Manufacturing indicators were mixed in the September Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The Bank suggests that responses may have been influenced by “volatility in the stock market and international news reports.” The index for current manufacturing activity unexpectedly dropped from 8.3 in August to -6.0. It was the first […]
The September 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Index declined for the second consecutive month, indicating a slowing in business activity for New York manufacturers. The general business conditions index declined from -14.9 to -14.7. Prior to August,the index has been hovering around the zero point for four months indicating that business activity has been subdued. Both […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last Friday reported results through August. We run this analysis every three or four months to give readers […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 173,000 jobs were added in August which was slightly below Moody’s Analytics expectation. The number will likely be revised upward in subsequent months. June and July payrolls were revised higher by a combined 44,000. The unemployment rate, calculated from a different […]
Labor Day came and went without labor negotiations coming to a head for US Steel or ArcelorMittal. Although the parties were committed to staying at the bargaining table over the weekend, no agreement was made and, fortunately, no lockouts or strikes either. Allegheny Technology (ATI) is entering its fourth week of lockout for its 2,200 […]
Earlier this week, Steel Market Update hosted our 5th Steel Summit Conference. We had a record crowd in attendance tipping the scales at close to 300 people. We had 26 speakers over the course of the two day conference (including Peter Wright and John Packard of SMU) and, from our perspective, the longer term forecast […]
The USW plans to meet with Allegheny Technologies Inc. and a federal mediator in Pittsburgh on Sept. 11 and 12. ATI locked out its 2200 steelworkers August 15 after contract talks broke down. The USW claims the lockout was unlawful and has been ”pursuing all legal remedies that are available.” The union in communication with […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their August report on September 1st. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the three month moving average (3MMA) of the index gained 0.67 points in June and 0.40 points in July. August gave back 0.57 […]
The Chicago Business Barometer stayed fairly steady in August, falling from 54.7 in July to 54.4. Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, “It was pretty much steady as she goes in August with orders and output just about holding on to July‘s gains. While the slowdown earlier in the year looks temporary, we‘re […]
The article below is normally reserved for our Premium members, we felt it would be good to share with our Executive members also. We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. […]
The USW said it is committed to moving forward in contract negotiations at US Steel and is continuing to meet regularly with US Steel representatives in Pittsburgh. The current contract agreement will expire on Sept 1 and the parties are still wrangling over health care, hours, overtime and contracting out. The USW wrote in its […]
The Durable Goods report from the US Census Bureau showed a 2 percent increase month to month of new orders in July. New orders data was stronger than expected and the second month of gain after an advance in June of 4.1 percent. July’s increase was led by orders for automotive and military goods. The […]
AWMI, August 26, 2015: Mary A. Wardle, Sales Manager, Western Region, for Steelscape has been named Member of the Year by the Association of Women in the Metal Industries (AWMI), the highest honor awarded by the organization that supports and encourages leadership roles of women in the metal industries. Ms. Wardle was nominated by her […]
The USW union is reaching back into the annuals of steel strife to remind their members of the fight that was waged in order to receive some of the things that USS and ArcelorMittal want to change. Empty rhetoric or a sign of problems to come? A recent USW update referenced the song Gary, Indiana […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
Consumer confidence took a big hit in July, and in out last report we wrote, “There is no multi month trend in recent data therefore we see no reason to be concerned about the July result which is slightly higher than the 25 year average.” We were not surprised by the huge bounce back in […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of July 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in July were 86,100,000 metric tons, an increase of 14.9 percent from the previous month and an increase of 4.3 percent […]
Not much new activity to report for metalforming companies. The August 2015 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report showed members expect little change in business conditions for the next three months. Overall economic activity is expected to be slightly better with 26 percent predicting an increase in activity, up from 18 percent in July. […]
The Architecture Billings Index for July slipped slightly to 54.7 from 55.7 in June but still reflects strong and continuing demand for design services for nonresidential construction. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings for design services. The new projects inquiry index was 63.7 in July, up from 63.4 the previous month. “On […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. This month we have revised our data back through 1994 to account for massive revisions to the G17 data. Incidentally this is why many analysts question government data out of China who never revise their historical information. The US sometimes revises data […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
The following article was written by Peter Wright, consultant and instructor associated with Steel Market Update. Mr. Wright writes a more detailed article for our Premium level clients that spells out details of currency changes for all of the steel trading nations. He noticed that the Chinese government is intervening in the value of their […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of August […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 215,000 jobs were added in July which was slightly less than consensus expectations. May and June were revised up by a total of 14,000. Monthly job gains have averaged 246,500 over the past seven months. In the 12 months through July, […]
ATI has threatened a potential lockout over contract negotiations. Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI) offered the USW Bargaining Committee its “last, best and final” proposal last Friday. According to the USW the proposal was accompanied by a request from ATI that “the Union accept this proposal and recommend it for ratification by 3:00 p.m. on Monday, […]
China made a surprise devaluation of its currency today to bolster its faltering economy. The 2 percent devaluation of the yuan will make imports to China more expensive but will make exports more attractive to international traders. The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) issued a statement today concerning today’s currency move by the Chinese […]
The Institute for Supply Management’s Steel Buyers’ Forum conducts a monthly survey regarding current steel supplies/products and future projections. Please note that the July 2015 survey appears sparse with only 11 respondents. When asked at current shipping levels, tons on hand would cover how many months, 27.3 percent said 0-1 month compared to 30.8 percent […]
ATI Flat Rolled Products presented its “Last, Best and Final” contract proposal to the USW negotiating committee on Friday. The more than 2,000 union represented employees at ATI have been working under terms of a contract that expired June 30, 2015. ATI management told employees that changes must be made to adapt to a changing […]
The Q3 2015 February Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on August 3rd. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 71 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches […]