By CRU Economist Ippolito Tarabini, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor The dollar has been extremely volatile over the past two quarters. Underlying this is macroeconomic uncertainty linked to the coronavirus pandemic. We expect such uncertainty and volatility to continue into Q4, but trade-weighted dollar and dollar-euro to be range bound around a stable trend. […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) was unchanged m/m in October at 225.6 following large price increases the prior month. Supply in many markets became more available as prices rose, and this helped prevent additional upside pressure. For November, market sentiment is that prices […]
By CRU Analysts Ben Carstein and Lize Wan On Oct. 9, it was reported that Chinese state-owned power plants and steel mills had received verbal notice from China’s customs to stop importing Australian metallurgical and thermal coal with immediate effect. In this article, we review the announcement and its potential implications. Has the Announcement Been […]
By CRU Analyst Estelle Tran, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service The spike in sheet purchasing activity pushed prices up $200 /s.ton over the last two months and mill lead times for HR coil over six weeks. Steel Market Update, which is owned by CRU, also reported CR and HDG coil lead times in the […]
The U.S. dollar weakened against 10 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last 30 days and against 12 in the last 90 days, which is similar to the declines we reported in our September update. The biggest changes in the last 90 days were in the value of the […]
The U.S. dollar weakened against 15 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last 30 days and against 12 in the last 90 days, which is similar to the declines we reported in our last two updates. The biggest changes in the last 90 days were in the value of […]
Manufacturing activity continued to expand in New York during October, but at a slower pace. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business index slipped seven points to 10.5, decreasing more than expected by analysts. New orders and shipments continued to expand and unfilled orders declined. Inventories were a little leaner and delivery times remained steady. […]
Canadian steel producer Stelco has completed the upgrade and reline of the blast furnace at Lake Erie Works and has commenced production. The upgrade will improve quality and increase metal production by up to 300,000 net tons per year and reduce costs to produce steel coils by CAD $30 ($22.84 U.S.) per ton. “We are […]
By CRU Economist Anissa Chabib, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service 2020 has seen an unusual recession that was brought on by a pandemic. To match this, the shape of the recovery is likely to be equally unusual. The U.S. recovery is starting to lose momentum, with more slowing to come in 2021. Large uncertainties lie […]
The number of active U.S and Canadian gas and oil rigs increased again this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs increased by 3 […]
This week’s foreign vs domestic hot rolled steel price comparison shows that U.S-producers are moving closer to losing their price advantage over foreign imports, according to SMU and CRU indices released this week. The price differentials between domestic HRC compared to foreign imports had widened through mid-August to reach record highs, but have since declined […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Hot rolled spot prices have risen sharply in the last month in step with mill lead times that have moved […]
The World Trade Organization has adjusted its outlook on world trade volume to a more optimistic view. In its latest report, the WTO forecast global trade volume to fall 9.2 percent in 2020 instead of 12.9 percent as predicted in the April trade forecast. Trade volume will rebound in 2021 to 7.2 percent, but remain […]
Downstream steel product shipments are recovering from the COVID-driven panic that began in April. The Census Bureau provides monthly data on inventories, shipments and new orders for total U.S. manufacturing and for individual industries, one of which is steel products. Every two months, Steel Market Update extracts data from the Census Bureau to provide a […]
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Steel Committee expressed concern over unbalanced steel market conditions in a new report following its 88th Session last week. Steel capacity continues to increase despite a slump in demand caused by the global pandemic. The OECD says global steelmaking capacity is expected to increase to 2,455.8 million metric tons […]
U.S. consumer confidence has suffered drastically from the pandemic, but has shown some positive signs of late. The composite value of consumer confidence in September, reported by The Conference Board, was 101.8, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time since March 2020. The three-month moving average (3MMA) moved up to 93.3. Despite the increase, the […]
By CRU Senior Cost Economist Ross Cunningham and CRU Research Analyst Eric Lucking, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service At CRU, we forecast the exchange rates for all the countries where our relevant commodities are produced. Our short and medium-term view is reviewed each quarter. This is anchored to our long-term forecast, which uses a […]
Steel prices continued their upward trajectory in September as demand rose further and mills announced more increases on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized products. Steel Market Update’s hot rolled price averaged $568 per ton in September, an increase of more than $100 month/month, and has since topped the $600 mark. Average prices for prime […]
Global manufacturing continued its road to recovery in September. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to a 25-month high of 52.3 from 51.8 in August, for a third consecutive month of expansion. All of the index components were solidly above the 50 neutral point except for employment, which posted a PMI of 49.5. A […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
The manufacturing sector grew again in September, indicating a fifth month of expansion for the economy, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The September PMI registered 55.4 percent, down 0.6 percent from August. “Manufacturing performed well in the month with demand, consumption and inputs registering growth indicative of a normal expansion cycle,” […]
Business activity in the Chicago area surged in September, expanding for the third month in a row. The MNI Chicago Business Barometer soared 11.2 points to 62.4, its highest level since December 2018. Business sentiment jumped sharply to 55.2, its best performance since Q1 2019. Production jumped 16 points, nearing a two-year high, while demand […]
From the CRU weekly Steel Monitor: Most Chinese product prices were either unchanged or marginally lower this week, except for HR coil, that has fallen RMB220 /t ($32 /t) over three weeks. Although this keeps Chinese prices at a relatively high level, it has created caution and may now indicate a limit to how far rallies in […]
The following comments were made by an importer of European steel as SMU was updated on their view of the industries they service in the United States. SMU thought the comments provide an interesting perspective for our readers: “Auto has been coming back strong. I don’t see the impact on the domestic mills, but I […]
The number of active U.S and Canadian gas and oil rigs increased this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs increased by 6 to […]
Orders for durable goods rose for the fourth consecutive month in August but at a much slower pace than July, said the Department of Commerce. New orders for manufactured goods expected to last at least three years increased 0.4 percent to $232.8 billion in August, a sharp deceleration from the 11.7 percent surge in July. The August […]
This week’s comparison of foreign and domestic hot rolled prices shows that the large price advantage held by U.S-producers over foreign imports is rapidly loosing steam, according to the latest SMU and CRU indices. The price differentials between domestic HRC compared to foreign imports had widened over the last few months to reach record highs […]
Chicago-based service center and steel processor UPG Enterprises LLC, announced the acquisition of Lex Holding Co. The acquisition will expand UPG’s distribution of flat rolled steel products in the Midwest markets and further diversify their product line and logistical capabilities. The deal includes Lexington Steel Corp., a full-line distributor of flat rolled steel products based in Chicago […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Helen O’Cleary and found in CRU’s Zinc Monitor US steel mills have reportedly been taking more refined zinc over the past few weeks and the outlook for Q4 is looking slightly more positive according to market contacts. There have been suggestions that the uptick in spot demand from mills could be […]
The Architecture Billings Index remained stuck at a score of 40 for the third consecutive month in August, indicating a prolonged decline in billing activity at architecture firms. The new project inquiries index provided a glimmer of optimism, rising for the first time since February to a positive score of 51.5. The value of new […]