Steel market chatter this week

If you just want the highlights, here is an AI-generated summary capturing four key themes from the responses:

• Tariff confusion clouds the market: Buyers voiced frustration over unclear trade policy, describing it as “TACO junk” and “chaos” that’s stalling decisions.
• Demand remains soft and inventories are slow-moving: Most see weak or flat demand with sluggish inventory turnover, though a few report signs of pent-up activity.
• Price expectations are stable to slightly lower: Buyers expect prices to hold or drift down, with tariffs and supply constraints keeping a floor under the market.
• Imports are less attractive: Tariffs, freight, and longer lead times are discouraging import purchases except in niche cases.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“I expect prices to stay within maybe a $75 range of where they currently are. Despite lackluster demand, there are too many tariffs to allow prices in the USA to fall too far.”

“I think prices will be firm over the next three months. Potentially, they are a bit too high right now, but with increased tariffs, I would expect that there is not much downside.”

“Steady, capacity will be taken offline after August due to scheduled maintenance.”

“Stable with some downturn, except for tariff impacts.”

“Discrete plate prices will remain flat until the end of Q3 then climb.”

“Flat, lack of sufficient demand.”

“We are expecting the slide to continue. I heard rumors of a potential increase coming this month at the mill level, but I think that would be insane.”

“I expect prices to trend lower until rebounding in the fourth quarter due to plenty of supply for current demand.”

“Sideways to up. I am hearing that building companies are starting projects and many other industries are picking up, or pent-up demand is building as the uncertainty continues.”

“Prices will increase due to lower inventories, steady demand/growth, and less supply (imports down due to less bookings now due to tariffs).”

“I feel this market is starting to push upward. Tariffs will determine the direction.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Declining due to weak demand and tariff impacts on the construction and auto industries.”

“Demand is currently slowed due to the summer doldrums and the increased buying after the second round of 232 tariffs.”

“Demand has been declining the last couple of months.”

“Demand is pretty darn weak. Just about every sector we talk to and/or deal with is very bearish.”

“Demand is weak or flat, depends on the sector. The general construction market is flat, others might be up, like data center/warehouse or commercial stadiums per various reports.”

“Plate demand currently is soft to stable.”

“A very weak stable.”

“Stable, uncertainty prevails.”

“Demand is improving, but not by much. I think it has more to do with demand being stagnant and buyers peeling back for the summer slowdown.”

“Improving, but pent-up demand is growing.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Slower, customers are pushing out orders or decreasing them.”

“Slower due to less demand.”

“Slower, slowing economy.”

“Slower, but not by much.”

“Plate inventory is moving slower at this time.”

“Inventory is moving about the same, which is scary, as we’re carrying so much less.”

“A little better, we all have resigned ourselves to ‘uncertainty is the new normal.’”

“Faster, we are in the construction markets.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Half of respondents were unsure how tariffs are impacting their business. Most of the remainder (43%) said the tariffs are not helping, while just 7% believe their business is benefiting from them.

Comments included:

“Tariffs are hurting US business from Canadian operations.”

“I think they’ve created so much unease that no one is out there spending money.”

“They’re terrible and hurting my business, will drive our economy into a recession.”

“Many of our customers are growing from the opportunities and reshoring.”

“I tend to lean toward the tariffs not helping business more than helping.”

“The uncertainty they are causing in the market is hurting demand for our products. We still hope they will provide a long-term benefit to our business.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Not anymore. Nobody knows what’s going on with tariffs. Create chaos and conquer…”

“I think everyone is just a little concerned about the TACO junk and the overall ‘What the heck is going on?’ with regard to tariffs and trade deals.”

“Plate imports, with tariffs and transportation added, are not attractive whatsoever.”

“It seems safe to say that tariffs and longer lead times are making imports less attractive.”

“Imports are attractive on some specialty products and not on others.”

“Imports are always more attractively priced, even with tariffs.”

“More so, but only in certain cases (certain grades).”

“Pricing into Canada is still good but may change with tariff introduction.”

“Only on lighter gauge materials.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Is demand outpacing expectations?”

“Nice that we finally have some closure on the Evraz NA deal, good for those employees. I wonder if we’ll start seeing more and more M&A activity further downstream.”

“Cliffs closing Riverdale, impact to high carbon and alloy flat roll market.”

“European pricing impact due to carbon emission tax increases.”

“Need Fed to lower interest rates to jump start things.”

“How most of the drama and whining about tariffs is from traders and importers that have tons of money and lots of time to complain.”

“Why is it good that President Trump is putting all these tariffs on foreign countries? What are the tariffs, conditions, etc. that Trump is trying to counteract to level the playing field?”