As the steel industry continues to wait for President Trump’s decision on restricting steel imports on national security grounds, steel prices continue to rise. Has the market already factored in Section 232? In Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire, SMU asked steel buyers: Do you believe existing steel prices include a positive Section 232 […]
Steel Market Update publisher, John Packard, traded comments with a financial analysts who was of the opinion that demand was under duress and the future of the steel using markets was in doubt. This does not match our belief based on a review of the SMU Key Market Indicators. We are sharing this report with […]
Steel Market Update forecast December 2017 flat rolled steel shipments from U.S. service centers would be 87,850 tons per day. The Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported last week that sheet distributors shipped 87,805 tons per day. We missed being perfect by 45 tons per day. Receipts coming into the service centers has been harder […]
Most steel buyers agree that prices are on the increase, it’s just a question of how high and how fast. About 92 percent of the respondents to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire concur that steel prices are heading higher, while the remainder say they see no clear price direction. Following are some of […]
Is demand strong enough to support the latest wave of mill price increases? The majority (53 percent) of respondents to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire say demand is unchanged, while 6 percent describe it as declining. Only 41 percent consider steel demand to be improving as the new year begins. Following are a […]
Service center shipments in December were stronger than the seasonal norm, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Metals Service Center Institute data. Daily shipments in December were 11.8 percent lower than in November. On average since 2009, December shipments have decreased by 13.1 percent; therefore, these latest numbers were seasonally better than the […]
China’s steel production has continued to grow year over year, contradicting all the hoopla about production cuts, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Chinese government data. Once each quarter, we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Many analysts don’t believe these self-serving Party […]
Premium subscribers to Steel Market Update receive reports on imports with macro data broken down by product at the national level. SMU also provides reports that detail the import tonnage received by district of entry and source nation, available here on our website. This new report from SMU takes the analysis even further. Using U.S. […]
Current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers has rarely been higher, according to the latest Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The index measures changes in buyers’ optimism levels, which offers insight into their likely decision-making. Nearly eight out of 10 respondents to SMU’s flat rolled steel questionnaire say their company’s chances […]
Mill lead times on flat rolled steel have extended in the past two weeks to levels not seen since the spring of 2017, according to the latest data from Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire. The average lead time for hot roll has hit four and a half weeks, while lead times for cold roll, […]
The mills are clearly trying to collect the price increases they announced on flat roll in December and January, but they appear to be experiencing only some success. About 40 percent of steel buyers responding to the latest Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire say they have found their mill suppliers unwilling to negotiate on […]
Over the past six months, Steel Market Update has been canvassing flat rolled steel service centers as we try to better understand the number of months of supply being held as of the end of each month. Steel distributors now hold three months (3.03 month’s supply) based on the responses we have received from our […]
Premium subscribers to Steel Market Update receive reports on imports with macro data broken down by product on the national level. SMU also provides reports that detail the import tonnage received by district of entry and source nation. This new report from SMU takes the analysis even further. Using U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data, […]
Did your business exceed its goals for 2017? If so, you are among the top one-third (32 percent) of companies responding to Steel Market Update’s latest flat roll market trends questionnaire. Last year was clearly a good one for most steel suppliers and buyers as another 46 percent reported meeting their business expectations despite the […]
Current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers remains high as the New Year begins, much the same as at this time last year, according to the Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures changes in buyers’ optimism levels, which offers insight into their likely decision-making. Three […]
Six months ago, Steel Market Update began collecting inventory data from a select group of flat rolled and plate steel service centers. Over time, the number of participating distributors has grown and we have been able to expedite the gathering of information from most (not all) of the service centers involved. Our initial goal is […]
So far this month, Steel Market Update has had a strong response rate from the service centers registered as inventories data providers. As of this afternoon, we had 79 percent of the steel service center data providers respond to our inquiry about their flat rolled and plate steel inventories. The headline number is flat rolled […]
Mill lead times on flat rolled steel extended a bit last month, but defied expectations and returned to prior levels despite mill price hikes in December and January, according to the latest data from Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire. Lead time for hot roll remains slightly over four weeks, for cold roll slightly over […]
Despite price increases by the major mills in December, followed by additional increases this week, the majority of buyers of flat rolled steel report mixed results in their negotiations with mill representatives. About 53 percent of respondents to the latest Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire report that some mills are firm and some still […]
Key market indicators bode well for business conditions in the first quarter of 2018. Steel Market Update’s view of the present situation based on our examination of data released in December shows that 47.2 percent of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only 19 percent negative. The balance is within the historically normal band. […]
Current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers improved further in December, according to the Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index, mirroring the pattern at this time last year that heralded a strong first quarter. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures changes in buyers’ optimism levels, which offers insight into their likely […]
Flat rolled steel inventories ended November in approximate balance with current activity levels, based on the proprietary Steel Market Update Apparent Excess/Deficit model, which SMU applies to MSCI inventory and shipment data. Comparing shipments and inventory on a historical basis allows SMU to forecast if the distribution channel is likely to be over- or under-supplied […]
In addition to the tax overhaul passed by the Republicans this week, President Trump has promised a trillion-dollar infrastructure overhaul. Given the possible $1.5 trillion cost of the tax cuts, will the public have the stomach for another big bill to fix the nation’s aging roads and bridges? Respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends […]
Mill lead times have inched up slightly in the past two weeks following price hikes announced by the major mills earlier this month, according to the latest data from Steel Market Update’s flat roll market questionnaire. One of the key indicators tracked by SMU, lead times reflect the activity at the mills and the order […]
Buyers of flat rolled steel report that more mills are holding the line on pricing following the price increases announced earlier this month. Mill order books are firm and there’s no negotiating for a better price, according to 28 percent of respondents to SMU’s latest steel market questionnaire. About 22 percent say they still find […]
More than nine out of 10 respondents to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire see steel prices heading higher in the first quarter. Seven percent say they see no clear direction for prices. Virtually no one expects prices to decline in the wake of price hike announcements by the major mills earlier this month. […]
Service centers continue to hold flat rolled inventories steady at 2.89 months of supply at the end of November, according to the proprietary Steel Market Update Service Center Inventories Index (SSII). This is now the third consecutive month we have found flat rolled steel distributors’ inventories close to the three months of supply level. Contrast […]
Both flat rolled and plate steel distributors saw only a very modest drop in inventories as of the end of July. Inventories continue to be “balanced” at 2.7 months of supply on flat rolled and 2.1 months of supply on plate, according to Steel Market Update’s proprietary inventory data. Flat Rolled Spread Tightens Although our […]
Domestic mills are in the driver’s seat and steel prices have nowhere to go but up, agreed most respondents to Steel Market Update’s flat roll market trends questionnaire this week. SMU contacts steel buyers twice each month to monitor their views on market conditions. Asked for their opinion on the current direction of steel prices, […]
Current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers ticked up a bit in the past two weeks, according to the Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The same pattern started to appear at this time last year, leading into a strong first quarter. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures changes in buyers’ […]