Contributor: Jack Marshall

What has happened since the August hot rolled (HR) settlement ($767 per short ton)?

The hot rolled (HR) forward curve has rebounded following the Labor Day weekend. The index this week surprised a few folks as it barely slid double figures and remains above $750 per short ton (ST).

Spot hot rolled (HR) prices continued their gradual decent, losing almost $100 per short ton (ST) in August.

The summer cycle has brought more focus around the uncertainty of where HR prices are headed.   Spot indexes continue to bleed lower despite price hikes from sheet mills. Market talk is of still lower prices as the gap grows between the slow-moving index versus expectations for HR future prices declines. (The index likely reflects smaller, […]

A short week with the July 4th Holiday kind of sums up recent HR futures activity. Subdued spot activity and not much change from the previous weeks’ indexes leaves the market time to roll exposures. The recent price increases appear to have given spot prices a pause. Heading into the cyclical summer soft spot, mills are […]

Go figure, in the last month, HR spot has continued to decline. The index tied to CME HR futures has given up $140/ST ($1,130/ST to $990/ST). A look at the fundamentals would appear to support the latest market direction. The list includes declining steelmaking component prices (zinc, coking coal, iron ore and scrap), a sharply […]

After surprising the market watchers of HR futures in the first week of May, the index finally gave back $40 per short ton (ST) in the second week, coming in just shy of $1,130/ST.  Interestingly, the May futures settlement was almost unchanged from April 10 . While the market may be in a hurry for price […]

Surprise! Instead of $10-$20 per-short-ton (ST) increase expected by most the index for the CME HR jumped $50/ST this week. This caught many by surprise as recent futures activity seemed to reflect a more bearish sentiment. It appears small retail truckload transactions from the mills carried the day. Wednesday HR futures volume was healthy as […]

I referred to the fast-paced mill price increase announcements for HR back on March 9. The HR spot index had just moved up over $100 per short ton (ST) from the prior week to set the monthly contract price at $1,017/ST. HR spot indexes have continued to move higher albeit at a slower pace. Hot Rolled […]

I referred to the fast-paced mill price increase announcements for HR back on March 9. The HR spot index had just moved up over $100 per short ton (ST) from the prior week to set the monthly contract price at $1,017/ST. HR spot indexes have continued to move higher albeit at a slower pace. Hot Rolled […]

What a difference a month makes in light of a difficult forecast environment for hot rolled (HR) prices. The mills have been raising HR spot prices faster than folks can track, and the futures appear to be in lockstep as lead times continue to extend. While steel capacity utilization rate seems stuck in the mid-70% […]

Inflation indeed!  Hot-rolled (HR) spot indexes have risen about $40 per short ton (ST) since the beginning of February. HR futures settlements for the period between Feb. 1 and Feb. 16 also reflect rising prices. The average weighted price for Q2’23 is up over $108/ST to $902/ST; Q3’23 up $65/ST to $853/ST; and Q4’23 up […]

Healthy hot-rolled (HR) futures activity year to date has been spurred by a pickup in physical sales as the market breaks into the first quarter of 2023.   Open interest climbed from roughly 440,000 ST a side to about 520,000 ST a side before the January contract rolled off, and daily trading volume averaged north of […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Hot-rolled futures have pushed higher in year-end thin trading. December daily futures trading volumes hovered around 19,000 short tons (ST) per […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Over the last month, HR index prices have continued to decline, but at a much slower pace. The most recent index […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled The indicated value of HR spot has declined roughly $31 per short ton ($687/ST to $656/ST) this month. For comparison purposes, […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled HR spot physical indexes have remained anchored just above the mid-$700/net ton area with one more week to go before the […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Hot-rolled (HR) futures participants market watch as they wait for signs that demand will return even as the dollar continues to […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled This futures market has no direction currently, summing up the sentiment in hot rolled as of late. After a slight index […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Weekly changes in the value of spot HR have continued to drop an average of about $30/net ton but it should […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled The HR futures market has been somewhat subdued this month, which is reflected in the price changes for July. Over the […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled After a brisk bout of futures activity in HR to close out the first half of 2022, we are experiencing much […]

The following article on the hot-rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled HR futures are coming back to life after a quiet spell in May. Month to date in June more than 225,000 […]

The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Physical HR prices continue to decline at a steady pace. Spot indexes have declined almost $140/ST since the end of […]

The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Recent HR spot price increases have continued to decelerate this month as prices near $1,500/ton. Initial market metallic supply concerns […]

The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled As the Russia/Ukraine conflict continues to smolder the upward trend in spot HR prices appears to have stalled this week […]

The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled The Ukraine/Russia war continues to fester, leaving all markets with maximum uncertainty. HR physical prices have risen just over $300/ST […]

The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled In spite of a large drop in the HR index this past week (sub $950/ST), the forward curve in HR […]

The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled Will the velocity of the down move in hot rolled prices be maintained as HR price spreads to global prices […]

The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), scrap and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Hot Rolled For obvious reasons 2021 was a very active year for HR futures – the runaway rise in prices helped bring […]