By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Our global economic forecast has stabilized as our understanding of the economic impact brought on by the virus has improved. In August, there have been some offsetting changes across regions with the USA and China data a little stronger than expected and the EU […]
Manufacturing activity in the New York region slowed in August, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The Empire State Manufacturing Index slid 14 points to 3.7 in August, well below economists’ estimates in the range of 14-17. A reading above zero indicates activity is expanding. “After increasing significantly in July for the […]
Nonfarm employment rose by 1.7 million in July, but from May through July has made back less than half the losses of March and April. The July jobs report was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday and slightly exceeded analyst’s expectations by adding 1.8 million jobs. May’s job gain was revised up […]
The primary metals sector is looking much worse than manufacturing as a whole in the employment picture. The net change in employed persons was negative 20.8 million in April, positive 2.7 million in May, positive 4.8 million in June and positive 1.8 million in July. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing […]
Mill shipments and supply of sheet products began to turn around in June. This analysis based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import-export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The analysis summarizes total steel supply by product from 2008 through June 2020 and year-on-year changes. The […]
Steel prices declined throughout the month of July, although mills announced price increases in the third week of the month. As of last week, Steel Market Update’s hot rolled price average had declined to $450 per ton. Scrap prices declined from June to July by $18-48 per ton. SMU adjusted its Price Momentum Indicator from Lower […]
The coronavirus has claimed another casualty—the FABTECH trade show. Organizers of the annual event, which showcases the latest and greatest in metal fabricating technology, have cancelled the gathering, which they had hoped to hold in Las Vegas on Nov. 18-20, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. FABTECH is jointly sponsored by SME (formerly the Society […]
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in July, a decline from June but an improvement over recent months. The composite index now stands at 92.6, down from 98.3 in June, and down from 135.8 percent one year prior. “Consumer Confidence declined in July following a large gain in June,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director […]
The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded again in July indicating a third consecutive month of growth for the overall economy, said the Institute for Supply Management in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The July PMI rose 1.6 points from June to register 54.2. “The growth cycle continues for the second straight month after three […]
Global manufacturing finally moved into expansion territory in July, posting 50.3 on the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI, up from 47.9 in June. Production and new orders both rose from contraction, posting PMIs of 51.5 and 50.7, respectively. Thirteen of the 27 countries with manufacturing data available posted readings above 50 in July. International trade […]
Steps to contain the coronavirus pandemic have taken a serious toll on industrial production, manufacturing and durable goods orders in the U.S., but the data shows signs of improvement in June. The health of the manufacturing economy has a direct bearing on the health of the steel industry. The Industrial Production Index The IP index is […]
By CRU Economist Anissa Chabib from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook The estimate of U.S. GDP for Q2 2020 shows a decline of 32.9 percent q/q. This is the biggest drop on record, but slightly better than expected. Overall, the surprisingly good data on consumption, sentiment and production released in July is due to the reopening […]
A spike in business activity was recorded by the Chicago Business Barometer in July. The index rebounded from 12 months of contraction to a reading of 51.9. Increasing demand resulted in a vault of 23.8 points for the new orders index to its highest level since August 2019. Production soared 49.5 percent and back into […]
Durable goods orders rose again in June gaining 7.3 percent as a surge in auto sales helped offset a heavy decline in commercial aircraft orders. Orders for commercial aircraft and parts plummeted an astounding 462 percent last month while orders for new trucks and cars rebounded 86 percent after pandemic shutdowns. Core capital goods, non-defense […]
In 12 months through June, China’s steel production exceeded one billion metric tons for the first time. Figure 1 shows annualized monthly global steel production on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis and capacity utilization since January 2000 based on the updated OECD capacity data. Capacity utilization in June on a 3MMA basis was 75.3 […]
Global steel production contracted by 6 percent year over year in the three months through July as China’s steel production expanded by 6 percent to another all-time high. This data comes from the World Steel Association (WSA), which defines crude steel as “steel in its first solid (or usable) form: ingots, semi-finished products (billets, blooms, […]
Global crude steel production expanded for the first time since February in the three months through September. This data comes from the World Steel Association (WSA), which defines crude steel as, “steel in its first solid (or usable) form: ingots, semi-finished products (billets, blooms, slabs), and liquid steel for castings.” Figure 1 shows annualized monthly […]
U.S. gross domestic product had negative growth in every region of the country in the first quarter of 2020 following four quarters when every region had positive growth, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The BEA reports GDP by state and region on a quarterly basis. This data is released several weeks after the […]
Join us for CRU’s free economic outlook webinar, where CRU experts will answer your questions about the impact of Covid-19 on the global economy. Tuesday Aug. 4, 2020 Session I – 8:00 AM BST (3:00 PM CST)Session II – 10:00 AM EDT (3:00 PM BST) Topics discussed Key phases of the Covid-19 downturn and recovery […]
Steel industry trade groups have joined voices in calling for significant funding for state departments of transportation (DOTs) in the next phase of COVID-19 stimulus legislation. Members of The American Institute of Steel Construction (AISC), American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA), The Committee on Pipe and Tube Imports (CPTI) and the […]
Demand for design services by architectural firms showed signs of stabilizing in June. The Architecture Billings Index rose 8.0 points to post a score of 40.0. A score of 50 is the neutral point between contraction and expansion. “While business conditions remained soft at firms across the country, those with a multifamily residential specialization saw […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. On a percentage basis, the North East and New England suffered the worst job losses in the first half of 2020. The full force of the pandemic-led job losses […]
Since the severe pandemic-led job losses of March and April, all regions and all states have seen some level of recovery, though not on a uniform basis. The recovery in Michigan has far exceeded that of Texas, for example, a reversal of what is considered the normal employment pattern. Comparing September to April on a […]
The U.S. dollar weakened against 14 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last 90 days, which follows a decline against nine in our June 14 report. The biggest change was in the value of the Australian dollar, which was up by 9.3 percent in three months. The only currencies […]
The U.S. dollar weakened against 14 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last 90 days, which follows the same decline that we reported July 14. The biggest changes were in the value of the Australian dollar, which was up by 11.4 percent, following a 9.3 percent appreciation in our […]
The July Federal Reserve “Beige Book” showed economic activity increased in almost all Districts, but was far below pre-pandemic levels. Information from Districts collected on or prior to July 6 revealed a pickup in consumer spending as states began lifting COVID-19 restrictions. Automotive sales led the rebound in consumer activity as well as sustained growth […]
New Yorkers received some respite in the manufacturing sector on Wednesday. The headline general business index of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose to 17.2 in July for its first positive reading since February. The index rose 17.4 points from -0.2 in February with 41 percent of respondents reporting improved business conditions during the month. […]
Kevin Dempsey has taken the reins as the chief executive at the American Iron and Steel Institute at a challenging and unprecedented time. Indeed, helping AISI’s steel mill members navigate an economy hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic is first and foremost on his agenda, he said in an interview with Steel Market Update on […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from the Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook There is widespread agreement that the dollar is overvalued by around 10 percent. CRU expects the trade weighted dollar (TW$) to remain overvalued and broadly stable for the rest of 2020, as pandemic uncertainty continues to support the dollar as a “safe-haven” […]
Steel buyers are split on whether the government will need to shut down parts of the economy once again to get the spread of the coronavirus under control. In this week’s check of the market, Steel Market Update asked: Are you or your company concerned about the rising numbers of COVID-19 cases in the South […]