The Durable Goods report from the US Census Bureau showed a 2 percent increase month to month of new orders in July. New orders data was stronger than expected and the second month of gain after an advance in June of 4.1 percent. July’s increase was led by orders for automotive and military goods. The […]
AWMI, August 26, 2015: Mary A. Wardle, Sales Manager, Western Region, for Steelscape has been named Member of the Year by the Association of Women in the Metal Industries (AWMI), the highest honor awarded by the organization that supports and encourages leadership roles of women in the metal industries. Ms. Wardle was nominated by her […]
The USW union is reaching back into the annuals of steel strife to remind their members of the fight that was waged in order to receive some of the things that USS and ArcelorMittal want to change. Empty rhetoric or a sign of problems to come? A recent USW update referenced the song Gary, Indiana […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
Consumer confidence took a big hit in July, and in out last report we wrote, “There is no multi month trend in recent data therefore we see no reason to be concerned about the July result which is slightly higher than the 25 year average.” We were not surprised by the huge bounce back in […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of July 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in July were 86,100,000 metric tons, an increase of 14.9 percent from the previous month and an increase of 4.3 percent […]
Not much new activity to report for metalforming companies. The August 2015 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report showed members expect little change in business conditions for the next three months. Overall economic activity is expected to be slightly better with 26 percent predicting an increase in activity, up from 18 percent in July. […]
The Architecture Billings Index for July slipped slightly to 54.7 from 55.7 in June but still reflects strong and continuing demand for design services for nonresidential construction. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings for design services. The new projects inquiry index was 63.7 in July, up from 63.4 the previous month. “On […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. This month we have revised our data back through 1994 to account for massive revisions to the G17 data. Incidentally this is why many analysts question government data out of China who never revise their historical information. The US sometimes revises data […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
The following article was written by Peter Wright, consultant and instructor associated with Steel Market Update. Mr. Wright writes a more detailed article for our Premium level clients that spells out details of currency changes for all of the steel trading nations. He noticed that the Chinese government is intervening in the value of their […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of August […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 215,000 jobs were added in July which was slightly less than consensus expectations. May and June were revised up by a total of 14,000. Monthly job gains have averaged 246,500 over the past seven months. In the 12 months through July, […]
ATI has threatened a potential lockout over contract negotiations. Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI) offered the USW Bargaining Committee its “last, best and final” proposal last Friday. According to the USW the proposal was accompanied by a request from ATI that “the Union accept this proposal and recommend it for ratification by 3:00 p.m. on Monday, […]
China made a surprise devaluation of its currency today to bolster its faltering economy. The 2 percent devaluation of the yuan will make imports to China more expensive but will make exports more attractive to international traders. The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) issued a statement today concerning today’s currency move by the Chinese […]
The Institute for Supply Management’s Steel Buyers’ Forum conducts a monthly survey regarding current steel supplies/products and future projections. Please note that the July 2015 survey appears sparse with only 11 respondents. When asked at current shipping levels, tons on hand would cover how many months, 27.3 percent said 0-1 month compared to 30.8 percent […]
ATI Flat Rolled Products presented its “Last, Best and Final” contract proposal to the USW negotiating committee on Friday. The more than 2,000 union represented employees at ATI have been working under terms of a contract that expired June 30, 2015. ATI management told employees that changes must be made to adapt to a changing […]
The Q3 2015 February Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on August 3rd. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 71 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches […]
Lightweighting vehicles with advanced high strength steel was the topic of conversation August 3 at the Center for Automotive Research Management Briefing Seminars, in Traverse City, Mich. “Steel is the clear winner in the material competition as a result of its superior value,” said panelist Dr. Jody Hall, Vice President-Automotive Market, Steel Market Development Institute […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their July report on August 3rd. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the index gained 1.3 points in May a further 0.7 points in June then declined by 0.8 points in July to 52.7 with […]
Global manufacturing was relatively flat in July. Increases in the Eurozone, North America and Japan could not offset contractions in Greece and Asia. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 51.0, unchanged from June and continuing its weakest reading in two years. Overall manufacturing output remained in the positive, above 50, range for the thirty-second […]
The Chicago Business Barometer pulled out of contraction in July with a gain of 5.3 points to register 54.7, indicating an expansion in manufacturing activity. Production rose by 12 points to 61.8 accompanied by a strong gain in new orders. Both production and new orders expanded at the fastest pace since January. Employment levels, order […]
SMU previously published this article with incorrect graphics, the corrected ones are below. Our apologies for the mistake. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday. In the big picture, the change (delta) in GDP is equal to the […]
The USW bargaining committee from Allegheny Technologies Inc. declined to bring the company’s latest contract proposal to a vote. The contract presented to the union on July 24 “shows some measurable improvements on some issues but falls far short of a fair or acceptable offer on key issues including healthcare, retirement security, and scheduling.” The […]
The United Steel Workers received an outline of a contract proposal from US Steel Corp. and found it riddled with concessions that the USW says would “erode decades of contractural improvements and benefits.” Health benefits seem to be a consistent theme in labor negotiations this year. US Steel is seeking to increase the minimum annual […]
New orders for durable goods in June increased by 3.4 percent month on month to $235.337 billion. This exceeded analysts’ expectations but the strongest component was an increase in civil aircraft orders. Orders for motor vehicles and parts retained their strength. The three month moving average (3MMA) declined by 0.2 percent. The 3MMA has been […]
Consumer confidence took a big hit in July, according to the Conference Board with a decline from June’s 99.8 to a 10-month low of 90.9. In addition there was a downward revision to June’s result. It was a steep slide in the expectations subcomponent that pulled the composite value lower. The official news release from […]
Texas manufacturing has been in a slump for several months but is beginning to show signs of improvement. Manufacturing activity in Texas declined slightly in July according to The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Most of the indexes in the survey were in negative numbers but slowly creeping […]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its manufacturing survey for the Fifth District on Tuesday showing moderate expansion in July. Shipments, new orders, and order backlogs all increased during the month. The composite index rose to 13 from 7 in June and 3 in May. The employment indices decreased to 1 while the wages […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are very close. In the last six quarters since Q1 2014, the Feds reported total job creation of 4,320,000 and the states reported 4,093,000. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of […]