Beginning in July 2018, Steel Market Update has been recruiting flat rolled and plate steel service centers to participate in our monthly analysis. Our goal is to produce a quality data stream out of the service centers, which can help answer questions regarding future demand from the steel distributors. We provided data sources with our […]
This Steel Market Update report examines the import share of sheet, plate, long and tubular products and 18 subcategories. Table 1 (click to enlarge) shows total supply to the market in three months through April and in 12 months through April for the four product groups and the 18 sub-categories. Supply to the market is […]
Premium subscribers to Steel Market Update receive reports on imports broken down into district of entry and source nation. This new report from SMU takes the analysis to the product detail level. Our rationale is that the more information steel buyers have about product coming into their region, the better job they can do of […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index, which measures how buyers and sellers of flat rolled and plate steels feel about their companies’ ability to be successful both now and three to six months into the future, was slightly lower this week. Demand has stayed strong, and buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel generally remain […]
Mill lead times for hot rolled steel appear to have peaked in the current market cycle, while lead times for coated steels extended a bit in the past few weeks, according to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends data. Lead times for hot rolled now average about five and a half weeks, cold rolled about […]
Steel mills appear less willing to negotiate spot prices on hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel than two weeks ago, according to respondents to this week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire, perhaps reflecting events on the trade front. Mills may anticipate less competition from imports as a result of Trump’s tariffs. Every two […]
Nearly three out of four respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week say they predict flat rolled steel prices will move even higher from here. No doubt views were influenced by the Trump administration’s decision to stand firm on tariffs, even on imports from close trading partners in Canada, Mexico and the […]
The market was shocked when President Trump revoked the exclusions and implemented tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from the United States’ closest trading partners Canada, Mexico and the EU. In this week’s canvass of the market, Steel Market Update asked industry executives if they expect any direct impact on their businesses as a result. […]
In the last 12 months, manufacturing employment has grown by 2.1 percent and construction employment by 4.1 percent, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data—both positive indicators of future steel sales. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing industries and then into private and government employees. Most of the goods-producing employees work […]
With the Trump administration eliminating the Section 232 tariff exclusions for Canada, Mexico and the European Union, it is our opinion that the squeeze on supply coupled with higher prices due to the tariff will provide cover for the domestic steel mills to raise flat rolled and plate steel prices. SMU last moved our Price […]
Service centers held essentially the same number of months of supply of flat rolled steel inventories at the end of April as they did as of the end of March 2018. SMU Service Center Months of Supply Index for flat rolled (sheet) steel is 2.7 months based on responses from 95 percent of the steel […]
Steel demand has remained surprisingly strong in 2018, even as prices have escalated and trade disputes have made purchasing riskier. But Steel Market Update data suggests that demand may be weakening. SMU canvasses the flat rolled steel market every two weeks. A clear majority (62 percent) of the respondents to the May 14 questionnaire indicated […]
Despite all the uncertainty on the trade front, demand has stayed strong, and buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel remain optimistic about their chances for success in current and near-term market conditions. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index, which measures how buyers and sellers of flat rolled and plate steels feel about their companies’ […]
Mill lead times, which had been stretching for much of the year, may have turned the corner. Flat rolled lead times are still extended, but appear to be stabilizing, according to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends data. Lead times for hot rolled now average about five and a half weeks, cold rolled about seven […]
Steel mills appear slightly more willing to negotiate spot prices on hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel than a month ago, according to respondents to this week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire. “They will negotiate, but from a high number,” commented on service center executive. “It depends on the mill, but most are […]
Premium subscribers to Steel Market Update receive reports on imports with macro data broken down by product on the national level. SMU also provides reports that detail the import tonnage received by district of entry and source nation. This new report from SMU takes the analysis even further. Using U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data, […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of import market share for sheet, plate, long and tubular products and their 18 subcategories shows big disparities by product type. Table 1 shows total supply to the market in three months through March and in 12 months through March for the four product groups and the 18 subcategories. Supply to […]
Steel Market Update began working with a large group of flat rolled and plate steel service centers last July regarding producing a new index for distributor inventories. Our initial concentration has been to collect the number of months of supply steel distrubutors were averaging as of the end of the month. Earlier this week, we […]
Last week, Steel Market Update conducted our early May flat rolled steel market trends survey. One of the key areas that we focus in on is the area of service center spot pricing to their end customers. We are interested in better understanding if steel distributors are raising, lowering or keeping spot prices the same […]
The vast majority of companies that buy foreign steel say they will continue to source product from outside the United States despite the Trump administration tariffs. About 88 percent of those responding to last week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire say they will continue to buy foreign, while the other 12 percent say they […]
With 66 percent of our service center data providers reporting, flat rolled inventories were modestly lower as of the end of April at 2.6 months of supply compared to March when inventories were at 2.7 months. A large percentage (52 percent) of the companies reporting told SMU their number of months of supply for flat […]
Since November 2008 Steel Market Update has been measuring how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel felt about their company’s ability to be successful in both the existing (current) as well as future (3-6 months into the future) market conditions. The result is our nationally known SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index which we believe […]
Compared to this time last year, flat rolled lead times are highly extended – on all products. Plate lead times, which is not on our graphic, are also highly extended, but we are treating it differently as the domestic mills are on controlled order entry/allocation with their plate customers. Hot rolled lead times are averaging […]
Extended lead times will generally lead to steel mills being stingy about offering “deals” below the company pricing guidelines. Flat rolled steel prices have essentially plateaued. There may be a small number of “deals” out there (is $860 HRC really a “deal?”), but most mills are sticking to their guns. In all four products (hot […]
Key market indicators tracked by Steel Market Update are at an all-time high for April but have shown signs of weakening in the past few months. Data released in April shows that 18 of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only 5 negative. The balance is within the historically normal band. Trends took a […]
This is Steel Market Update’s first Key Market Indicators report since April as we have renegotiated some data supply contracts and made a few changes to the content. The report still summarizes 36 data streams that we believe critically describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance to steel buyers. Data released […]
Steel Market Update is sharing this Premium content with Executive-level readers. For more information about upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Key market indicators in December were at an all-time high in the history of Steel Market Update’s analysis, but trends are deteriorating. This report summarizes 36 data streams that we believe critically describe […]
Last month, Steel Market Update forecast flat rolled steel shipments from U.S. service centers would remain steady at 109,565 tons per day in February to 109,594 tons per day in March. The Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported last week that sheet distributors shipped 107,314 tons per day, a decrease over February. Our shipment forecast […]
Once each quarter, Steel Market Update publishes the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Many analysts don’t believe these self-serving Party figures, but we include them in our reports because of the importance of China in the global steel scene, and these numbers are all that’s available. […]
Is your company at risk due to the impact of the Section 232 tariffs? Industry executives responding to Steel Market Update’s April 16 flat rolled market trends questionnaire are almost evenly split on whether the Trump administration tariffs will help or hurt their businesses. Fifty-two percent say their business is not at risk, while 48 […]