Consumer confidence continued this year’s highly erratic trend in the October data. As we have reported in earlier write-ups on this subject, 2015 has been tremendously more variable month to month this year than last. In all of 2014 the monthly change ranged from +5.1 to -4.4, this year the range has been +10.7 to […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 1.2 percent in September, following a decrease of 3.0 percent in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Manufactured goods have been pressured by a decrease in exports due to weak global economic conditions and a strong U.S. dollar that makes pricing for U.S. products less competitive. Transportation […]
The Texas manufacturing Outlook Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas showed manufacturing increasing in October after nine months of flat or declining output. The production index rose to 4.8 for the first growth in output for the region in 2015. New orders continued a third month of negative reading, falling 3 points […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are very close. In the last six quarters since Q1 2014, the Feds reported total job creation of 4,849,000 and the states reported 4,475,000. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of […]
The Precision Metalforming Association expects continuing weaker business conditions for the next three months. The PMA’s October Business Conditions Report showed a “minor, but continuing,” downturn in economic activity along with anticipation that orders will soften in the coming months. Current daily shipping levels dipped in October with 33 percent of survey participants reporting a […]
Companies have a tendency to want to put their heads in the sand and not take any risks during uncertain times. At the moment, based on data we are compiling on our own as well as economic data produced by others, well let’s just suffice it to say there is no clear picture as to […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of September 2015, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in September were 86,120,000 metric tons, an increase of 16.2 percent from the previous month and an increase of 1.7 percent from […]
The September Architecture Billings Index rebounded from August’s dip into negative territory. September’s ABI score was 53.7 up from 49.1 the previous month, continuing the see-saw pattern the index has shown throughout 2015. “Aside from uneven demand for design services in the Northeast, all regions are project sectors are in good shape,” said AIA Chief […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q3 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was 6.9 percent in the third Q, beating forecasts for 6.8 percent growth, but decelerating to its slowest pace […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 107.9108 in November last year but on a month over month basis has declined for eight of the first nine months of 2015. On a year over year basis using a three month moving average […]
We have two data sources for this report: the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily Broad Index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of October 15th the […]
A settlement in the RG Steel Chapter 11 bankruptcy case will give the USW a 70 percent share of the $17.4 million that will be distributed to creditors. The union will receive $12 million, including $6.3 million in vacation and severance pay owed workers. The USW has been working to recover funds for workers and […]
Two of the nation’s most watched manufacturing indicators showed weakening business conditions in October. Surveys of manufacturing firms conducted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and New York also indicated muted optimism for business conditions during the next six months. Empire State Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing activity declined for the third consecutive month in New […]
Global steel demand will decrease by -1.7 percent to 1,513 million tonnes in 2015, according to the World Steel Association’s Short Range Outlook for 2015 and 2016. The 2015 decrease follows a gain of 0.7 percent in 2014, the same amount of growth that WSA expects to see again in 2016 as steel demand reaches […]
We include here an abridged statement from the IMF that was released last week and in which the commodity situation looms large. Followed by our Steel Market Update data analysis and comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2020. Transcript of the World Economic Outlook Press Conference Good morning. I have […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 142,000 jobs were added in September which was well below consensus expectations of about 200,000. In addition July was revised down from 245,000 to 223,000 and August was revised down from 173,000 to 136,000. An upward revision for August had been […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, which tracks the initial planning of nonresidential building projects, gained 5.8 percent in September to register 133.5. Planning for institutional building led the increase with a 12.0 percent jump from August. Dodge Data & Analytics reports institutional planning has been on an erratic upward trend as state and local budgets recover […]
Global manufacturing has been trending flat to downward for most of 2015. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI continued that trend in September with a posting of 50.6 from 50.7 in August. The PMI was the lowest it has been since July and has averaged 50.8 for third quarter. Any reading over 50.0 is considered […]
We ended the month of September recognizing that not only have steel prices been falling but the Momentum behind pricing turned negative during the month. Our SMU Price Momentum Indicator is now pointing toward Lower prices to be seen in the coming month or longer. Sentiment, another Key Market Indicator, has been dropping as you […]
The September Institute of Supply Management (ISM) PMI registered 50.2 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the 51.7 percent reading in August. The PMI is at its lowest point since May 2013 when it registered 50.1 percent. The three month moving average has been see-sawing since June when it gained points after seven […]
The Chicago Business Barometer, or Chicago PMI as it is more commonly known, surprised economists by dropping 5.7 points to 48.7 in September The decline follows two months of expansion and the speed of descent is a cause for concern said MNI Indicators. The production index plummeted by double digits to its lowest level since […]
Flat rolled steel prices have been slipping on a regular basis for a number of months. This has created a market where buyers expect lower prices each time they order steel, even if there is only a week or two between orders. This tends to keep order sizes modest and develops a feeding frenzy between […]
The Consumer Confidence Index improved for the second month in September, up from 101.3 in August to 103.0. The reading was the highest since January and exceeded Bloomberg’s median forecast of 96.8 and Reuter’s forecast of 96.1. Consumers in the September survey were more positive about current condition with 28 percent calling the present situation […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. In the big picture, the change (delta, Δ) in GDP is equal to the change in population plus the change in productivity, that is Δ GDP = Δ Population + Δ […]
New orders for durable goods in August declined by 2.0 percent month on month to $236.322 billion. This result was in line with analyst’s expectations and was a result of a decline in transportation orders, mainly civil aircraft. Orders excluding transportation were unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 1.3 percent. The 3MMA […]
New orders for durable goods in August declined by 2.0 percent month on month to $236.322 billion. This result was in line with analyst’s expectations and was a result of a decline in transportation orders, mainly civil aircraft. Orders excluding transportation were unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 1.3 percent. The 3MMA […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
The Architecture Billings Index slipped below the neutral point in August indicating a decrease in construction design planning. The August ABI score registered 49.1, down from 54.7 in July. The new projects inquiry index dropped to 61.8, down from 63.7. The slip is “not a cause for concern” according to AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker: […]