Economists consider recessions to be a necessary evil to clear out distortions that have arisen in the economy. At Steel Market Update, we track several leading indicators of economic activity. Viewed individually, they offer limited insight on economic expansion or contraction. Viewed collectively, they give subscribers a composite view of present and future business activity. […]
Global manufacturing growth in March slowed to its lowest level since October 2017. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted 53.4, down from 54.1 in February. Rates of expansion fell in the consumer and intermediate goods sectors, while the investment goods PMI rose to its highest level so far this year. Manufacturing growth eased in […]
Manufacturing activity expanded in March, though at a slower rate than February, reports the Institute for Supply Management. ISM’s March PMI registered 59.3 percent, down from 60.8 percent in the February survey of corporate purchasing managers. Any reading above 50 indicates growth. New orders continued to expand in March, although slowing 2.3 percentage points from […]
U.S. GDP grew by 2.86 percent in fourth-quarter 2017. In its third estimate of GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the figure upward from its first estimate of 2.53 percent. While still positive, U.S. economic growth in the last quarter of the year showed a decline from the strong performance of the second […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in March, but the three-month moving average continued to advance, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in February was 127.7, down from 130.0 in February. The three-month moving average (3MMA) increased from 125.8 in February to 127.3 in March, which was 9.8 points […]
Steel price momentum remained on the upswing in March, but steel buyers appeared slightly less optimistic about their prospects as President Trump’s tariffs and fears of a trade war weighed on many minds. The price of benchmark hot roll hit $870 per ton in late March, up $50 per ton from the beginning of the […]
I just can’t understand how a quote by Richard Chriss (president of the American Institute for International Steel), which is outdated and clearly wrong can make it into a story. There seemed to be no balance to the story. How can this sentence be left to stand?–“With other nations already indicating that they will retaliate […]
The Chicago Business Barometer dropped to a one-year low in March. The indicator of U.S. economic activity slid 4.5 points to register 57.4. While a reading above 50 still indicates growth, three of the five components of the barometer declined. The production index was at its lowest level since October, and the new orders index […]
The metals market in the United States is ripe for mergers and acquisitions in 2018 and 2019, reported investment banker Vincent Pappalardo, managing director of Brown Gibbons Lang & Co., who spoke at the S&P Global Platts steel conference March 20 in Chicago. Valuations are up across the board. Family-owned firms that missed the opportunity […]
Global steel production grew by 3.8 percent in the three months through February. Excluding China, the pace of growth for world steel production was 3.2 percent, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel Association data. In 2017, total global steel production hit 1.687 billion metric tons, up by 5.2 percent from […]
The world’s scrap trade continues to expand as the growth of global GDP accelerates. Steel Market Update performs this analysis quarterly to help readers understand the gyrations of the global scrap market. This data is a quarter in arrears because some nations are slow to report. In the 12 months of 2017, U.S. scrap exports increased […]
Economic indicators of manufacturing activity in the United States remain strong and portend well for the first half of 2018. This report summarizes seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the U.S. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and therefore will be brief […]
Orders for manufactured durable goods jumped 3.1 percent in February, beating economists’ estimates by nearly double. The latest report from the Department of Commerce showed core capital goods (non-defense capital goods minus aircraft) rebounded 1.8 percent last month after two consecutive months of decline. The category is seen as a proxy for business spending. […]
The value of the U.S. dollar has strengthened in the last six weeks, though it remains down for the year. So far in 2018, the dollar has weakened by 8.1 percent, after a turnaround of 2.9 percent from Feb. 2 to March 16. Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data […]
The dollar has been trading in a range for eight weeks and on April 13 had the same value as it did on Feb. 14. Since its recent peak on Jan. 3, 2017, the dollar has weakened by 8.9 percent and in 2018 is down by 1.0 percent through April 13. Please see the end […]
Billings slowed slightly at architecture firms in February, reported the American Institute of Architects. AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) registered 52.0, down from 54.7 in January. February’s reading above 50 marked the fifth consecutive month of growth for billings. Inquiries into new projects and the value of new signed design contracts both increased in February, […]
When steel prices rise, so does the credit and inventory risk for mills and service centers. When steel prices rise by 40 percent, as they have in the past year, the risk puts smaller players at a big disadvantage. Service centers have been cozying up to their bankers to get extended lines of credit, some […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released another excellent employment report for February and revised the two previous months upward. February’s net creation of 313,000 jobs as reported by the BLS on March 9 was the best monthly result since July last year. To make the recent results even better, December was revised up by 15,000 […]
Net job creation in March, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday, dropped by 64 percent from February, but this was not as bad as it first looks. Figure 1 shows the 3MMA of the number of jobs created monthly since 2000 as the brown bars and the total number employed […]
Business activity grew robustly in New York State, according to firms responding to the March Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The general business conditions index climbed more than nine points to 22.5 from 13.1 in February. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. Orders and shipments in the region saw strong growth […]
Legal experts say President Trump’s efforts to use the Section 232 steel tariffs as a bargaining chip with NAFTA and other trade negotiations could make the U.S. position more difficult to defend before the World Trade Organization and the courts. An importer hit with the tariff could claim the president had exceeded his authority under […]
Fabricators and Manufacturers Association (FMA) Chief Economist Chris Kuehl believes Section 232 tariffs will not create a trade war and that most of what is happening now is nothing more than posturing. Although he told SMU that “trade wars are not unusual as countries try to protect their domestic products.” Kuehl was critical of how […]
Economic indicators of manufacturing activity remain strong and continue pointing to good demand for steel at least through mid-year. This report summarizes seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the United States. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and therefore will be brief […]
Global manufacturing expanded at a solid pace in February, according to the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The composite PMI inched downward for the second month to 54.2, indicating solid but slower growth. Industrial nations saw growth rates decelerate somewhat in February including the U.S., Eurozone, Japan and the UK. Improvement of manufacturing conditions was brisker […]
Union Partners has acquired Lamination Specialties Corp., a manufacturer of electrical steel laminations with three Chicago-area locations. The company also operates a full-service electrical steel service center. It anticipates no disruption of services as it transitions to new ownership. Lamination Specialties is the latest to join the Union Partners family, which includes Mapes & Sprowl, […]
There were no surprises in this month’s data as our SMU Price Momentum continued to reflect higher steel prices, and that expectation continues over the next 30 to 60 days. Our SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is at, or very near, all-time highs for our index. Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are optimistic […]
Manufacturing expanded for the 18th consecutive month in February, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The PMI rose 1.7 percentage points to 60.8 percent in February. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion. New orders continued to expand last month, although softening 1.2 percentage points to 65.4 percent. Production dipped 2.5 points to […]
The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell in February to its lowest level since August 2017. The barometer slipped 3.8 points from January’s reading to 61.9. Compared to a year ago, the index was up 8 percent and was above the 2017 average of 60.8 New orders were at a six-month low and production was at […]
Global steel production grew by 2.7 percent in the three months through January, though the pace of growth continued to be slowed by pollution control restrictions in China. Excluding China, the pace of growth for world steel production was 4.8 percent, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel Association data. On […]
The decline in value of the U.S. dollar on the international exchange markets has slowed in the last 30 days, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of currencies. Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The analysis of currency trends is a highly technical undertaking. Therefore, in this […]