On Wednesday, March 17, Steel Market Update will host John Packard (SMU CEO) and Ryan Smith, Senior Analyst covering global steel costing and decarbonization for CRU. This will be a special program in that Ryan resides in Sydney, Australia, thus the 3:30 p.m. EDST time instead of our usual 11 a.m. start time Ryan Smith […]
The United States’ two leading steel industry associations have cheered the Senate confirmation of Michael Regan, the new head of the Environmental Protection Agency. The move comes as the U.S. steel industry increasingly looks to burnish its credentials as a green industry – and as the potential of a carbon-border tax boosts the economic viability […]
I am going to spend some time discussing Steel Market Update this evening. I started SMU in August 2008 as a one-man show. The company has grown over the years both in size and scope. The sale of the company to CRU has turned out to be a blessing (I think for both companies), and […]
Service centers reported lower shipments during the month of February partially due to the harsh winter weather associated with “Snowmageddon.” Steel Market Update’s proprietary service center inventories and shipments report indicated 42.7 days of flat rolled inventories, which is up from 40 days of supply on hand at the end of January. Plate inventories stood […]
The U.S Department of Commerce has decided to continue antidumping duties on cut-to-length plate imported from China, Russia and Ukraine as part of the “sunset review” process. China will remain subject to dumping margins of up to 128.59%, Russia to dumping margins of as much as 185% and Ukraine to margins of up to 237.91%, […]
A couple weeks back we were beginning to think the rise in spot prices would soon slow and we were close to a tipping point. We no longer have that opinion due to Snowmageddon, the winter storm that exacerbated the already late deliveries out of multiple steel mills. On top of that, we are seeing […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has seen little change since the beginning of February, recording a very optimistic reading of +69 this week. Future Sentiment moved up four points to a nearly as bullish +67. Both Current and Future Sentiment now exceed pre-pandemic levels and suggest that the market is hopeful […]
Last week, we conducted one of our flat rolled and plate steel market trends analyses. Or, to put it another way (that the search engines don’t like), we conducted one of our surveys that we do ever other week. We invited over 500+ market participants, most of whom are steel buyers in the manufacturing and […]
Biden administration Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo described Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum as “effective” on Thursday. “The data show that those tariffs have been effective,” Secretary Raimondo said in an interview with MSNBC. Raimondo’s comments are important because trade policies such as Section 232, which Trump rolled out in March 2018, fall […]
The energy sector is definitely improving, stated Rick Preckel, partner at the consulting firm Preston Pipe, during Wednesday’s SMU Community Chat. Excess inventory of crude oil is beginning to move and rig counts are getting better. As rig counts and drilling pick up, OCTG product demand will flow quickly through the cycle. OCTG price increases are […]
You Can’t See the Forest for the Trees Mill lead times have surged over the past couple of weeks, which I believe is a result of Snowmageddon in Texas and other areas of the Southeast. When you look at our lead time graphics, you need to remember we are gathering data from our flat rolled […]
Tomorrow (Wednesday), we will host one of our SMU Community Chat Webinars with Rick Preckel of Preston Pipe and Michael Cowden of SMU. The two will discuss the energy segment and how higher oil prices will impact oil well drilling, use of line pipe and other OCTG products, and how quickly we may see demand […]
U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) nominee Katherine Tai expressed support for Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, characterizing the duties as a “legitimate tool in the trade toolbox.” The prospective top U.S. trade negotiator also signaled that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) – the replacement to the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) – would […]
There has been much said about the squeeze on supply of flat rolled and not as much about demand. Demand has been quite good in all sectors except the energy sector, which has been struggling for a couple of years due to prices that went below $40 per barrel. Now we are seeing warning signs […]
Preston Pipe Partner Rick Preckel will be the speaker at Steel Market Update’s next Community Chat webinar. The webinar will be held on Wednesday, March 3, at 11 a.m. ET and is free to those looking to learn more about the interplay between the steel and energy markets. Joining Rick will be SMU Senior Editor […]
Steel prices will likely stay elevated until supplies catch up with demand, say the experts, so is there enough foreign steel on the way here to make a difference? Two out of three respondents to a recent SMU survey said foreign offers are very competitive versus domestic prices. With steel prices in the U.S. at […]
The U.S. Commerce Department has preliminarily increased anti-dumping margins on several major Japanese hot-rolled coil suppliers. Commerce calculated preliminary anti-dumping margins of 11.70% for Nippon Steel, Japan’s largest steelmaker, and 6.8% for Tokyo Steel Manufacturing. Nippon Steel and Tokyo Steel were the mandatory respondents in the case. But a litany of Japanese steel suppliers–including JFE […]
“Snowmageddon” did not help. Steel buyers are telling Steel Market Update that last week’s “Snowmageddon,” as one buyer called it, has caused steel orders into the South and South Central sections of the United States to be pushed out an additional one to two weeks. “We’re seeing some adjustments arising out of last week’s weather with […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, hit a very optimistic +70 this week, not far from the highest reading ever recorded at +78 in January 2018. Future Sentiment was nearly as bullish at +63, just 14 points below its historical peak of +77, also in early 2018. Both Current Sentiment and Future […]
It is my opinion the U.S. is entering a “super cycle” that will be good for the steel industry and could well keep steel prices above the historical $600-$650 per ton average on benchmark hot rolled coils. This does not mean prices won’t scale back once more supply comes into the market. I am of […]
Many buyers have been expecting lead times for deliveries of spot steel orders to begin shortening in response to added mill capacity and more import arrivals, but there’s no hint of such a change yet in Steel Market Update lead times data. In fact, SMU’s check of the market this week shows lead times for […]
Lead times for spot orders of cold rolled and coated products have now extended to more than 10 weeks, while lead times for hot rolled now exceed nine weeks, based on Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week. Despite widespread expectations that mill lead times are overdue to reverse course as supplies catch […]
Steel Market Update data shows no significant change in the negotiating position of steel buyers, who remain largely at the mercy of the mills. More than nine out of 10 buyers responding to SMU’s questionnaire this week reported the mills unwilling to discuss price concessions—which has been the mills’ attitude for the past five months. […]
All but a tiny 3% of respondents to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week reported that the flat rolled mills remain unwilling to negotiate steel prices. Plate negotiations are only slightly more open, with 17% of buyers saying there is some wiggle room in price talks with the plate producers. As long as steel demand […]
Good news for NLMK USA customers as the mill has worked out a tentative agreement with the union at their Farrell, Pa., facility, which will end the strike that goes back to late August. Once back in production, this will help (slightly) with some of the supply issues we have been seeing in the market. […]
Black Swan Events One of the areas I cover when I am teaching my segment of our Steel 101 workshop is Black Swan Events and how they can impact the steel market – especially steel prices. Most of the United States appear to be having a Black Swan Event in the form of unusually cold […]
The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) remains concerned that General Approved Exclusions (GAEs) to Section 232 tariffs and quotas could lead to a surge in imports, the head of the lobbying group said. “This (GAEs) is not ending the entire Section 232 program by any means. But it has the potential to degrade the […]
Big changes to Section 232 steel tariffs and quotas are unlikely in the short-term because of a backlogged Senate and because of a broader trade policy review, the head of the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) said. One obvious hurdle to any big moves on the trade front: President Joe Biden does not have […]
The World Trade Organization made history on Monday with the appointment of Dr. Okonjo-Iweala as the first woman and the first African to be chosen as Director General. “This is a very significant moment for the WTO. On behalf of the General Council, I extend our warmest congratulations to Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on her appointment […]
Flat Rolled = 40 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 46.5 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled End-of-January service center flat rolled steel inventories fell back to levels seen in November 2020. At the end of January, service centers carried 40 shipping days of supply – tied with November for the lowest inventory level in […]