Category: Final Thoughts

This time of year my thoughts often turn to the weather. Specifically yesterday, heat cranked up, as I sped to a café because of an Internet service outage. I

There seems to be a growing consensus that the US sheet market has peaked at a high level and could begin losing ground from here. Whether declines happen quickly or whether sheet prices bop around at current levels for a few weeks more is the primary question.

Bloomberg has reported that Nippon Steel’s $14.1-billion deal for U.S. Steel might not close until 2025 – well after the Q2/Q3 2024 close date both companies have guided toward. That’s because a national security review of the deal ($14.9 billion if you include the USS debt Nippon Steel would assume) by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) could take longer than initially expected

It’s been a sloppy start to the year for domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil and ferrous scrap markets. One of the loudest things to happen in HR this year might be something that didn’t happen at all. Namely, Nucor didn’t follow competitor Cleveland-Cliffs higher when Cliffs announced a price hike to start the year.

I expected that we’d start off January with prime scrap prices modestly up if for no other reason than industrial activity typically slows down over the holidays. And mills’ appetite for scrap typically increases in anticipation of stronger Q1 order activity.

I’d have been surprised if anyone told me just last week that the January scrap market might move lower. What we saw on Friday were offers. Not settlements. And no doubt there are still some twists and turns in store before we can say for sure which way scrap will go.

Cleveland-Cliffs didn’t wait long to roll out the first price increase of the year - $1,150 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. That’s up $50 per ton from the steelmaker’s last published price. Will anyone follow? I’ve heard some mills are meeting this week but that any announcement might not come until next week. We'll see.

SMU doesn’t do forecasts. We leave that to our colleagues at CRU. But we’re pretty good at surveys, and we’ve got a great group of readers. That’s why we decided to ask you what’s in store for 2024. The results are below, along with some insightful comments in italics.

The end of one year is often both a time for reflection, and for looking ahead. You make sense of the ups and downs from January through December. Then you wipe off the old crystal ball, and try to make out what’s in store for the next 365 days.

I was asked to do an interview for a cable news channel in Ohio about Nippon Steel’s planned acquisition of U.S. Steel for more than $14 billion.

As 2023 draws to a close, I wanted to look back on some of the key events and themes of the year. But I’m going to hold off on that idea because we were – as of Sunday afternoon - still waiting on news about arguably the biggest event of the year, the potential sale of U.S. Steel.

Thursday felt eerily quiet after a frenzy of steel and financial market news on Wednesday.

Steel is up again this week. Scrap is up by a lot this month: $85 per gross ton for busheling, by our calculations.

‘Twas two weeks before Christmas, and at our publication We kept logging steel price increases from across our fair nation.

We have seen a wave of service center transactions announced since the beginning of the month.

I want to thank the Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) for the opportunity to speak at their annual conference in Phoenix. I enjoyed the proceedings and participating in a panel for HARDI’s sheet metal/air handling council. I can’t recap all that we discussed in a few hundred words. But I’d like to share […]

It’s no surprise why spot prices are on the rise: Mills have been announcing higher flat-rolled tags for the better part of the past three months, according to our steel mill price increase calendar. A leading cause of the $305-per-ton rally since prices reached a recent bottom of $645 per ton in late September has […]

Following the United Auto Workers (UAW) union strike, organized labor seems to be enjoying a moment.

I want to address a few things in this 'Final thoughts': the latest SMU survey results, the plate market, and the potential sale of U.S. Steel.

Sometimes a journalist’s life comes with unexpected perks. That is, beyond the day-to-day of writing stories, a wayward email can come across the Inbox with an attractive invite, and the promise of free food.

There has been almost an assumption that US mills would get the $950-1,000 per ton ($47.50-50 per cwt) they were seeking on HR base and $1,150-2,000 per ton ($57.50-60 per cwt) for cold-rolled and coated base. Recall that Cliffs initially announced an increase and said it was seeking $1,000 per minimum for hot-rolled coil. Nucor […]

United Auto Workers (UAW) members have ratified a new labor contract with Detroit-based General Motors, the largest US automaker. In other words, the UAW strike that began on Sept. 15 - and that rattled the steel industry in the months leading up to it - is almost in the rear-view mirror.

Sheet prices are up again. That shouldn’t come as a surprise on the heels of mill price hikes, scrap settling up and expected to move higher over the next few months, and inventories – as our premium subscribers will learn tomorrow – moving lower for a third month.

Cleveland-Cliffs announced it would seek a minimum base price of $1,000 per ton ($50 per cwt) for hot-rolled coil (HRC) on Nov. 7. Nucor said a day later that it was aiming for $950 per ton. Why didn’t Nucor follow Cliffs up to $1,000 ton? I think there might be some possible answers in our […]

There seems to be a consensus that US sheet prices have nowhere to go but up in the short term, in part because offshore material ordered now won’t arrive until late March or even April.

It was sort of like the UAW strike. It started out small. Then got big fast. Below is a timeline of the steelmakers’ target HRC prices since the spot market bottomed out in late September.

There was consensus that steel prices would crash on the UAW strike and then rebound just as sharply once the union and the “Big Three” automakers reached tentative deals.

Sheet prices are getting back into very lofty territory. That’s assuming you can find spot tons available for the balance of 2023 – and some of you say you can’t.

The first rule of Steel 101 is that you’re free to talk about Steel 101. We actually encourage it. Last week on Tuesday and Wednesday, SMU’s Steel 101 was held in Mt. Pleasant, S.C.

I wrote on Sunday that it could be a busy week for steel. It has been.