers Sentiment peaked earlier this year. It has trended downward since May but nonetheless remains in positive […]
Steel prices continue to slide, and apparently so does sentiment. Based on SMU’s latest check of the market, sheet prices once again fell across the board, grinding lower and nearing levels some never expected to see again. Speculation that hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices will be at or near the $600-per-ton mark takes center stage with […]
The US Department of Commerce said on Thursday that it would no longer consider Russia a market economy in antidumping cases. The move could allow for higher duties on Russian imports in trade cases going forward. An analysis done by third parties for Commerce found that Russia’s government has had considerable involvement in its economy, […]
Steel buyers continue to hold the upper hand in price negotiations with mills — a position they have enjoyed for nearly six months. A very high percentage of sheet buyers continue to report that mills are willing to talk price to secure an order. Negotiations on plate products are not as common, with slightly more […]
Steel mill lead times were steady to down this week compared to our previous market check. Production times shrunk for four products tracked by SMU and slightly extended for one. Lead times retracted by an average of 0.2 weeks compared to two weeks ago and are half a week shorter than levels one month ago. […]
The news of the day, outside of politics (I hear we have an election), is that US Steel and the United Steelworkers (USW) finally struck a deal. That’s good news if you were hoping to take an unknown factor out of the market. It’s bad news if you were hoping for higher prices on a […]
The US Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration (ITA) is updating import duties on hot-rolled steel flat products from Turkey and South Korea. The agency just released preliminary results in reviews of the countervailing duties on Turkish product and antidumping duties on South Korean product, according to Federal Register filings. In the initial results of […]
Nucor on Thursday confirmed its plate prices would remain unchanged with the opening of its December order book. Though the market was anxiously awaiting the Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker’s announcement, few were surprised by it. Why? It’s not clear that a price decrease at this stage in the fourth quarter would generate buying. And it would devalue […]