The PMA and ILWU released a joint statement Friday evening that a tentative agreement has been reached on a new five year contract covering port workers on the West Coast. After nine months of trading blame for slowdowns and congestion at the ports, the White House sent Labor Secretary Tom Perez to hammer out an […]
United Steelworkers representing the nations refineries turned down a seventh contract offer from Shell Oil Co. Negotiations, which began January 1, took a one week hiatus before resuming on Wednesday and ending in frustration on Friday. The USW said the latest offer from Shell, which is leading the contract negotiations for the U.S. refineries, “failed […]
Those of us near the Great Lakes (presently experiencing minus degree temperatures and seemingly endless snow) are beginning to wonder if winter 2015 is a repeat of 2014. Last year the Great Lakes had unprecedented ice coverage. The Great Lakes shipping season was delayed into April with cargo shipments plummeting by nearly 7 million tons […]
Metal forming companies expressed less optimism in the February Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Out of a sampling of 119 metal forming companies in the U.S. and Canada, only 33 percent of participants expect economic activity to improve over the next three months, down from 45 percent in January. Incoming orders are expected […]
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) released their Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month of January on Wednesday this week, reporting that the latest index is at a nine month low. The ABI score for January was 49.9, down 2.8 points from December’s score of 52.7. Note that the index is centered around […]
The first graphic depicted below shows published Chinese data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q4 2014. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. GDP grew 7.3 percent y/y in both the 3rd and 4th quarters and has been declining since Q1 2010. […]
Manufacturing activity in New York expanded at a modest pace in February according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The general business index dipped two points to register 7.8. The index for new orders was down five points to 1.2 indicating flat activity. Shipments rose 4.5 points to 14.1. Delivery times were relatively unchanged […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
The Coface Group, a worldwide leader in credit insurance, publishes country risk assessments for 160 countries, based on its unique knowledge of company payment behavior and on the expertise of 350 underwriters located close to clients and their debtors. The following a reprint of their risk outlook for 2015. Laborious Global Recovery, Subject to Multiple […]
Dry cargo rates continue to plummet as the Baltic Dry Cargo index dropped to record lows last week. The index fell to 553 on Wednesday and continued to slide downward to end the week at 530 points. MID-SHIP says shipowners and operators are suffering major revenue losses, with one owner/operator declaring bankruptcy last week. Charterers […]
Operations were terminated at West Coast ports by the Pacific Maritime Association over the weekend. On Monday, the ILWU issued the following statement regarding the re-opening of the ports. “West Coast ports re-opened Monday morning after employers closed the docks for two days, increasing delays for customers needing containers. The union remains focused on reaching […]
The following article was taken from the Armada Corporate Intelligence Report dated February 11,2015. The report is written by Dr. Chris Kuehl and his business partner, Keith Prather. Dr. Kuehl spoke at our last Steel Summit Conference in September 2014 and will once again be a keynote speaker for our 2015 Steel Summit Conference on […]
The USW oil refinery strike has expanded to 11 plants and is nearing the end of its second week. Over 3,800 workers are now actively striking, protesting unsafe conditions and use of unskilled contractors. The latest facilities to be affected by the strike are British Petroleum (BP) refineries in Whiting, Indiana and Toledo, Ohio, joining […]
Last month we began to report on domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market in one single report to be able to compare side by side demand and the degree to which imports have absorbed that demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by […]
The Q1 2015 February Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on February 2nd. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 73 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 257,000 jobs were added in January. As we were analyzing this date we noticed massive historical revisions and had to go back to January 2000 (15 years!) before were confident we had caught them all. In the 12 months of 2014, job creation […]
The International Longshore and Warehouse Union and Pacific Maritime Association are closing the gap on negotiation demands. The latest offer by the PMA includes higher wages, continuation of a fully paid health care package and jurisdiction over maintenance and repair of truck chassis. The ILWU said a contract agreement is “extremely close” and the few […]
Dan DiMicco continues to make economic and political waves with his newest book, American Made: Why Making Things Will Return Us to Greatness. In his book, the outspoken former Nucor CEO and chairman tells how restoring American manufacturing to greatness will make America strong. Publisher St. Martin’s Press, says that DiMicco, with his usual blunt […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their January report on February 2nd. An explanation of this data set is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back once again from 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January. The three month moving average has declined for […]
The United States Senate passed the Keystone XL oil pipeline bill by a vote of 62-36 on Thursday, Jan. 29. Nine Democrats joined the Republican-controlled Senate in supporting the bill. The House is expected to vote on the Senate version of the bill early next week. The Keystone XL legislation includes two energy-efficiency programs that […]
Global manufacturing continues to grow steadily with expansion in production and new orders in January. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose slightly last month to 51.7 from 51.5 in December. “The PMI turned higher in January, including moderate gains in the indexes of output and new orders,” commented David Hensley, Director of Global Economics […]
Barge activity on the lower Mississippi remains strong. Winter weather has hindered freight movement in a few northern regions and barge availability is tight in some areas, according to the latest MID-SHIP Report. Northbound barges are showing strong steel and salt cargoes. Stevedores have been working vessels as they arrive in New Orleans and elsewhere […]
The Chicago Business Barometer rose 0.6 points in January to 59.4 from a revised reading of 58.8 in December. The increased manufacturing activity follows two consecutive months of declines. The index showed a modest increase in a new orders, order backlogs and production, driving employment to a 14-month high. Inflationary pressures eased for the fourth […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are reasonably close with the Feds reporting total job creation in 2014 of 2,968,000 and the states reporting 2,664,000. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of Federal and State totals since […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q4 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. The annualized growth rate in the 4th Q disappointed economic pundits by coming in at 2.64 percent after increasing by almost 5.0 percent in Q3. GDP is measured and reported in […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of December 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in December were 86,850,000 metric tons, an increase of 28.9 percent from the previous month and an increase of 18.4 percent […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board rose strongly in January and the December results were revised upwards. The composite rose from 93.1 to 102.9, the view of the present situation rose from 99.9 to 102.6 as expectations rose from 88.5 to 96.4. This was the first time for the composite to […]
Turmoil continues in the global currency markets as the European Central Bank announced a quantitative easing program last week, S&P downgraded Russian debt to junk status yesterday, the Greek national election on Sunday will result in a strong resistance to EU mandated austerity programs and the Swiss removed the currency cap vs the Euro last […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. Index shows economic growth slowed in […]
New orders for durable goods in December fell by 3.4 percent from November’s level to $230.5 billion, economists had expected a 0.5 percent gain. The three month moving average (3MMA) fell by 1.7 percent. The December result is a sharp deviation from the trend line that has existed since the recession, (Figure 1). The huge […]