This is a tough time to be in the forecasting business, especially when it comes to steel. You might have a battle-tested model based on the latest macroeconomic data, prices, inventories, and lead times. The catch: Whatever a forecast might showing now could be overshadowed by events next month. Namely, labor negotiations between the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and automakers General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis.
Steel Market Update’s Demand Index has now been contracting territory for the better part of the past 3-plus months, according to the latest survey data.
The spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and galvanized coil base prices widened over the last month as hot rolled prices declined faster than prices for galvanized product.
The summer cycle has brought more focus around the uncertainty of where HR prices are headed. Spot indexes continue to bleed lower despite price hikes from sheet mills. Market talk is of still lower prices as the gap grows between the slow-moving index versus expectations for HR future prices declines. (The index likely reflects smaller, […]
Movements in lead times were again mixed in SMU’s market check this week, with most products mostly sideways compared to two weeks ago.
The spread between US and offshore hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices has narrowed to its lowest level since mid-February, when domestic prices were still trending upwards, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis.
The percentage of respondents saying mills were willing to negotiate price rose on all sheet products and plate this week, according to SMU's most recent survey data.
Sheet prices slipped for the third consecutive week on continued discounts from certain mills for larger buyers.
We weren’t supposed to see hot-rolled coil prices dip below $800 per ton ($40 per cwt) anytime soon.
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices fell for a second consecutive week as mills appear to have given up holding the line on $900 per ton ($45 per cwt) and amid discounting into the high $700s per ton.
We weren’t supposed to see hot-rolled coil prices dip below $800 per ton ($40 per cwt) anytime soon. Or at least that seemed to be the consensus in mid-June after mills rolled out a round of $50-per-ton price hikes, with a second round rumored to be in the works. That second round of price hikes […]
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices fell for a second consecutive week as mills appear to have given up holding the line on $900 per ton ($45 per cwt) and amid discounting into the high $700s per ton. SMU’s average HRC price now stands at $830 per ton, down $40 per ton from a week ago and marking […]
I’ll dive into the latest sheet market trends in a moment. But first some big news: We’re less than a month away from the start of SMU’s Steel Summit in Atlanta! Nearly 1,100 people were registered to attend when I last checked on Friday. The pace of registrations has picked up, so we’ll probably be […]
I’ll dive into the latest sheet market trends in a moment. But first some big news: We’re less than a month away from the start of SMU’s Steel Summit in Atlanta! Nearly 1,100 people were registered to attend when I last checked on Friday. The pace of registrations has picked up, so we’ll probably be […]
We’re just a month out from Steel Summit, so I decided to go back and check on how things look now compared to ~30 days ahead of the event last year. For starters, approximately ~1,100 people are registered to attend the event on Aug. 21-23 in Atlanta. That puts us on track to meet or […]
In the past two months, the US Midwest Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) futures market has experienced significant fluctuations. The initial decline in prices led to destocking and low inventory levels. However, recent price increase announcements by mills halted the downward trend and even reversed it temporarily. The futures curve reflected short-term optimism but indicated that the […]
In the past two months, the US Midwest Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) futures market has experienced significant fluctuations. The initial decline in prices led to destocking and low inventory levels. However, recent price increase announcements by mills halted the downward trend and even reversed it temporarily.
The US hot-rolled coil (HRC) premium over offshore product declined this past week, as prices abroad moved up while domestic tags declined, according to SMU's latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis.
We’re just a month out from Steel Summit, so I decided to go back and check on how things look now compared to ~30 days ahead of the event last year. For starters, approximately ~1,100 people are registered to attend the event on Aug. 21-23 in Atlanta. That puts us on track to meet or […]
The US hot-rolled coil (HRC) premium over offshore product declined this past week, as prices abroad moved up while domestic tags declined, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. HRC tags stateside declined $20 per ton vs. the prior week, slipping to their lowest level since mid-February. Domestic prices are now down $290 […]
The hot end of Steel Dynamics Inc.’s (SDI) Sinton, Texas, sheet mill is expected to be back up and running in the next few days.
Hot-rolled coil prices remain rangebound between roughly $850-900 per ton ($42.50-45 per cwt), according to our latest market check. You could say that’s not news. Our HRC index settled at $870 per ton on Tuesday afternoon. A week-over-week decline of $20 per ton from $890 last week might be little more than noise. You’d want to […]
Sheet prices slipped by $20-25 per ton as hot-rolled coil (HRC) failed to break through the $900 per ton threshold some market participants had predicted it would. SMU’s average hot-rolled coil (HRC) price stands at $870 per ton ($43.50 per cwt), down $20 per ton from a week ago. Numbers at or around that figure […]
Hot-rolled coil prices remain rangebound between roughly $850-900 per ton ($42.50-45 per cwt), according to our latest market check. You could say that’s not news. Our HRC index settled at $870 per ton on Tuesday afternoon. A week-over-week decline of $20 per ton from $890 last week might be little more than noise. You’d want to […]
Sheet prices slipped by $20-25 per ton as hot-rolled coil (HRC) failed to break through the $900 per ton threshold some market participants had predicted it would.
By CRU senior analyst, Ryan McKinley Oversupply in most markets of the world is easing. The key trend we are following (and expecting to occur) is further output cuts in China, which should keep many markets more stable than they have been recently. In China, sheet oversupply will not ease in the coming week given […]
The spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap prices continued to narrow in July, according to Steel Market Update data. SMU’s average HRC price rose this week, while busheling scrap tags fell. Our HRC average price rose $10 per net ton week over week to $890 per ton ($44.50 per cwt) as of Tuesday, July 11. Busheling tags, […]
Steel prices continued to erode in June, a trend that began halfway through April. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices ended June at $875 per ton (43.75 per cwt) on average, falling by $115 per ton throughout the month. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for sheet products remained shifted to Neutral halfway through June, after turning Lower […]
The US hot-rolled coil (HRC) premium over offshore product has changed little over the past few weeks, as both prices abroad and stateside have inched up in tandem recently, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. HRC tags stateside are still down $280 per ton since peaking at $1,160 per ton back in […]
I’d halfway expected to see hot-rolled coil prices come down this week. A few of you made the case for price declines. The logic: softer demand meeting increased domestic supply and higher import volumes. Some of you also noted that lead times, while not bad, were hardly strong enough to support another round of price […]